April 2026

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

2009 type summer, incoming?

2009 was another one of those years that led into a strong el nino. All the colder Junes in the last 30 years have happened in lead-ups to strong or super el ninos (1997, 2009, and 2023). 1997 and 2009 both finished with well below average summer temps, while 2023 finished near normal.

2015, on the other hand, had a near record warm May, and a warmer than normal summer. Same with 1991. Oddly enough, both years were preceded by borderline warm neutral/weak el ninos. The summers before, 1990 and 2014, were much cooler.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Cleared 1.5” here. Ground is nice and saturated even through thick evergreen trees.


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[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

2009 type summer, incoming?

2009 would probably be too big of an ask in this much warmer climate. It was the 2nd coolest June and July on record at spots like Islip.

2023 was our last summer with a developing El Niño that became very strong. Was cooler overall  than the other 2020s summers so far but still not really cool by historical standards.

 

Time Series Summary for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx) 10 Coolest June 1 to July 31 Periods
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1965-07-31	67.9	0
2	2009-07-31	68.2	0
3	1978-07-31	68.5	0
4	1979-07-31	68.7	0
-	1968-07-31	68.7	0
5	1992-07-31	68.9	0
6	1982-07-31	69.0	0
7	1964-07-31	69.2	0
8	1972-07-31	69.3	0
9	1985-07-31	69.4	0
10	2000-07-31	69.6	0
-	1996-07-31	69.6	0

 

[[email protected]]

33 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2009 was another one of those years that led into a strong el nino. All the colder Junes in the last 30 years have happened in lead-ups to strong or super el ninos (1997, 2009, and 2023). 1997 and 2009 both finished with well below average summer temps, while 2023 finished near normal.

2015, on the other hand, had a near record warm May, and a warmer than normal summer. Same with 1991. Oddly enough, both years were preceded by borderline warm neutral/weak el ninos. The summers before, 1990 and 2014, were much cooler.

We might be heading towards one of our coolest May's since 1967.

[Stormlover74]

Looks like Wednesday night into Thursday another decent rain event 

[MANDA]

1.52" here for the event.  A nice slow and steady soaking for this sub forum.

Click map to enlarge.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2009 would probably be too big of an ask in this much warmer climate. It was the 2nd coolest June and July on record at spots like Islip.

2023 was our last summer with a developing El Niño that became very strong. Was cooler overall  than the other 2020s summers so far but still not really cool by historical standards.

 

Time Series Summary for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx) 10 Coolest June 1 to July 31 Periods
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1965-07-31	67.9	0
2	2009-07-31	68.2	0
3	1978-07-31	68.5	0
4	1979-07-31	68.7	0
-	1968-07-31	68.7	0
5	1992-07-31	68.9	0
6	1982-07-31	69.0	0
7	1964-07-31	69.2	0
8	1972-07-31	69.3	0
9	1985-07-31	69.4	0
10	2000-07-31	69.6	0
-	1996-07-31	69.6	0

 

4 out of the Top 8 happened in developing strong el nino years.

[steve392]

Just under 1.5" 9f much needed rains.  New rain guage makes it easy to read. 

[WX-PA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

2009 would probably be too big of an ask in this much warmer climate. It was the 2nd coolest June and July on record at spots like Islip.

2023 was our last summer with a developing El Niño that became very strong. Was cooler overall  than the other 2020s summers so far but still not really cool by historical standards.

 

Time Series Summary for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx) 10 Coolest June 1 to July 31 Periods
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1965-07-31	67.9	0
2	2009-07-31	68.2	0
3	1978-07-31	68.5	0
4	1979-07-31	68.7	0
-	1968-07-31	68.7	0
5	1992-07-31	68.9	0
6	1982-07-31	69.0	0
7	1964-07-31	69.2	0
8	1972-07-31	69.3	0
9	1985-07-31	69.4	0
10	2000-07-31	69.6	0
-	1996-07-31	69.6	0

 

Going into strong Nino'usually means cool Summer, warm Winter..But with this strange climate we're in who knows?

[bluewave]

Just now, WX-PA said:

Going into strong Nino'usually means cool Summer, warm Winter..But with this strange climate we're in who knows?

It does look like May will at least start out cooler than average with all the blocking and the upper low parked over the Northeast. Will be interesting to see if we can get some improvement heading out toward Memorial Day. Still beyond the reach of the models. 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Going into strong Nino'usually means cool Summer, warm Winter..But with this strange climate we're in who knows?

