2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[codfishsnowman]

On 9/4/2026 at 3:31 PM, Amped said:

This season might be a total loss. No canes yet and I don't see any potential in the foreseeable future.

There were a couple Mets and enthusiasts in the New England forum that strongly hinted at this possibility months ago. Hats off to those gentlemen so far.

[vortex95]

23 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

There were a couple Mets and enthusiasts in the New England forum that strongly hinted at this possibility months ago. Hats off to those gentlemen so far.

Not to have a NS form Sep 1-10 is rather rather (peak climo time for the Atlantic).  Yes, technically on Z time Edouard formed in Sep  (01/00z), but that doesn't say much as to how atypically quiet it is.  Not to even have an invest or something outlooked in 7 days in the Atlantic speaks volumes right now!

There is value in such a quiet season scientifically.  We are in uncharted waters, at least in the data rich/satellite era, for El Nino, so what are we seeing that we have not seen before?  Record high MDR wind shear for one, but what else will come out of this season?  For instance, was the AEJ impacted?  Walker Circulation?  Hadley Cell?  All these impact TC formation and maintenance.  It seem like Saharan dust outbreaks are not a huge factor this year, unlike last.  Why?  Is it b/c of the strong westerly wind shear in the MDR?  Can you have a season when both are strong and work in tandem to make conditions even more hostile and get something like 1914 (only one TS the entire season?) or 1907 (5 storms but no hurricanes)?  Yes, limited data from these  time periods make comparisons to the modern age tough, but to know the absolute limits/extremes (at both ends) is a high value.  2005 and 2020 showed one end of the spectrum.  Also, 1933 b/c it still has the most ACE for a season on record.

[WxWatcher007]

I still think there will be life in the Atlantic eventually. But it’s going to be a while and the windows will be narrow—geographically and time wise. 

[GaWx]

 As a near coastal resident who was directly affected heavily by FIVE H/TS 2016-24, I’m very much enjoying the break from the stress of threats!

 However, looking back at the 6 other El Niño seasons with <4.4 ACE through Sep 6th tells me to still be cautious for the rest of the season, especially late Sept through mid-Oct:

1) 1941: -TS TX/LA border mid Sep
-H TX late Sep
-TS Windwards/MH Honduras/Nicaragua/H Belize late Sep
-H NW Bahamas/MH S FL/H FL Pan early Oct
-TS SE Bahamas/FL Big Bend mid Oct

2) 1929:
-MH NW Bahamas and S FL tip/H FL Pan late Sep

3) 1914: 
-TS FL/GA border mid Sep

4) 1905:
-TS Belize/LA late Sep
-TS W Haiti early Oct
-TS LA early Oct

5) 1904: 
-H upper SC mid Sep
-TS Belize early Oct
-H C Cuba/S FL mid Oct
-TS FL Pan early Nov

6) 1876:
-H/Leewards/MH VI and PR/H Hisp/E Cuba/NC mid Sep
-TS Windwards late Sep/H Nicaragua early Oct
-H Caymans/MH W Cuba/H Keys and SW FL/TS Bermuda mid Oct

 These six very quiet first half of season El Niño analogs are suggesting an avg of 3 TCs (range 1-5), including 1.5 H (range 0-3) and 0.8 MH (range 0-2) yet to come that would have significant to major land impacts. Hopefully though it will be most like 1914 or otherwise 1905 at the worst!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

[vortex95]

Another "dud season" record.  4.4 ACE units through 9/6 for the Atlantic is the lowest season-to-date ACE in the satellite era, and prior, going back to 1941.

Given TC records are more incomplete as you go further back, this record today is even more outstanding, as historical seasonal ACE, prior to the satellite era especially, is mostly too low.
 

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 As a near coastal resident who was directly affected heavily by FIVE H/TS 2016-24, I’m very much enjoying the break from the stress of threats!

 However, looking back at the 6 other El Niño seasons with <4.4 ACE through Sep 6th tells me to still be cautious for the rest of the season, especially late Sept through mid-Oct:

1) 1941: -TS TX/LA border mid Sep
-H TX late Sep
-TS Windwards/MH Honduras/Nicaragua/H Belize late Sep
-H NW Bahamas/MH S FL/H FL Pan early Oct
-TS SE Bahamas/FL Big Bend mid Oct

2) 1929:
-MH NW Bahamas and S FL tip/H FL Pan late Sep

3) 1914: 
-TS FL/GA border mid Sep

4) 1905:
-TS Belize/LA late Sep
-TS W Haiti early Oct
-TS LA early Oct

5) 1904: 
-H upper SC mid Sep
-TS Belize early Oct
-H C Cuba/S FL mid Oct
-TS FL Pan early Nov

6) 1876:
-H/Leewards/MH VI and PR/H Hisp/E Cuba/NC mid Sep
-TS Windwards late Sep/H Nicaragua early Oct
-H Caymans/MH W Cuba/H Keys and SW FL/TS Bermuda mid Oct

 These six very quiet first half of season El Niño analogs are suggesting an avg of 3 TCs (range 1-5), including 1.5 H (range 0-3) and 0.8 MH (range 0-2) yet to come that would have significant to major land impacts. Hopefully though it will be most like 1914 or otherwise 1905 at the worst!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

That's good historical info.  The only item I would as in, is "how strong was El Nino in those years?" Strength of El Nino can be a big factor.  And the presence of El Nino is not always a "slam dunk."  The type of El Nino is important.  Modoki El Nino, which has the highest SST anomalies in cntrl tropical Pacific rather than the ern, that can lead to an epic season, like 2004!

Want to see an unexpected large-scale difference from other years going into a very strong El Nino.  The area above 80N barely got above freezing this summer.

See here:
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

No other summer since records began in 1958 has been this cold, and I look at other very strong El Ninos, and all got to a mean of 1 C at least for the summer.  Since this is an avg over large area, 1 C is a significant in this case.

So this begs the question, how could this impact things as to what we typically expect in a very strong El Nino?  It might make no difference overall, but what about on more regional levels?  And I am not just talking about Atlantic TCs later season, but other things like the upcoming winter for the CONUS?  Is the AO, and by extension, the NAO, impacted?  How that sets up or its phase in a given winter has big implications for NAMR!