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95 west of the Garden State Parkway, 55 just east of Sandy Hook. That must be showing a ridiculous Ambrose Jet. 

Tuesday is looking to be the real Ambrose jet day. Marine forecast has the wind going from sw to south and increasing which is a tell. Wednesday has the best potential for 80 on the south shore with light winds in the morning.


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An early summer preview lies ahead.

Tomorrow will turn much warmer with temperatures surging into the middle 70s across much of the region. The warmest spots could approach 80°. 

Tuesday through Thursday will feature exceptional early season warmth. Temperatures will likely peak in the 80s on all three days in most of the region. Records could be challenged on Wednesday. Some of the guidance suggests that the hot spots could approach or reach 90° during the height of the warmth. Long Island will be cooler with highs peaking in the 70s due to onshore breezes. However, there is a chance that Islip could approach or reach 80° on Wednesday.

Following the bout of early season heat, readings will return to the 70s to end the week and start the weekend. 

Dry conditions will also persist. No rain is likely through at least next Friday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -17.67 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.016 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.0° (3.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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