Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup,that time of year is upon us where everyone installs and gets em up .. and in.

Yeah there's no reason to wait

[Damage In Tolland]

Long period of Stein beginning 

https://x.com/jimcantore/status/2041071819201859899?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[weatherwiz]

Well spider season is here. Had one of those stupid brownish yellow ones that move really fast crawling on the coffee maker when I was making coffee and there is one of the same type on my office room wall and its a bit too high up for me to get with the device to put it outside. Must be a nest 

[mahk_webstah]

Glad we’ve been getting good rain recently.  Time to warm the soil.

[powderfreak]

It’s white again outside.  What a whiplash.

Snowing pretty hard currently.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Long period of Stein beginning 

https://x.com/jimcantore/status/2041071819201859899?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Definitely a drier look on ensembles…especially SNE. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Definitely a drier look on ensembles…especially SNE. 

It will be nice to get the ground dried out for spring yard work, hiking etc.  I think everybody in SNE is out of the drought conditions now. 

[weatherwiz]

Wind is cranking 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

It’s white again outside.  What a whiplash.

Snowing pretty hard currently.

Yeah, I guess I didn't pay attention because I was not expecting that.  Only a dusting at my place but nothing here at the office in Waterbury.

[dendrite]

A few flurries here. 36°

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A few flurries here. 36°

I keep having to remind myself it's just the first week of April...

It's just a slog, this time of year. 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

We've had decent springs once in a while over the decades but those are more the exception to the rule.  As climate and data empirically show, we more typically suffer these ~ 6-week purgatories between the end of March and early May ... give or take. 

Some are cold and "that one last chance to snow", along with a bit of questionable perspectives on reality hold outs ... heh, notwithstanding.   For those that long for warmth and covet those visions, this year seems particularly annoying so far.   What is happening(ed) is a very persistent PV, wobbling around 80..90W/60N up in Canada. So long as that is the case there is going to be an anomalous polar jet around the southern periphery.  Having jet streams fixated across S and SE Canada in the means are going to create problems for us to ever warm up prior to June 15 really ... for a much longer discussion of reasons.  

Just in the past 6 days ...we've observed like 3 different species of BD fronts.  N doors, E doors, quasi BDs whose identity lost in a normal door...    We may be carrying a positive anomaly in BD even for our spring lorn region, but it's because we have a multi-month ridiculously resonant pattern more typically observed in an average January.  If you took the typical January pattern foot, and mapped (CC+ SOLAR seasonal change)/2 over top, you get what we are getting.  

[powderfreak]

34 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Yeah, I guess I didn't pay attention because I was not expecting that.  Only a dusting at my place but nothing here at the office in Waterbury.

Yeah just a dusting here too, but back to white.

A reminder that I guess it’s not as far away as it feels.

[jbenedet]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We've had decent springs once in a while over the decades but those are more the exception to the rule.  As climate and data empirically show, we more typically suffer these ~ 6-week purgatories between the end of March and early May ... give or take. 

Some are cold and 'that one last chance to snow' and questionable perspectives on reality hold outs ... heh, notwithstanding.   For those that long for warmth and covet those visions, this year seems particularly annoying so far.   We've like 3 different species of BD fronts spanning just the last 6 days.    N door, E door, quasi lost in a normal door...    We may be carrying a positive anomaly in BD even for our spring lorn region. 

I dunno Tip. These doors happen with such regularity because without them our spring climo in the seacoast region would be like Philly otherwise….it really is just that. 

We have a three day BN interlude and then it’s back to solidly AN.

March finished +4

If April matches—which looks doable given the persistence and latest ensemble guidance—  this early spring will much better than last, or any of recent memory…

[Damage In Tolland]

These next three days are the last of the chilly. After Wednesday, it looks mild to very warm at times and above normal 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I dunno Tip. These doors happen with such regularity because without them our spring climo in the seacoast region would be like Philly otherwise….

We have a three day BN interlude and then it’s back to solidly AN.

March finished +4

If April matches—which looks doable given the persistence and latest ensemble guidance—  this early spring will much betterthan last year—or any of recent memory…

Yeah, I'm just open speculating/making conjecture on the BD frequency aspect in that morning joe

From a "personal" anecdotal perspective, I've observed more than is normal even for here?  Relative to date that is.   If we were to do the last 10 days the rest of the way, we'll have clocked 3 to 4 times the normal seasonal loading by June 1.  That's a lot  ha! 

I don't disagree about the March numbers though.  I snuck in a few edits into that post ... one of which was the jest that   (CC + the increasing solar)/2 is skewing matters.   These latter factors are creating tension in perspectives over the years, because the patterns are cold typology but we still get nuisance warm anomalies.  interesting.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I makes me wonder what the world is capable of delivering around here, if/when the pattern foot actually did flip warm.  

[Typhoon Tip]

To jbenedet's point ...  the operational runs are coherently weaving a warmer tapestry out there beyond this thing.  

