Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Reports from ME/NH/VT absolutely spectacular LTG show for April this evening, and still going strong Downeast ME as I type this!  Find me an event in April w/ more CGs in several hours in New England!

I checked the mid-level lapse rates plots on the NAM, nothing special, but that is 700-500.  If you look at 750-600 on the soundings, they were as high as 7.0 C/km. so there you go. MUCAPE ahead of the SQLN were as high 1500, most of it elevated.  0-6 km shear 50-60 kt.

Even CoastalWx *has* to be impressed!  He recalls the crazy LTG shows that overnight in Feb 2016 RI/SE MA?

Basically a ring of fire in April this week.  Strong ridge SEUS and direct feed flow straight from Plains to put an EML into NEUS.  BDF?, no problem!

Sign me up for this all summer. Bring back thunderstorms! Also, bring back nocturnal light shows. We talk about this often, but nocturnal t-storms of the early 2000s definitely shaped my passion for weather. 

[Lava Rock]

0.46". Decent thunder and lightening around 11pm. 3.99" for the month

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[512high]

.42" since midnight.../ 55 F

[CoastalWx]

5 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Reports from ME/NH/VT absolutely spectacular LTG show for April this evening, and still going strong Downeast ME as I type this!  Find me an event in April w/ more CGs in several hours in New England!

I checked the mid-level lapse rates plots on the NAM, nothing special, but that is 700-500.  If you look at 750-600 on the soundings, they were as high as 7.0 C/km. so there you go. MUCAPE ahead of the SQLN were as high 1500, most of it elevated.  0-6 km shear 50-60 kt.

Even CoastalWx *has* to be impressed!  He recalls the crazy LTG shows that overnight in Feb 2016 RI/SE MA?

Basically a ring of fire in April this week.  Strong ridge SEUS and direct feed flow straight from Plains to put an EML into NEUS.  BDF?, no problem!

Meh

[CoastalWx]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

65 days until we start losing daylight. Lets go !

650 days until NYC sees greater than 1”

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Sign me up for this all summer. Bring back thunderstorms! Also, bring back nocturnal light shows. We talk about this often, but nocturnal t-storms of the early 2000s definitely shaped my passion for weather. 

We’re done for the season 

[kdxken]

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Thank you CC!

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like 60’s to near 70 middle/ end of next week 

[CoastalWx]

Rumble just now. That’s a wrap for convective season.

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like 60’s to near 70 middle/ end of next week 

IPAs?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

IPAs?

Wed- Friday look nice . NW flow days with warmish afternoons . Looks fine really after Tuesday morning 

[ineedsnow]

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Sunday Snow? As colder air rushes in on Sunday, rain may mix with or change to wet snow across the Litchfield Hills. Farther north, a steadier period of snow is expected. Even in Vermont and New Hampshire, significant accumulation is not expected.

[BrianW]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wed- Friday look nice . NW flow days with warmish afternoons . Looks fine really after Tuesday morning 

Yeah. Tomorrow looks pretty nice as well.

Even Upton says it short lived. 

"The cooler regime appears short-lived, with gradual moderation returning conditions to above normal by midweek."

 

[Brian5671]

So much for the weeks of doom and gloom we're down to 3 days lol

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Thank you CC!

The next ice age is just around the corner geologically speaking…so we enjoy the interlude.  
 

All kidding aside..what a gorgeous week. Would love to keep this going right through the spring…

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

So much for the weeks of doom and gloom we're down to 3 days lol

I’ll sell all those 60s except maybe for NJ. Wednesday could be decent though. Otherwise meh. 

[Damage In Tolland]

43 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Yeah. Tomorrow looks pretty nice as well.

Even Upton says it short lived. 

"The cooler regime appears short-lived, with gradual moderation returning conditions to above normal by midweek."

 

They need to remove those shower chances. Looks dry 

[CoastalWx]

You wonder when it will be 80 again.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like 60’s to near 70 middle/ end of next week 

I noticed this too. Especially the GFS.  I'm not completely sold on it, but it's been steadily backing off the -NAO's blocking. 00z constructed a 564+ dm warm sector ballooned to the southern Lakes, E to our doorstop next Thur/Fri. That's not really a cold anomaly - it is in fact still a very warm one relative to April.   Even if that warm air doesn't spill in here, it's not like it's aching hands on the cool side, either.  

The other models are also backing off of the -NAO's, but still are colder in complexion.  The Canadian being the most happy.  The Euro has other days that are sneaky mild. 

Overall, the influence of a -NAO circulation mode is coherent. However, the depth of the negative thickness ( the blue(cold) vs warmer(red) lines) have been easing off a little per runs

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You wonder when it will be 80 again.