2023 - Yes 

2015 - Warm summer, warm winter

2009 - Cool summer, cool winter

1997 - Yes

1991 - Warm summer, warm winter

1986 - Cool summer, cool winter (1987 - Warm summer, cool winter)

1982 - Yes

1972 - Yes

1965 - Cool summer, cool winter

1957 - Cool summer, cool winter

[psv88]

56 and some sun. At least its possible to be outside 

[psv88]

Gotta love April. 50s in Raleigh and 70 in Montreal 

[donsutherland1]

The recent rain delivered 0.50"-1.50" of rain to the region, along with some locally higher figures. Rainfall amounts included:

Bridgeport: 0.89"
Islip: 1.31"
New Haven: 0.74"
New York City-Central Park: 1.39"
New York City-JFK Airport: 1.49"
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.45"
Newark: 1.64"
Philadelphia: 0.51"
White Plains: 1.07"

Tomorrow through Wednesday will be somewhat warmer with highs reaching the lower and middle 60s.

However, another shot of rain followed by cooler temperatures will arrive during the middle of the week. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely for Wednesday into Thursday. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was -28.05 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.960 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[TriPol]

Is there a potential frost on tap next weekend? Can't think of a worse time for farmers who have been hit hard this spring.

 

[MANDA]

Chilly this morning.  Overnight low of 36.  

[FPizz]

34 this morning, 1.27" of rain this weekend.  

[SACRUS]

61 / 48 off a low of 35.  Nicest day of the week coming up.  Not bad Tuesday but clouds build in ahead of the next batch of rain on Wed/Thu.  Continued cool and possibly wet one or the whole weekend.  Moderation betwen May 5 - 9th and next shot at 70s or warmer then but it may take till mid month to push heights / riding east for any persistent tineframe.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Did touch 70 today - gorgeous out.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 94 (1990)
NYC: 92 (1915)
LGA: 89 (1990)
JFK: 77 (1949)


Lows:

EWR: 33 (1933)
NYC: 36 (1932)
LGA: 38 (1946)
JFK: 34 (1967)

Historical:
 

1898: The first Weather Bureau kite was launched in Topeka, Kansas to report daily, early morning, atmospheric observations. By year's end, 16 additional launch sites would be in operation. 

1899 - A tornado struck Kirksville, MO, killing 34 persons and destroying 300 buildings. (David Ludlum)

 

1912: The April 27-28, 1912 outbreak was the climax of a wild, week-long period of severe weather that occurred in Oklahoma. Strong to violent tornadoes struck portions of central and north-central Oklahoma on April 20, 1912. Also, a violent tornado hit Ponca City, OK on April 25, 1912. From the 27 through the 28th, 16 tornadoes rated F2 or greater touched down in the state with 6 of them rated F4. About 40 people were killed, and the storms injured 120 people. 

1931 - The temperature at Pahala, located on the main island of Hawaii, soared to 100 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1931: The temperature at Pahala, located on the main island of Hawaii, soared to 100 degrees to establish a state record.

1942 - A destructive tornado swept across Rogers County and Mayes County in Oklahoma. The tornado struck the town of Pryor killing 52 persons and causing two million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Forty-two cities in the western and south central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 87 degrees at Olympia WA was an April record, and highs of 92 degrees at Boise ID, 95 degrees at Monroe LA, and 96 degrees at Sacramento CA tied April records. (The National Weather Summary) More than 300 daily temperature records fell by the wayside during a two week long heat wave across thirty-four states in the southern and western U.S. Thirteen cities established records for the month of April. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1988 - Mount Washington NH reported seven feet of snow in ten days, pushing their snowfall total for the month past the previous record of 89.3 inches set in 1975. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas. Hail up to four and a half inches in diameter caused five million dollars damage around Omaha NE. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, and there were 160 other reports of large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Severe thunderstorms spawned thirteen tornadoes in Texas and twelve in Louisiana. A tornado southwest of Coolidge TX injured eight persons and caused more than five million dollars damage. There were also eighty-five reports of large hail and damaging winds, with baseball size hail reported at Mexia TX and Shreveport LA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Forty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Records highs included 94 degrees at Charleston WV, 95 degrees at Baltimore MD and96 degrees at Richmond VA. (The National Weather Summary)

 

2003: For only the 11th time since records began in 1871, hail was observed in Key West Florida. A severe thunderstorm produced hail to 1.75 inches in diameter which easily broke the previous record of a half an inch in diameter which was set on May 10, 1961.

2011 - An estimated 305 tornados between the 27th and 28th sets a record for the largest outbreak ever recorded, including two EF-5s, four EF-4s and 21 EF-3s. Arkansas through Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, southern Tennessee, Virginia to Pennsylvania and New York were all affected. An estimated 300 died including 210 in Alabama alone. This brought the April total past 600, the most in any month in recorded US weather history.

