March Banter 2026

[Lowershoresadness]

F for Salisbury this winter. we only had one blizzard warning

[aldie 22]

Pretty healthy snow shaping up for Minnesota and Wisconsin this weekend 

[MillvilleWx]

31 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Pretty healthy snow shaping up for Minnesota and Wisconsin this weekend 

Historic actually. They will eclipse or come very close to some 24hr monthly records, as well as breaking some multi-day snowfall accumulations across portions of WI.

[LordBaltimore]

To all the boxelder beetles that decided to come out and play when it hit 80 - RIP BOZOS GUESS YOU DIDNT PLAN ON THIRD WINTER

[pazzo83]

lol Duke won their game against FSU 80-79, while UNC lost their game to Clemson 80-79 (after a ferocious near-comeback by Carolina).  College basketball.

[snowfan]

@CAPE

@stormtrackerDFH 120 is being shipped out and hitting local shelves soon. 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, snowfan said:

@CAPE

@stormtrackerDFH 120 is being shipped out and hitting local shelves soon. 

Is this the newest release? 2026? The latest one is the 'Limited Release' from 2025, which is damn good- might be my favorite.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Is this the newest release? 2026? The latest one is the 'Limited Release' from 2025, which is damn good- might be my favorite.

Yeah just looked at the schedule- April 2026. I will be down there in early April- hopefully I can get it on tap.

[CAPE]

Gunnar not in the lineup tonight for USA vs Canada. WTF?

Why is a TV personality even a manager? He has no experience and didn't even know the rules and rested players against Italy. Lucky they made it to the quarterfinals.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Gunnar not in the lineup tonight for USA vs Canada. WTF?

Why is a TV personality even a manager? He has no experience and didn't even know the rules and rested players against Italy. Lucky they made it to the quarterfinals.

Yeah that's dumbdy-dumb. I mean didn't they have Bobby Witt at short and Gunnar at 3rd on Tuesday? I mean dang Gunnar got them on the board with a homer that day! Boo...

[nw baltimore wx]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yeah just looked at the schedule- April 2026. I will be down there in early April- hopefully I can get it on tap.

I’ll be there 4/11

[Jebman]

On 3/12/2026 at 9:17 PM, MillvilleWx said:

Historic actually. They will eclipse or come very close to some 24hr monthly records, as well as breaking some multi-day snowfall accumulations across portions of WI.

I tried. I REALLY tried not to post this, but this storm is SO intriguing.

 

029
FXUS63 KMPX 141100
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
600 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- POWERFUL WINTER STORM ARRIVES TODAY with the first radar
  echoes entering southwestern MN this morning. Peak intensity
  expected later this evening through Sunday with travel
  conditions becoming dangerous to impossible. Winter Storm
  Warning upgrades to Blizzard Warning for southwest to southern
  MN at 9am Sunday.

- FORECAST UPDATES: A slight bump northward in area, but no
  other significant changes. High confidence in widespread
  8``+ with most ending up somewhere within 10-16`` and the
  highest amounts of 20``+. Highest likelihood of highest
  amounts from SE MN to western WI.

- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS expected to begin Sunday morning across
  southwestern MN as winds increase, with peak gusts of 40-50mph
  in addition to falling snow resulting in whiteout conditions
  for several hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Keeping the theme of the prior discussion and due to the nature of
the forecast, the discussion will be split up into a few sections.

OVERVIEW...

Our previously advertised winter storm will arrive today and there
has been relatively little change to the ongoing forecast with the
main differences being a slight bump northward in the highest band
of snowfall and an upgrade to a Blizzard Warning for Sunday across
southwestern Minnesota. The highest amount are generally expected
within the eastern half of the area stretching from the Twin Cities
through western WI and towards the UP. QPF within the heaviest hit
area could approach 2 inches and based on forecast snow ratios of
around 10:1, this is expected to result in snow amounts approaching
20+ inches in western Wisconsin. The `lower` QPF of 0.75-1 inch in
central Minnesota will likewise result in lower accumulations but
still easily Winter Storm Warning 6+ inch level, with far southern
Minnesota possibly seeing a bit of freezing precipitation mixing in
initially primarily in the form of sleet. The slight northward bump
in guidance would place the heavy footprint through the heart of the
Twin Cities metro, although further wobbles are possible until the
system is fully underway based on how various sets of guidance have
performed this winter. Travel conditions will rapidly deteriorate,
becoming dangerous later this evening as snow rates intensify and
next to impossible on Sunday as winds increase alongside continued
snowfall. The storm looks to exit Sunday night with travel
conditions remaining hazardous into Monday as winds continue to gust
and produce blowing snow. If it all possible, we highly recommend
avoiding all travel on Sunday during the worst of the storm and
doing what you can to stay safe.

