May 2026 Medium / Long Range

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC going with El Nino almost to a T

[WxUSAF]

Euro and GFS AI models very bullish for a washout holiday weekend. Would rather it be during the week of course, but 2-3” of rain over 2-4 days is sooo needed.

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro and GFS AI models very bullish for a washout holiday weekend. Would rather it be during the week of course, but 2-3” of rain over 2-4 days is sooo needed.

And by Friday the forecast will be 30% chance of showers with the usual .10" precip with higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

[AnEndlessMaze]

Residents of Stephens City tending their cacti gardens look up in bewilderment as the newly-moved rain magnet is powered up IMBY for the Shenandoah Valley next weekend.   

 

 

 

[frd]

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro and GFS AI models very bullish for a washout holiday weekend. Would rather it be during the week of course, but 2-3” of rain over 2-4 days is sooo needed.

Wonder when the WPC comes around ?  ( of course this only goes to Sunday, however, most of the rainfall day 6 and 7  is SE of our region. ) 

 

 

[konksw]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Wonder when the WPC comes around ?  ( of course this only goes to Sunday, however, most of the rainfall day 6 and 7  is SE of our region. ) 

 

 

It’s a week away. It’d be silly to have that much confidence 

[87storms]

6 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

And by Friday the forecast will be 30% chance of showers with the usual .10" precip with higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

The important thing is that it’ll likely be mostly cloudy and windy.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS 4 day precipitation mean thru Memorial Day.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Looks like the forecast has increased a few degrees to 95-96 for a high both Tues and Wed

[dailylurker]

Poof goes the weekend storm. I wonder if we go full severe drought and water restrictions here soon. 

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Poof goes the weekend storm. I wonder if we go full severe drought and water restrictions here soon. 

????

I just clicked through all the varsity models on TT and they all have it in some shape or form? None are 2-3” of rain in the overnight runs, but still solid…more like 1.5-2”.

[dailylurker]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

????

I just clicked through all the varsity models on TT and they all have it in some shape or form? None are 2-3” of rain in the overnight runs, but still solid…more like 1.5-2”.

I only looked at my point and click and it lost the rain lol

[BlizzardNole]

LWX sounds optimistic saying rainfall from frequent showers should add up.  I know a lot of people would be disappointed with a rainy Memorial Day Weekend, but I'm begging for it even though we have plans like everyone else.

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

????

I just clicked through all the varsity models on TT and they all have it in some shape or form? None are 2-3” of rain in the overnight runs, but still solid…more like 1.5-2”.

The 00z Euro kept things south and the 06z GFS depends a lot on the Wed/Thus wave with light precip beyond that.  It isn't what we want, but it also isn't set in stone.

[frd]

54 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The 00z Euro kept things south and the 06z GFS depends a lot on the Wed/Thus wave with light precip beyond that.  It isn't what we want, but it also isn't set in stone.

Follows the WPC from yesterday.  Today's forecast from them is even less rainfall,  things look rather bleak

[CAPE]

44 minutes ago, frd said:

Follows the WPC from yesterday.  Today's forecast from them is even less rainfall,  things look rather bleak

All of the Ens means and also the AI are advertising at least a moderate amount of rain late week through the weekend. Multiple chances in that window so hopefully the area cashes in on some of it.

[frd]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

All of the Ens means and also the AI are advertising at least a moderate amount of rain late week through the weekend. Multiple chances in that window so hopefully the area cashes in on some of it.

Any thoughts about June turning the corner with more rainfall via the WAR. 

[WxUSAF]

9 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The 00z Euro kept things south and the 06z GFS depends a lot on the Wed/Thus wave with light precip beyond that.  It isn't what we want, but it also isn't set in stone.

12z runs seemed positive overall. Op euro seems to push the main bulk of next weekends precip to our west, but we get some still. EPS is wetter. 

[bncho]

hot hot hot hot hot

[Paleocene]

Pretty decent agreement on the ensembles for an inch or so of rain over the broad area of the forum, over the next 7 days. Hope it pans out. We need a lot more than that.

[Interstate]

We will need a ark if the GFS is correct.

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, Interstate said:

We will need an ark if the GFS is correct.

GGEM same 

[SnowenOutThere]

40 minutes ago, Interstate said:

We will need an ark if the GFS is correct.

I like how at the end of its run we get days of summer storms. Hot and humid of course, but with daily storms is nice.