May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

46 hrs of nonstop rain…the jackpot for this thing has been right f’n here. And still raining moderately. As I said yesterday relentless.  Started 10:30 Saturday morning…and hasn’t stopped yet.  Kevin there hasn’t been a dry period yet this 3 day weekend….can a brotha get a break later today…please? 

Close to 3 inches here-what an awful holiday weekend at least we salvage this PM to some extent.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, vortex95 said:

00z GFS significantly stronger and tucked back farther W w/ the closed 500 low for May 30.  It shows 4-8" parts of nrn NH.  What stands out is that the 00z GFS/ICON and the earlier UKMET show substantial QPF, 2-3" in some areas.  This is absolutely key for the Scott S+ this time of year (intensity).

I like that the GFS is showing more sfc low development just S of the region for more ageostrophic flow.
 

mm   what stands out to me is that all these operational runs are wildly colder than their respective ensemble clusters at 850 mb by several degrees.   

Just a-priori on operational model guidance in meridian/slope flow types, they tend to carry an amplitude bias in the mid range to a significant correlation frequency.  

I'll concede if by hour 72 the means have deepened, otherwise for this type of synoptic hemisphere we've seen this kind of cold sell before.    

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Close to 3 inches here-what an awful holiday weekend at least we salvage this PM to some extent.

Ya we gotta be over 2” here…a big soaker for sure. 

[weatherwiz]

Heat kicked on this morning  

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Saturday was dry until late day for most people. There in SW CT you were unlucky. This afternoon should slowly improve 

Well

your first mistake is saying that my area is SW CT…anybody who knows my area knows this is not even close to SW CT.  SW of you For sure…but not SW CT.  WOR Central CT is the accurate location. It was raining everywhere west of the river by Saturday morning. So your call was way off in that regard. East and Northeast areas, where you are managed to stay dry. But for the majority of CT it was a wet Saturday.  

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well

your first mistake is saying that my area is SW CT…anybody who knows my area knows this is not even close to SW CT.  SW of you For sure…but not SW CT.  WOR Central CT is the accurate location. It was raining everywhere west of the river by Saturday morning. So your call was way off in that regard. East and Northeast areas, where you are managed to stay dry. But for the majority of CT it was a wet Saturday.  

Southington is def not SW CT  

I wouldn't even consider Waterbury as being in SW CT...probably more so getting towards Southbury

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Is this really necessary?

GYX has those posted essentially every day from  mid-may to mid-june.

[Typhoon Tip]

models keep insisting ...some more aggressively so than others, that the rains end and the sky parts over the next 3 hours, west to east.   Even some hints at a rapid temp recovery.  

we'll see.  Right now this band appears to be over performing compared to the NAM/Euro.     

[SJonesWX]

1/2” so far today, after 1/2” yesterday. closing in on 4” MTD.

Saturday was decent here, yesterday rain all day. Lovely weekend, raining pretty good this morning, but it appears to be getting brighter out

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Southington is def not SW CT  

I wouldn't even consider Waterbury as being in SW CT...probably more so getting towards Southbury

SW CT is basically Fairfield County

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

models keep insisting ...some more aggressively so than others, that the rains end and the sky parts over the next 3 hours, west to east.   Even some hints at a rapid temp recovery.  

we'll see.  Right now this band appears to be over performing compared to the NAM/Euro.     

it's over here and the sun is trying to poke out-we're up to 60-definitely going to verify warm and dry here from here on out.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's over here and the sun is trying to poke out-we're up to 60-definitely going to verify warm and dry here from here on out.

except that the trees will be dripping through 4 pm LOL

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s another line of showers in E NY state that still has to come thru . Gonna be mid afternoon here and evening ENE till it’s dry and sunnier 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's over here and the sun is trying to poke out-we're up to 60-definitely going to verify warm and dry here from here on out.

That’s great to hear! Hoping it makes it rapidly NE…although I should have the same weather as you do currently, since I’m SW CT too lmao…and it’s still raining here at the moment. 

[metagraphica]

33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Heat kicked on this morning  

Yep, was thinking that yesterday as the house got down to 65 and I kicked the heat on. What a cold miserable 3-day weekend.

[kdxken]

I'm in Somers Connecticut. Sun trying to break through.  Might be a nice day out west.

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Southington is def not SW CT  

I wouldn't even consider Waterbury as being in SW CT...probably more so getting towards Southbury

We know lol…ya, Waterbury definitely isn’t SW CT either. Fairfield County Is SW CT…he knows that too, he was trying to be funny. 

[BombsAway1288]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next weekend looks fine. 60’s and dry . Gfs will fail again 

You’ve gone from 80’s to 70’s and now 60’s in the span of 2 days. You did the same for this past weekend and ended up wrong.
 

Will it and spin as much as you want but today is shot too as it pours rain with temps in the mid 50’s. By the time it clears out later, the day is over with. 
 

Your shtick is/has been very old 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I'm in Somers Connecticut. Sun trying to break through.  Might be a nice day out west.

We’re hoping…we have a couple barbecues to go to, be nice if it can dry out?  I’m thinking it will west of the river anyway. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I'm in Somers Connecticut. Sun trying to break through.  Might be a nice salvaging part of the day out west.

 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Yep, was thinking that yesterday as the house got down to 65 and I kicked the heat on. What a cold miserable 3-day weekend.

For sure!  We at 48 hrs of nonstop rain here now. But hoping this is about it.  

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

You’ve gone from 80’s to 70’s and now 60’s in the span of 2 days. You did the same for this past weekend and ended up wrong.
 

Will it and spin as much as you want but today is shot too as it pours rain with temps in the mid 50’s. By the time it clears out later, the day is over with. 
 

Your shtick is/has been very old 

Out east there, you’re in the same predicament today with the rain lingering, as we were out west here Saturday morning, when the rain moved in at 10:30 am and ruined the full day.  Where as you guys were dry Saturday during the day, and now hopefully we dry out early today on this end of things. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Heaviest rain of the weekend thus far 

[BombsAway1288]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Out east there, you’re in the same predicament today with the rain lingering, as we were out west here Saturday morning, when the rain moved in at 10:30 am and ruined the full day.  Where as you guys were dry Saturday during the day, and now hopefully we dry out early today on this end of things. 

Without a doubt. I think this day is done for anybody east of ORH. Might get some clearing early evening but by then the day and holiday are over. Nobody is going out after the weekend we’ve all had with work/school tomorrow 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

You’ve gone from 80’s to 70’s and now 60’s in the span of 2 days. You did the same for this past weekend and ended up wrong.
 

Will it and spin as much as you want but today is shot too as it pours rain with temps in the mid 50’s. By the time it clears out later, the day is over with. 
 

Your shtick is/has been very old 

GWDLT and suggest you get out and step away from weather boards 

[WinterWolf]

I can gladly report that the rain has finally stopped here. Now let’s bring the clearing in. 

[BombsAway1288]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GWDLT and suggest you get out and step away from weather boards 

I’m perfectly fine. You seem to be the one really struggling with your forecasts which has been pointed out by many.

Bombed? Hate to see it