2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[yotaman]

16 hours ago, Amped said:

The GFS fantast land manages to hit almost the entire east coast from Fl to ME with Cat 1-2 gusts.  

 

The GFS has had that storm for days now hitting south Florida but after that it is all over the place.

[Windspeed]

The GFS has had that storm for days now hitting south Florida but after that it is all over the place.

It's going to be some chaotic modeling with any potential WCARIB gyre until we actually get a gyre and low genesis. Best watch with huge clumps of salt.

[Newman]

GFS has been trending towards some trailing tail-end energy of the cold front passing through the Northeast on Monday cutting off and drifting southwest under the ridge. The Euro and Canadian are both showing it and trending towards it too, albeit weaker. Certainly couldn't rule out a subtropical type system developing should this scenario play out.

[MANDA]

Looking at this satellite pic would you ever think we were at the peak of hurricane season?

Still think we need to be somewhat wary of the Gulf and southwest Atlantic before the season ends.  If anything noteworthy is going to happen it will come from the CAG with a move north into the Gulf or southwest Atlantic.  Could also have some home grown system in either of those places.  MDR is done for this year.

We'll have to see how many more days we can go without a hurricane because as of today we broke the record for latest in the season without one.  Should easily be able to tack on another 7 days I think which is pretty amazing.

[GaWx]

On 9/8/2026 at 12:48 PM, GaWx said:

Not Atlantic basin per se but this is interesting:

The UKMET has for the 2nd run in a row a TC in the Mediterranean Sea:

12Z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 35.8N 21.0E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2026 132 35.8N 21.0E 1008 31
1200UTC 14.09.2026 144 38.7N 24.0E 1007 27
0000UTC 15.09.2026 156 40.5N 24.6E 1007 27
1200UTC 15.09.2026 168 39.6N 22.6E 1008 25

 After having a Medi-TC on both Sep 8th UKMET runs (TCG late 9/13 to early 9/14), the subsequent 5 runs’ textual output showed nothing. But the newest UKMET (12Z 9/11 run) brought it back albeit slightly delayed vs the two 9/8 runs with TCG ~18 hours later. This run gets it all of the way down to 986 mb. Wouldn’t it be amazing for the Mediterranean to have a TC stronger than the strongest so far in the Atlantic?

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 34.5N 13.5E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2026 84 34.1N 14.1E 1010 30
1200UTC 15.09.2026 96 35.3N 16.5E 1003 43
0000UTC 16.09.2026 108 35.8N 16.7E 998 51
1200UTC 16.09.2026 120 35.4N 15.6E 993 46
0000UTC 17.09.2026 132 35.0N 17.3E 992 41
1200UTC 17.09.2026 144 35.1N 19.7E 989 51
0000UTC 18.09.2026 156 35.0N 22.5E 986 60
1200UTC 18.09.2026 168 35.2N 26.1E 991 48

@LongBeachSurfFreak

[WxWatcher007]

While I'm skeptical of anything off the SE coast in the near future, the GDM has a relatively strong signal for something to pop in the subtropics. It does look like parts of the basin will become slightly more conducive in the coming weeks, as more favorable rising motion moves into the basin and shear potentially falls in a narrow region between the Gulf and subtropics. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

9 hours ago, MANDA said:

Looking at this satellite pic would you ever think we were at the peak of hurricane season?

Still think we need to be somewhat wary of the Gulf and southwest Atlantic before the season ends.  If anything noteworthy is going to happen it will come from the CAG with a move north into the Gulf or southwest Atlantic.  Could also have some home grown system in either of those places.  MDR is done for this year.

We'll have to see how many more days we can go without a hurricane because as of today we broke the record for latest in the season without one.  Should easily be able to tack on another 7 days I think which is pretty amazing.

This is 3 years in a row now that we've had this in what is supposed to be the peak of the hurricane season. The last 2 years we had no storms from about mid-August to mid-September.

2023 was the last time we had activity at the peak of the season.

 

[LoboLeader1]

9 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This is 3 years in a row now that we've had this in what is supposed to be the peak of the hurricane season. The last 2 years we had no storms from about mid-August to mid-September.

2023 was the last time we had activity at the peak of the season.

 

 That's music to my ears, but anything can happen here in the northeast. Expect the unexpected.

