On the Rocks? March 5-6 mess

[Pennfisherman]

33 and rain here

[HoarfrostHubb]

Regardless, this will cause issues for a decent number of people wrt the commute etc.    Could very well be a lot of rain for many, but good luck determining who gets the ice, sleet, snow and how much

[dendrite]

Doing my best to add some diabatic heating to F up everyone’s northerly drain.

[CoastalWx]

Just more curious to see how it pans out. Just too bad temps from 925-850 weren’t 1C colder.

[CoastalWx]

Will is right, HRRR ripping a hole in the atmosphere later tonight. 

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, Pennfisherman said:

33 and rain here

35 rain 2nd in a week joy should I rant?

[Kitz Craver]

29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Best part of this entire thread is Dendrites love of skunk smell. Thought I saw him hanging out at the dispensary just sniffing away

Grew skunk #1 in the 90’s. Still could be my all time favorite strain 

[Great Snow 1717]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, not at all....6" of paste, vs 10" of powder that blows off of the driveway while the rest of SNE gets 1978?

Like....hey, you can either bang this plain looking check with a bit of a FUPA, or watch your best friend pile-drive your smoke-show wife for 24 hours unabated. Hmmm....tough choice, said no one from Methuen, ever.

I'll take the 10.5 - 11.5 that fell over  6 inches of slush...that wasnt exactly pure powder.

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Will is right, HRRR ripping a hole in the atmosphere later tonight. 

But that model isn’t so hot lately…can’t trust it. Maybe it gets this one right, but all The best trusting it. 

[weatherwiz]

That is getting very close to WSW stuff for BOS should the degree of lift verify. You couldn't paint a thermal profile that is any more on the line than what's being forecast but wow. I guess its great this is happening dead overnight because rates could be 1-2" per hour for a good 3-4 hours. 

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

35 rain 2nd in a week joy should I rant?

No ice there tonight?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

That is getting very close to WSW stuff for BOS should the degree of lift verify. You couldn't paint a thermal profile that is any more on the line than what's being forecast but wow. I guess its great this is happening dead overnight because rates could be 1-2" per hour for a good 3-4 hours. 

Or it could be just a cold rain….gotta see what mesos show later on. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

GFS is the coldest.  Everything else looks meh here.  

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Or it could be just a cold rain….gotta see what mesos show later on. 

Going to come down to lift I think. If the lift is there...BOS will be ripping a heavy, wet snow.  But I think the trend has been to favor a good 3-4 hour period of heavy snow around Boston with potential for 5-7" of snow

[HoarfrostHubb]

I assume ORH will cancel school in 3...2...1...

[Kitz Craver]

7 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

GFS is the coldest.  Everything else looks meh here.  

Pretty much. However local mets still going hard on air with ice concerns even south of Hartford now

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I assume ORH will cancel school in 3...2...1...

I’d love another delay tomorrow…can we pull a lil ice to help with that lol.  

[codfishsnowman]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is getting very close to WSW stuff for BOS should the degree of lift verify. You couldn't paint a thermal profile that is any more on the line than what's being forecast but wow. I guess its great this is happening dead overnight because rates could be 1-2" per hour for a good 3-4 hours. 

Is it possible for us to get an inch of sleet and snow tonight or are we just too far south?

[CT Valley Snowman]

Fake cold looks to be slowly eroding back home up to 33.  ORH is 44, lol.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Is it possible for us to get an inch of sleet and snow tonight or are we just too far south?

I think an inch is doable but we may be just a bit too far south. I don't see tonight really being anything like the other night in terms of sleet/icing across a widespread area...probably more so for the hills. 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Pretty much. However local mets still going hard on air with ice concerns even south of Hartford now

There will be icing down to Naugatuck . Hopefully all the cold models win 

[weatherwiz]

Forecast soundings for BOS are pretty crazy though...about as textbook as isothermal snow bomb you could ask for. The type of stuff where after the event happened people go, "woahhh where did this come from, nothing showed this" and do a little case study and realize...oh crap isothermal profile with strong lift...yup that will do it 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Doing my best to add some diabatic heating to F up everyone’s northerly drain.

Yes, Sending gifts south from Maine as well, PC skies, 35.6°F

[CT Valley Snowman]

Yeah its not exactly a real impressive airmass advecting SW.  

[CoastalWx]

GFS close to 6Z, maybe a tad snowier here. Man that is so freaking close.

[Chrisrotary12]

Man what a tough forecast…. Computer guidance is basically 1-10” here.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Setting the stage ..

    ... according to WPC ( and as expected - ) the front demarcating the big +PP air mass arrival has slipped thru unnoticed...

 

  Looking around at the DPs, there's a lag there, with colder DPS held up across NE NY/VT/NH/N ME.   They're in the neighborhood of 30 F locally, which isn't likely low enough for ZR. Need to see the activation of some sort of ageo drainage jet.  Also, if the sounding were to verify more isothermal+ it won't be enough for snow either; a solution like the UKMET or ICON would be on the table and most froze/freezing is N of the VT/NH border.   One aspect the front demarcation signals though is that the correction vector points cooler, ... particularly knowing that high is building ESE and will get deeper, not warmer in the lowest levels however. 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Besides, it's always a small area that approaches 40", anyway....point was I got totally shafted due to a late slide southward.

You ain't the only one B**** Never saw so much sand

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

You ain't the only one B**** Never saw so much sand

Yea, "I" not meant to indicate any isolated, mesoscale injustice of sort....just saying the slide southward was the nail-in-coffin.

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS is warning snow for many in Mass/S NH

Wheee