Thursday through the weekend...  The cold air intrusion now thru Wednesday alleviates during Thursday.  It's not going to wildly surge the other way, but 540 to 552dm hydrostats in a return WSW continental flow and ample post equinoxian sun ... will likely present modestly above normal.

The next cold front after doesn't carry nearly the same bite/post cold weight as depicted.

 

[SJonesWX]

26 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I dunno Tip. These doors happen with such regularity because without them our spring climo in the seacoast region would be like Philly otherwise….it really is just that. 

We have a three day BN interlude and then it’s back to solidly AN.

March finished +4

If April matches—which looks doable given the persistence and latest ensemble guidance—  this early spring will much better than last, or any of recent memory…

i dunno man, this March (37.0) was much cooler than last March (38.1). will be interesting to see the temp comparison after April

[Typhoon Tip]

huh... Ironic.   The PV's showing signs of finally shifting away from 90/60 in these ensemble means toward mid month. 

 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

i dunno man, this March (37.0) was much cooler than last March (38.1). will be interesting to see the temp comparison after April

Yeah I was confused. This past March was actually colder. Not sure why he’s hell bent on making it seem like it was better, but April has a chance to be mild from what I see.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I was confused. This past March was actually colder. Not sure why he’s hell bent on making it seem like it was better, but April has a chance to be mild from what I see.

I prefer to remain non-confrontational... heh

Having said that, he did say, "March finished +4 "  

I'm not sure where he was looking -

I could see that happening though because a theme I've been playing with in my posts is that we get modestly warmer than normal monthly means out of colder looking synoptic constructs.   It's one of those obfuscating charms of CC.   

It makes sense.  If the d(T) is always positive, that means we're on a slope, so the same synoptic conditions should register at least decimals warmer than the last incarnation.  

It may be a straw man argument at this point, but I do sense that people rely a bit too much on the old adage, "CC doesn't make it warm today"   .... noooo, buuuut, it does mean one should expect it to be warmer than the last time.  It's just another subversion thing people that know better than to deny, but can't stand the truth.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'll tell ya... the GIS montly/NASA temperature anomaly product for March might be interesting.  

My hunch is, like every month since October it willl have a relative min situated over mid latitude eastern continent, while it is comparatively warmer to much warmer most everywhere else.   

I've been posting this product on or around the 10th of the months since, showing this repeating leitmotif to hide CC from Winterwolf  hahaha

[dendrite]

It was pretty much +2 to +3 up here. DCA +5, PIT +8, CVG +9, STL +8, OKC +10, DEN +10, PHX +12. 

[SJonesWX]

42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I prefer to remain non-confrontational... heh

Having said that, he did say, "March finished +4 "  

I'm not sure where he was looking -

I could see that happening though because a theme I've been playing with in my posts is that we get modestly warmer than normal monthly means out of colder looking synoptic constructs.   It's one of those obfuscating charms of CC.   

It makes sense.  If the d(T) is always positive, that means we're on a slope, so the same synoptic conditions should register at least decimals warmer than the last incarnation.  

It may be a straw man argument at this point, but I do sense that people rely a bit too much on the old adage, "CC doesn't make it warm today"   .... noooo, buuuut, it does mean one should expect it to be warmer than the last time.  It's just another subversion thing people that know better than to deny, but can't stand the truth.

no one is arguing that it wasn't warmer than normal. my post was simply to argue that this early spring so far has NOT been warmer ("better" in his words) based on the March average this year vs last.

[weatherwiz]

Could see some squalls or heavier snow showers moving through right in time for AM rush hour tomorrow

[ineedsnow]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Could see some squalls or heavier snow showers moving through right in time for AM rush hour tomorrow

Ya i think we whiten tomorrow.. HRRR is fun 

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It was pretty much +2 to +3 up here. DCA +5, PIT +8, CVG +9, STL +8, OKC +10, DEN +10, PHX +12. 

I went with +2 to +4 in my March review.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I prefer to remain non-confrontational... heh

Having said that, he did say, "March finished +4 "  

I'm not sure where he was looking -

I could see that happening though because a theme I've been playing with in my posts is that we get modestly warmer than normal monthly means out of colder looking synoptic constructs.   It's one of those obfuscating charms of CC.   

It makes sense.  If the d(T) is always positive, that means we're on a slope, so the same synoptic conditions should register at least decimals warmer than the last incarnation.  

It may be a straw man argument at this point, but I do sense that people rely a bit too much on the old adage, "CC doesn't make it warm today"   .... noooo, buuuut, it does mean one should expect it to be warmer than the last time.  It's just another subversion thing people that know better than to deny, but can't stand the truth.

It doesn't help that the increase in temps is more likely to be observed nocturnally, which doesn't help awareness/mindfullness. I'm not saying the daytime maxes aren't warming....they absolutely are, but it's just that it's realized to an even greater degree at night.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya i think we whiten tomorrow.. HRRR is fun 

certainly could see some coatings on grassy/colder surfaces