 

[vortex95]

On 9/7/2026 at 10:02 AM, qg_omega said:

No

https://x.com/ryanweather/status/2096760579553673552?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

That quite impressive for Sep.  Major dust outbreaks are usually done by early August in more typical seasons.  Throw this in w/ wind shear? 

[vortex95]

On 9/8/2026 at 11:48 AM, Winter Wizard said:

But what's interesting about this graph is it shows closer to home, the Gulf and the Atlantic, have been less hostile with subdued wind shear. Not to mention SSTs are an inferno. I certainly don't see anything on the horizon anytime soon, but that's another piece of data that suggests if something does take off this year, it will likely be closer to home. I think Edouard was a warning shot in that regard considering how close it was to becoming a hurricane in the runup to landfall. We very well may come out unscathed, but I think it's a mistake for people to write off the season entirely at this point. 

In the large picture, it just goes to show there is a *lot* more to TC genesis than low wind shear, high TPW, and warm SSTs.  The 3 alone are not enough.

Some questions, the larger circulations that modulate things, like the MJO, Walker Circulation, subtropical high, and Hadley Cell, as some examples.  Small deviations in these can mean big for sensible wx as far as TCs go, and they are not all fully understood esp. how they interact w/ each other, and alongside the most dominate cycles/circulations El Nino/La Nina.  We know why the MDR is shutdown now, but outside of there?  I do not think there have been much study as to cycles/more or less favorable for the subtropics and mid-latitudes. 

There have been some Atlantic seasons not nearly as suppressed as this one, and atypically large amount of ACE for the season is from TCs that form outside the tropics.

[vortex95]

On 9/8/2026 at 11:53 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

If we end up with little or no major hurricane activity this season we are priming the basin for next season. Without the upwelling caused by stronger hurricanes. OHC will continue to accumulate. With a Nina likely next year 27 could be the polar opposite of this season.


.

I do not think it works that way, at least in a linear fashion.  OHC is dissipated by other means in the season transition. 

All the OHC in the world is meaningless for TCs if the atmosphere does not cooperate.  Look how how things were leading up to the 2024 season, and yes, it was active, but far from the 220+ ACE forecast (161 for the season).  The peak climo of the season was taken out big time by unusually warm mid-level temps in the MDR along w/ the lack of instability, and the ITCZ unusually far N which negated robust tropical waves off Africa.  Failure mode can come from things outside the traditional wind shear/TPW/SST when it comes to TC seasons, so using a single parameter or two will give limited forecast skill.

Also, 1982-83 was a very strong El Nino year, and 1982 was suppressed, and 1983 was even more suppressed (lowest # of NS in the satellite era w/ 4).  So would caution thinking next season is "all set."

[vortex95]

On 9/9/2026 at 12:14 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Very interesting looking at the images from the respective years. This year’s Atlantic has really warmed up compared to earlier in the season though we’re seeing most of the warmth in the subtropics.

What part of an ocean basin is warmer or cooler than avg is a factor for TC b/c it impacts the general atmospheric circulation, and I bet for each tropical basin, it is a different configuration that aids or knocks down TC development/maintenance!

Yes, the El Nino is very impressive, but I would be a bit reserved as to "El Nino is the strong on record, that means everything associated w/ it as to regional sensible wx is made more intense or worse."  The atmosphere does not work on a linear curve, and unexpected deviations in parts of the globe occur more often that it is thought, but many focus on the more "classic" impacts historical and run w/ that.  Given we are in uncharted territory, that may mean atypical results in certain cases.

[vortex95]

18 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This is 3 years in a row now that we've had this in what is supposed to be the peak of the hurricane season. The last 2 years we had no storms from about mid-August to mid-September.

2023 was the last time we had activity at the peak of the season.

 

Excellent point and observation.  It shows 2024, for instance, when it was so suppressed during the peak, wasn't just fluke.  It now has happened 2 more times, all in a row?  That is non-trivial, and definitely warrants a lot of study.  And all 3 seasons w/ the peak squashed, it all has been for different reasons.  Are the more reasons why this could happen?  Not necessarily happens again next year, but what is the true range of possibilities here?  I would argue there are more.

This all goes into understanding TCs and environments more, and eventually leads to better forecasts!