May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[dendrite]

10am…sure why not

[vortex95]

Shouldn't we have a separate thread for this upcoming storm now?  It certainly warrants one IMHO!

Give the super snow weenies on this board, I expect at least one to travel to the mountains of ME/NH just to experience a truly rare event.  We need in situ snowfall obs as well!  

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

lol

Nice anomalous storm track.   Hopefully someone snows just for pure entertainment. 

[dendrite]

12k pounds here briefly. What a wild sounding for here on 5/30. Big lift in the whole column but maxed in the DGZ. 

 

[CoastalWx]

I mean let’s do it 

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro is strongest with winds.  Even has 50+ here. Sell. Won’t be close to that except coast 

[dendrite]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean let’s do it 

Yeah the day is shot. If it’s 40 and rain versus a wild hour or two of 33.5 and snow just give me the flakes. Really wish it was June though. lol

[CoastalWx]

47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro is strongest with winds.  Even has 50+ here. Sell. Won’t be close to that except coast 

Nothing is close to 50 there. Maybe 40 max.

[WinterWolf]

45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah the day is shot. If it’s 40 and rain versus a wild hour or two of 33.5 and snow just give me the flakes. Really wish it was June though. lol

Well, you’re dam close to it being June…but I get the sentiment.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Shouldn't we have a separate thread for this upcoming storm now?  It certainly warrants one IMHO!

Give the super snow weenies on this board, I expect at least one to travel to the mountains of ME/NH just to experience a truly rare event.  We need in situ snowfall obs as well!  

 

Perhaps you and @CoastalWxcan rent a cabin together in the wilderness of Maine?

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So much hype so much Stein 

February 1969 in May, yay.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Perhaps you and @CoastalWxcan rent a cabin together in the wilderness of Maine?

I thought you wanted to come along?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I thought you wanted to come along?

I don't think Boris would like that very much.

[CoastalWx]

Man looking at the hi res, there's a mini warm seclusion with this below 850. Sort of adds some lower level instability near the coast. Might get wild for an hour or two there for sure. We'd be dropping pantalones in the winter with this.

[CoastalWx]

55kts at 950. That gonna do a little damage. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah the day is shot. If it’s 40 and rain versus a wild hour or two of 33.5 and snow just give me the flakes. Really wish it was June though. lol

I'm more intrigued by the near or at lowest possible qualitative ranking day on the proverbial misery scale, immediately turning around to a top 10 qualifier on Sunday.  24 hours

That's a (probable) under the radar consideration?    Like going from 0 to 10 in 24 hours does not typically happen. 

In the more objective sense, this really is a rare phenomenon, whether it snows or not.  Those snow mongers with hardons on May 30th are kind of eye-rolling to be honest.  It's like they have no built in limitations or cold/snot bullshit filters in their every day interpretation of reality.  Could be July and they be posting "we watch" with thumb up emojis on autopilot.    This has looked suspiciously like it could be grapple and probably flip to big aggies in the 1500+ range for awhile. I've heard of snow in the higher hills and mountains pretty late before.   Someone should bother to look up occurrence of snow at 2,000 feet+ for all months, and see what the return rate really is.   To me this looks like it's enabling some cold cism. 

But 2 aspects are true.  It is a both a cold anomaly, while doing so in a highly unusual way. I think folks are too hung up on getting the cold itself to happen, without noticing that there is a 24 hour pass through a -2 or even -3 SD cold event where both the event entry and exit are extraordinarily steep - big deltas.  For me anywho ... that's the fantastic.  

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm more intrigued by the near or at lowest possible qualitative ranking day on the proverbial misery scale, immediately turning around to a top 10 qualifier on Sunday.

That's a (probable) under the radar consideration?    Like going from 0 to 10 in 24 hours. 

At least this storm is interesting.  Better than 48 hours of drizzle and fog.  Of course worse than a 75/55 and sunny Saturday.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Nothing is close to 50 there. Maybe 40 max.

Euro gusts show it . It’s wrong 

[Typhoon Tip]

it'd be funner of this suddenly cold pool insertion aloft were to pass into the region at 18z instead of 06z... 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

As an aside ... to help (maybe) elucidate some of the scale of this anomaly, did you know that there is a teleconnector where eastern mid latitude N/A tends to trough/ridge at the same time as western Europe? 