[SACRUS]

SST Anomaly

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Wednesday will see temperatures reach the lower and middle 60s, with tomorrow being the warmer day.

However, another shot of rain followed by somewhat cooler temperatures will arrive during the middle of the week. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely for Wednesday into Thursday. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was -19.11 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.189 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[psv88]

70 today. Gorgeous 

[the_other_guy]

On 4/26/2026 at 10:46 AM, bluewave said:

2009 would probably be too big of an ask in this much warmer climate. It was the 2nd coolest June and July on record at spots like Islip.

2023 was our last summer with a developing El Niño that became very strong. Was cooler overall  than the other 2020s summers so far but still not really cool by historical standards.

 

Time Series Summary for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx) 10 Coolest June 1 to July 31 Periods
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1965-07-31	67.9	0
2	2009-07-31	68.2	0
3	1978-07-31	68.5	0
4	1979-07-31	68.7	0
-	1968-07-31	68.7	0
5	1992-07-31	68.9	0
6	1982-07-31	69.0	0
7	1964-07-31	69.2	0
8	1972-07-31	69.3	0
9	1985-07-31	69.4	0
10	2000-07-31	69.6	0
-	1996-07-31	69.6	0

 

Just for perspective, 2009 was 17 years ago. The climate has not rapidly changed in 17 years. Declaring it has is disingenuous 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Just for perspective, 2009 was 17 years ago. The climate has not rapidly changed in 17 years. Declaring it has is disingenuous 

The climate has had three shifts to the warmer since 2009-2010. Our summers became warmer beginning with the 2010 summer. We haven’t had any cooler summers  against the long term average like in 2009 or earlier since then which we would normally get every several years.

The only three cooler summers since then against the recent much warmer means like 2023, 2017, and 2014 have been closer to or a little warmer than the older long term average. Most of the summers since then have been near the top rankings for warmth.

Starting with December 2015, the U.S. winters have become much warmer to the point where we have seen many new top warmest winters for the CONUS and no significantly colder ones since then. The most recent temperature jump in 2023-2024 produced the #1 warmest CONUS winter on record that winter and the #2 warmest winter this year in 2025-2026.

The concern going forward is that we will get another baseline temperature jump with this developing very strong El Niño for 2026-2027 that will just add to the previous ones since 2015-2016.

I can fully understand your point of view that the climate has not rapidly changed. Since it’s human nature to normalize the recent 3-7 of weather as nothing unusual.  Plus it may not be that obvious when we get used to more Mid-Atlantic style temperatures like used to be normal for VA. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

PHL Summers since 2010

Below 1981-2010 average (75.9)

2014 (75.7)

2023 (75.8, although JAS averaged 76.1, which is above the 1981-2010 average)

Above 1981-2010 average, but below 1991-2020 average (76.7)

2013 (76.6)

2017 (76.4)

Currently, the 2001-present average is 77.2, which would put 2018 (76.9) below it. Depending on how warm the summers of 2026-2030 are, last summer (77.4) could end up below the 2001-2030 average.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

30.9 at KFOK and 45 here in Lynbrook. Same island extreme differences in radiational cooling.


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[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

PHL Summers since 2010

Below 1981-2010 average (75.9)

2014 (75.7)

2023 (75.8, although JAS averaged 76.1, which is above the 1981-2010 average)

Above 1981-2010 average, but below 1991-2020 average (76.7)

2013 (76.6)

2017 (76.4)

Currently, the 2001-present average is 77.2, which would put 2018 (76.9) below it. Depending on how warm the summers of 2026-2030 are, last summer (77.4) could end up below the 2001-2030 average.

2009 was the last average temperature summer in Philly against the 1951-2000 mean. This was the first slightly cooler winter in Philly since 2015-2016. So it’s pretty representative of the wider trends across the region and nation. 
 

 

[Brian5671]

Where'd the big rainy pattern go-Upton has showers Wed night/Thurs AM and then nothing through the weekend

[SACRUS]

55 / 38 clear (for now)  Clouds arriving by noon / early afternoon.  Still think we'll push rain totals 0.50 - 1.50 in places but most between 05 and 1.00 inches Wed into Thu.   Thu / Fri kind of a repeat of Mon/Tue in reverse Overall cooler pattern - clouds Saturday and still watch for unsettled progression.  Trough into the east now to persist towards the first week of May.  Moderation towards  mid May.  Could be looking at a 2008 style May.