April 2026

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the usual NJ warm spots can see their first 90° readings of the season this week.

 

 

95 west of the Garden State Parkway, 55 just east of Sandy Hook. That must be showing a ridiculous Ambrose Jet. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

95 west of the Garden State Parkway, 55 just east of Sandy Hook. That must be showing a ridiculous Ambrose Jet. 

Tuesday is looking to be the real Ambrose jet day. Marine forecast has the wind going from sw to south and increasing which is a tell. Wednesday has the best potential for 80 on the south shore with light winds in the morning.


.

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

this was probably the last day i worn the winter gear until this fall..

I already put away mine . I do have 3 jackets out just incase.

[MANDA]

Expecting Red Flag Warnings and some possible brush fires later this week.  Rising temperatures, low humidity, some gusty winds and drying fuel.  

[Prue11]

Dropped to 31 this morning 

[donsutherland1]

Although readings were confined to the lower and middle 50s, the signs of spring are everywhere. From the New York Botanical Garden:

[donsutherland1]

An early summer preview lies ahead.

Tomorrow will turn much warmer with temperatures surging into the middle 70s across much of the region. The warmest spots could approach 80°. 

Tuesday through Thursday will feature exceptional early season warmth. Temperatures will likely peak in the 80s on all three days in most of the region. Records could be challenged on Wednesday. Some of the guidance suggests that the hot spots could approach or reach 90° during the height of the warmth. Long Island will be cooler with highs peaking in the 70s due to onshore breezes. However, there is a chance that Islip could approach or reach 80° on Wednesday.

Following the bout of early season heat, readings will return to the 70s to end the week and start the weekend. 

Dry conditions will also persist. No rain is likely through at least next Friday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -17.67 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.016 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.0° (3.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[steve392]

Will we experience a day without winds??  Just non-stop howling winds earlier. 

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, steve392 said:

Will we experience a day without winds??  Just non-stop howling winds earlier. 

Add in the very dry conditions, I am surprised we haven't seen more fire watches, warnings go up.

 

[MJO812]

The cooldown after this warmth will feel nice.

 

Alaska will be getting more snow coming up. Still alot of cold air bottled up there and Canada.

[SACRUS]

63 today here much warmer just south of EWR


EWR: 53 / 39
NYC: 55 / 43

[steve392]

1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

Add in the very dry conditions, I am surprised we haven't seen more fire watches, warnings go up.

 

Have had several fires in south jersey already. 

 

 

Is there any rain in sight? 

[the_other_guy]

https://www.summitdaily.com/news/colorado-river-deliver-more-water-lake-powell-march-heatwave/

 

 

This is what a drought looks like boys. As we clutch our pearls at a slightly below average precip year after many years of subtropical like moisture.

 

Lets keep perspective.

[MJO812]

Thank god

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Thank god

So you want backdoor fronts that ruin things for days sometimes and funky 42 degree drizzle with 25mph E wind? How is that enjoyable in any way outside? We’re past when we’d be getting any snow. 

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Great observation. 

Long range models are moving toward more blocking during the last week of April.

This was what happened following the mid-April record warmth back in 2023 during the developing El Nino.

So it will be interesting to see if the models like the EPS continue with the blocking as we get closer in time since these week 2 forecasts aren’t always the most reliable.

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Long range models are moving toward more blocking during the last week of April.

This was what happened following the mid-April record warmth back in 2023 during the developing El Nino.

The difference is that we had record warmth in 2023 starting in January. I mean, we had to regress to the mean at some point. We had more blocking in late April, and that pattern lasted through May and June, and gave us our coldest May/June in many years. I don't expect that this year. It's likely May will be a lot closer to normal, but we aren't getting -2/-3 monthly temperature departures like May and June 2023.

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The difference is that we had record warmth in 2023 starting in January. I mean, we had to regress to the mean at some point. We had more blocking in late April, and that pattern lasted through May and June, and gave us our coldest May/June in many years. I don't expect that this year. It's likely May will be a lot closer to normal, but we aren't getting -2/-3 monthly temperature departures like May and June 2023.

The other thing to consider is that the long range models showed blocking developing in late March-early April and it never happened.  So let's see if this is real or more longer term forecasts that don't work out.

[the_other_guy]

Nino summer are not exactly known for warmth. I dont know if thats in play this summer or next, but I remember one such summer in 1995 when the AC rarely if ever went on. Granted, it was a cooler climate back then

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The difference is that we had record warmth in 2023 starting in January. I mean, we had to regress to the mean at some point. We had more blocking in late April, and that pattern lasted through May and June, and gave us our coldest May/June in many years. I don't expect that this year. It's likely May will be a lot closer to normal, but we aren't getting -2/-3 monthly temperature departures like May and June 2023.

The summer of 2023 wasn’t really that cool at all. But relative to the other recent years it seemed that way. I guess the new definition of a cool summer in the 2020s is under 30 days reaching 90° at a warm spot like Newark as was the case in 2023.