NOW THROUGH WHEN SNOW ARRIVES...

The previously mentioned `ribbon` of moisture riding the strong
upper level jet is evident on GOES water vapor imagery this morning
spamming from Oregon/Washington state through the northern US and
riding the ridge southeast towards the area. This upper level jet
will slide eastwards towards the area with a relatively broad right
entrance/upper level divergence region reinforcing ongoing light
precipitation by the afternoon. Radar echoes are already spanning
from central South Dakota through central Iowa along the lower level
baroclinic zone ahead of the developing surface low which is
situated underneath the synoptic forcing of the upper level jet over
the northern Rockies as of now. As we move forward in time towards
this evening, the baroclinic zone will slowly progress northwards as
the surface low becomes evident over northeastern Colorado and the
upper level jet places a broad right entrance region over Minnesota
and Wisconsin by around 6-7pm. Snow is expected to begin during the
afternoon as these two features meet, starting out relatively light
but rapidly intensifying as the surface low continues to strengthen
and the upper level trough begins to dig as they depart the eastern
Rockies. Snow will become heavy during the evening and continue to
remain heavy overnight into Sunday as the trough continues to dig
taking on a negative tilt with further intensification of the
surface low which looks to track across Iowa towards the southern
tip of Lake Michigan. Guidance isn`t completely set on the exact
track of the surface low, which is why there are still some wobbles
north/south expected until it arrives, however our area looks to
firmly plant itself within the north/northwest quadrant of the
system in prime position to see heavy snowfall.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

Heavy snow will be ongoing as we approach midnight across most of
the area, with a bit of sleet possibly mixing in across far southern
Minnesota where the 850mb baroclinic zone could edge just far enough
northwards to introduce a warm nose, evident within model forecast
soundings across the I-90 corridor by around 5-6am. The DGZ is
shallower farther to the south/closer to the center of the low,
which should allow for at least a few hours of sleet or a wintry mix
of snow/sleet until enough precipitation falls to cool the warm nose
back down below freezing and transitioning the column back to snow.
The northward extent of the warm nose is one of the key points of
uncertainty yet remaining within the system as in general the
GFS/GEFS model suite pushes the warm nose as far north as Mankato
while the steady ECMWF/EPS/AIFS bring it only to the MN/IA border,
which would keep the p-type as primarily snow throughout. Regardless
of how much ice falls, we still anticipate warning level snowfall
even across this region despite lower snowfall rates and missing the
heaviest band of snowfall, which should set up farther north.

Speaking of the heaviest band of snowfall, the slight northward bump
would place it squarely across the Twin Cities Metro and into
western Wisconsin by sunrise on Sunday with the highest QPF 6 hour
window from roughly 1am to 7am. Snowfall rates could exceed 2 or
even 3 inches/hr at times during this window as the upper level
trough continues to dig and begins to negatively tilt and surface
low tracks closer to the area. Forecast soundings show the thermal
profile just a tad warmer than your typical DGZ which resides from
roughly -10 to -20C, which makes sense given that higher QPF winter
storms often struggle to produce snow ratios above 12 or 15 to 1, as
internal studies at MPX has shown in the past. Snow ratios are
expected to hover from 8/10 to 1 during this window, which looks to
produce 6-8 inches of snowfall within the heaviest band during these
6 hours alone. As time progresses past sunrise and the trough
continues to dig/surface low continues to strengthen, continuous
heavy snowfall is expected to continue through the rest of the
morning until the surface low moves far enough east to bring the
heaviest rates towards northern WI around midday. By the afternoon,
snow should begin to taper off from west to east as the surface low
and upper level trough both slide to the east, with light snow
lingering into the late evening across eastern Minnesota and into
early Monday morning in western WI.