I know what you're getting at but 65/44 ( say ..) is still a very significant warm anomaly. 

(as an aside, also a handsome CC piggy.  haha)

[Typhoon Tip]

58 with very little wind under August 23rd sun ( this weekend) is going be just fine for me, anyway. 

Sunday sucks tho.  Nasty cold front with a 36 hour -5 anomaly behind it...I guess we need something to keep it real tho.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like 60’s to near 70 middle/ end of next week 

I feel like we're going to be saying a lot of "GWDLs" next week. Sucks for those who live in doom and gloom zones. Monday sucks for all but the remainder of the week doesn't seem to terrible for us

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I feel like we're going to be saying a lot of "GWDLs" next week. Sucks for those who live in doom and gloom zones. Monday sucks for all but the remainder of the week doesn't seem to terrible for us

Relative to all climate zones there's a tendency in the guidance, et al, to back off the "doom" as you say. 

Certainly CT ( 00z GFS ) does the best - just by virtue of where they are.  Case in point, they flip glorious on Thur/Fri for example as a stuck warm/stationary boundary slices from Watertown-ish NY-like to Providenceness, Rhode Islage.   Just quantificaiton of that snap shot is probably 80 at HFD and 55 with a feeble Labradorian prostate drip coming into Logan.  Not the full-on cold dildo flogging of previous runs. 

Can and Euro leave something to be desired, but they are also less cold in total qualitative. 

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I noticed this too. Especially the GFS.  I'm not completely sold on it, but it's been steadily backing off the -NAO's blocking. 00z constructed a 564+ dm warm sector ballooned to the southern Lakes, E to our doorstop next Thur/Fri. That's not really a cold anomaly - it is in fact still a very warm one relative to April.   Even if that warm air doesn't spill in here, it's not like it's aching hands on the cool side, either.  

The other models are also backing off of the -NAO's, but still are colder in complexion.  The Canadian being the most happy.  The Euro has other days that are sneaky mild. 

Overall, the influence of a -NAO circulation mode is coherent. However, the depth of the negative thickness ( the blue(cold) vs warmer(red) lines) have been easing off a little per runs

models also showed a -NAO going into late March-never happened and now we are seeing it again.  Would think models trend warmer then

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I feel like we're going to be saying a lot of "GWDLs" next week. Sucks for those who live in doom and gloom zones. Monday sucks for all but the remainder of the week doesn't seem to terrible for us

As always this time of year-better to live further south and west

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I feel like we're going to be saying a lot of "GWDLs" next week. Sucks for those who live in doom and gloom zones. Monday sucks for all but the remainder of the week doesn't seem to terrible for us

Hopefully this verifies

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully this verifies

Do you have the 00z version of this at 186 ?

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

models also showed a -NAO going into late March-never happened and now we are seeing it again.  Would think models trend warmer then

heh... just a general note on the NAO.   Taken fwiw but my personal observation with -NAO(+NAO)s that are long lead signals is that they have very poor verification.  

We already know with safe assumption that in partial (at least) this has gotta be true, because the actual ridge node associated with the physical manifestation of the NAO block itself is being placed in different locations on every other run of the guidance.  So off the bat, there's poor deterministic value there.   But, even at a more orbital consideration, 'do they even happen?' ... I've come to find that a significant number of occurrences when -NAOs(+NAOs) show up in that D10 to 2-week window, they don't even exist when the whole of it is D4/5/6.   They don't survive continuity coming into mid range.

Out of all atmospheric indices, the NAO handling is just not well logistically managed by any one or any thing.

This -NAO manifested about 5 days ago... about when it was D12.  Prior to that... we were going to roll right back into a warm up.  But then Monday's sharp trough and attending cold shot showed up, and it seems the models "might" have been getting a bit overzealous in creating positive anomaly NE of it as it turned the corner and rose in latitude through the Maritime of Canada. 

But two aspects are true and they are sort of competing.  

The 2nd aspect is also a personal observation, particularly in late winter into springs:   when we have a warm anomalous pattern, the breakdown has in the past seemed to segue the -NAO response. It's like the warm anomaly rises in latitude and gets dumped up there...then takes 3-5 days to finally disperse... a time in which we tend to get cold shits down this way. 

The former aspect is more of an always consideration.  

The latter is a spring one.  

I'm trying to assess which is going to be the case.  It seems at this moment, while typing, we're getting a hybrid expression between in the guidance complexions. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Late april into the first week of May looks like the Final Boss of spring misery in new england. See 6z euro AIFS

Hosting a party on May 3rd, so we hope that doesn't pan out.