An actual cool summer like 2014 and 2009 had 15 or fewer days. A really cool summer like 1996 had under 10 days.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Days Reaching 90°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	39	0
2024	33	0
2023	29	0
2022	49	0
2021	41	0
2020	31	0

Coolest summers since 1961

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Days Reaching 90°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1967	7	0
2	1996	9	0
3	1985	11	0
4	1982	12	0
-	1975	12	0
5	2004	13	0
6	2009	14	0
-	1962	14	0
7	2014	15	0
-	1976	15	0
-	1969	15	0

The thing to watch as we head into the summer is if a much wetter pattern than we have been experiencing can develop. Since we had some record rainfall and flooding events going into the summer in 2023. Hard to tell at this early stage if this El Niño will respond with that much wetness. Long range precipitation forecasting is very low skill. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

16 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Nino summer are not exactly known for warmth. I dont know if thats in play this summer or next, but I remember one such summer in 1995 when the AC rarely if ever went on. Granted, it was a cooler climate back then

General rule is that pre-strong nino summers are colder and post-strong nino summers are warmer in the East. It wasn't 1995 (that was one of the warmest summers on record, as was 1993 and 1994). However, both 1996 and 1997 were cooler summers (1997 was a pre-nino summer). It must have been one of those years.

The only time the rule didn't hold was when the pre-nino summer of 1991 was very warm, and the post-nino summer of 1992 was cool. However, we had a major volcano in 1991 (in Pinatubo), and that screwed things up. 91-92 behaved more like the reverse of the way a strong el nino would normally. Global temperatures actually cooled, as the effects of Pinatubo canceled out a robust el nino.

Pre-strong nino/post-strong nino summer average temps (PHL) since 1970

72-73: pre-nino summer 72 (73.9); post-nino summer 73 (77.1)

82-83: pre-nino summer 82 (73.0); post-nino summer 83 (75.7)

86-88: pre-nino summer 86 (75.3); post-nino summer 88 (77.1) [summer 87 during the el nino was 76.5]

91-92: pre-nino summer 91 (77.9); post-nino summer 92 (74.0)

97-98: pre-nino summer 97 (74.2); post-nino summer 98 (75.7)

09-10: pre-nino summer 09 (75.1); post-nino summer 10 (79.6)

15-16: pre-nino summer 15 (77.7); post-nino summer 16 (78.8)

23-24: pre-nino summer 23 (75.8; although JAS was 76.1); post-nino summer 24 (78.5)

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Nino summer are not exactly known for warmth. I dont know if thats in play this summer or next, but I remember one such summer in 1995 when the AC rarely if ever went on. Granted, it was a cooler climate back then

Exactly.  Some of these analogs are not as useful given how much we have warmed since the 90's

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Exactly.  Some of these analogs are not as useful given how much we have warmed since the 90's

Add 1.5 degrees then to 1995.  Wouldn't change what he said.  We aren't talking about 1820.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Add 1.5 degrees then to 1995.  Wouldn't change what he said.  We aren't talking about 1820.

True but I've seen some longer range winter predictions using analogs from even further back (1950's and 60's)  Just not as reliable anymore but fair to say 1995 is recent enough that it's not as bad of a match.  we will see.  But always rooting against a 2009 type summer that was just awful.

[psv88]

21 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Add 1.5 degrees then to 1995.  Wouldn't change what he said.  We aren't talking about 1820.

That’s not quite how it works. Climate change reinforces these large heat bursts by well over 1.5 degrees. It’s not as if the earth uniformly just steps up 1.5 degrees. The heat burst out west last month was a feedback loop where heat was able to really build and build due to higher CO2. 
 

the same goes for actually cool summers. Those are much less likely now because of new atmosphere we have, even though global temperatures in aggregate have increase a few degrees. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The summer of 2023 wasn’t really that cool at all. But relative to the other recent years it seemed that way. I guess the new definition of a cool summer in the 2020s is under 30 days reaching 90° at a warm spot like Newark as was the case in 2023.

An actual cool summer like 2014 and 2009 had 15 or fewer days. A really cool summer like 1996 had under 10 days.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Days Reaching 90°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	39	0
2024	33	0
2023	29	0
2022	49	0
2021	41	0
2020	31	0

Coolest summers since 1961

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Days Reaching 90°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1967	7	0
2	1996	9	0
3	1985	11	0
4	1982	12	0
-	1975	12	0
5	2004	13	0
6	2009	14	0
-	1962	14	0
7	2014	15	0
-	1976	15	0
-	1969	15	0

The thing to watch as we head into the summer is if a much wetter pattern than we have been experiencing can develop. Since we had some record rainfall and flooding events going into the summer in 2023. Hard to tell at this early stage if this El Niño will respond with that much wetness. Long range precipitation forecasting is very low skill. 

Summer 2023 was a delayed summer. It was one of those rare ones where September was warmer than June. While JJA fell a tenth or two below the 1981-2010 average, the JAS temperature finished a tenth or two above the 1981-2010 JJA average. Plus, the early September heatwave helped drive up the 90-degree numbers for 2023.

Also, I'm not sure where the narrative of record rainfall and flooding events going into the summer of 2023 came from, but aside from the April 28-30 rainstorm, that spring was pretty much dry here, with May 2023 being a record dry May. It really didn't get wet until about mid-June.

[SACRUS]

61 / 54 clouds.  Warmup upon us with peak surge of warmth/heat this week Tue - Sat.  Beyond there cools down towards normal and perhaps below 4/20 - 4/27.  Overall dry otherwise and this weeks warmth will outdo any cooldown vs normals, the following week.

 

[psv88]

Currently sitting at 56. Don’t see how we hit the forecast high of 77

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Nino summer are not exactly known for warmth. I dont know if thats in play this summer or next, but I remember one such summer in 1995 when the AC rarely if ever went on. Granted, it was a cooler climate back then

95 was pretty brutal maybe you're thinking of 96?

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Currently sitting at 56. Don’t see how we hit the forecast high of 77

Clearing to our west we'll jump once that comes in