It's just an aspect we covered in FAST II back in school.  There are a few of these around the world.  All they really are, are just arguments surrounding standard wave spacing in the L/W distribution - the stable #s tending to be the return state, is physically and also statistically (both) confirming these quasi-relationships. 

That said, ... a +3 SD or greater NW-W European ordeal, with its 95 to 100 F whopper pre June heatwave days over end is a circumstance that DEFINITELY is incongruous with the former inference.  We should be hot too.

But here's the thing ... this event is sub-index scaled. It's small. Too small really to be 'detected' numerically by the teleonnection inference.   It's like reaching into an ice chest, balling up a snow ball, and throwing at us.  It's moving S parabolically within a L/W axis, but it's anomalous relative to the L/W itself. 

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As an aside ... to help (maybe) elucidate some of the scale of this anomaly, did you know that there is a teleconnector where eastern mid latitude N/A tends to trough/ridge at the same time as western Europe? 

It's just an aspect we covered in FAST II back in school.  There are a few of these around the world.  All they really are, are just arguments surrounding standard wave spacing in the L/W distribution - the stable #s tending to be the return state, is physically and also statistically (both) confirming these quasi-relationships. 

That said, ... a +3 or greater NW-W European ordeal, with its 95 to 100 F whopper pre June heatwave days over end is a circumstance that DEFINITELY is incongruous with the former inference.  We should be hot too.

But here's the thing ... this even is sub-index scaled. It's small. Too small really to be 'detected' numerically by the teleonnection inference.   It's like reaching into an ice chest, balling up a snow ball, and throwing at us.  It's moving S parabolically within a L/W axis, but it's anomalous relative to the L/W itself. 

Just to make sure you just weren't making up s***. 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Just to make sure you just weren't making up s***. 

 

 

heh, what was the conversation about ? 

Oh, I see. yeah

[weatherwiz]

At least on Monday we should get some cold pool small hailers 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hey!  A thread might be fun

 

[vortex95]

Also posted on the thread just made for this upcoming storm.

Interesting what the 12z HRRR shows.  It has a very high QPF max of 5.77" over SW ME.  Other models do not show this, but sfc low is a tight SUCKA and I wonder about mesoscale factors.  SPC has general tstms outlooked and convection stirs things up better aloft.  This results in stronger downdrafts to mix down the cold air aloft better.  850 and 925 mb temps are cold enough by 12z in this area and that kind of pcpn intensity?  The ante is very high here!  Can you imagine on the coast w/ super paste and G50kt?  I'd love to be at Hampton Beach Sat AM!

The reason the HRRR shows this big pcpn max in SW ME is b/c the area is at the pivot point of the N side of the comma head, so they cash in w/ a heavy pcpn area nearly stationary in a relative sense.  Such a scenario is not unreasonable and the global models would not pick up on something like this.  So we may have two pcpn maxes, one over the White Mtns and another coastal ME/NH.

 

Look at the HRRR sim radar late this eve/very early Sat over NH/VT, TRW+ FQT LTGICCG surprise before the S+??? 

This is about as good as it gets for the uncertainty factor for big S+ and "PHUN 'N GAMES!"  Scott should be impressed!  Could be a truly exceptional event.  Big snowfall like this so late (higher and lower elevations)?  You have to go back to the 19th century (1816 and 1842 in June) for anything later.  MWN had 24.9" in the May 25-26, 1967 event and they could exceed that for the May single storm record.
 

[Damage In Tolland]

Dry and partly cloudy here tomorrow while it pounds rain S Wey to Pope 

[Ginx snewx]

14 hours ago, dendrite said:

10am…sure why not

MT Washington 

[Ginx snewx]

54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dry and partly cloudy here tomorrow while it pounds rain S Wey to Pope 

All models give you at least.  .11 

[Ginx snewx]

On 5/28/2026 at 1:14 PM, dendrite said:

It’s not going to change that much with 95% of the days already baked in.

Sure some will. Difference between top 5 and top 15 are tenths in some cases 

[Torch Tiger]