As the surface low is displaced a bit farther away from the
immediate area during the afternoon and into the evening, winds are
expected to increase due to a strengthening surface pressure
gradient resulting from further intensification of the system as it
moves eastwards, with wind gusts ranging from as high as 45-55mph in
southern Minnesota tapering towards 30-40mph in the Twin Cities and
25-35mph in central Minnesota. This will result in further dangerous
travel even as snow begins to weaken due to blowing, coupled with
snow ratios generally increasing as the snow weakens as the entire
atmospheric column cools northwest of the surface low. The gusty
winds and blowing snow look to continue into Monday, making cleanup
all the more difficult on top of the sheer amount of snowfall
expected. The upgrade to a BLIZZARD WARNING for portions of
southwestern and southern Minnesota is due to the increasingly gusty
winds on top of falling snow, with the warning beginning in the late
morning Sunday and lingering into Monday. We would not be surprised
to see a Monday morning commute that is incredibly slow due to
ongoing snow removal efforts being hindered by the blowing snow and
gusty winds, which will gradually weaken throughout the day Monday.

Snow will end early Monday morning as the upper level trough axis
progresses through the area with subsidence rapidly filling in
behind the departing surface low with a 1030mb high forming by
Monday evening. Winds will also be weakening significantly by this
point, with quiet conditions once again returning as the system
continues to move eastwards towards the Atlantic Coast.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM...

We will not see a prolonged period of quiet weather behind the
system as another albeit much weaker hit of snow is expected late
Tuesday into Wednesday as another upper level jet slides into the
region dragging a low level baroclinic zone through. The setup is
obviously much weaker than the previous system and also much more
transient with a 12 hour window of light snow resulting in another
potential inch or two spanning Tuesday night through late morning
Wednesday. This event wraps up quickly replaced by somewhat stagnant
weather with no strong systems through the remainder of the week.
NBM tries to rebound temperatures back into the mid to upper 40s by
Friday, however this may be optimistic given the expected new/deep
snowpack and as such we may end up in the low 40s instead. The key
factor in snowmelt will not only be hours of sun during the day but
also if we stay above freezing at night, thus cloud cover will be
the thing to watch towards the later half of the week to see just
how warm we end up.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Starting the TAF VFR at all locations but we are not going to
stay that way as eventual -SN becomes SN with IFR across all
sites as a powerful winter storm enters the region today. A
prolonged period of SN to +SN is expected which will rapidly
lower CIGS to IFR within the first 3-4 hours of snow falling,
remaining IFR with periods of LIFR likely as visibility drops
below 1/4sm with snow rates exceeding 1 in/hr. There is also the
possibility of SNPL or even sleet in southern Minnesota, which
is included in the MKT TAF but how far north the mix goes
remains to be seen. Right now the highest confidence is that
snowfall rates will be intense enough for all sites north of MKT
that we will remain only snow throughout the event. Winds
increase from 080-110 throughout, eventually becoming sustained
at 15-20kts gusting to 30-35kts with further increases to wind
speeds beyond the end of the period.

KMSP...Elected to not include a mention of SNPL or sleet this
morning although it is possible this far north. Guidance
yesterday evening and overnight is slightly farther north
compared to previous runs, however we have seen this trend
before this winter only for them to return to a more consensus
southerly track as the system arrives. For now, the chance for a
wintry mix as opposed to pure snow is around 10-15%, with a
period limited to around 3 to 4 hours from roughly 06 to 12z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...Chance AM IFR BLSN. Wind NW 10-15G30kts.
TUE...VFR, -SN/MVFR late. Wind NW to S 5kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SW 5kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

To provide some historical context to the snowfall forecast for this
weekend, here are the 10 largest observed single storm snowfalls in
the Twin Cities recorded history (1884-present) as collected by the
MN State Climatology office.

1.  28.4 inches: 1991 October 31 - November 3 (Halloween Blizzard)
2.  21.1 inches: 1985 November 29 - December 1 (Thanksgiving Weekend)
3.  20.0 inches: 1982 January 22 - 23
4.  17.4 inches: 1982 January 20 - 21
5.  17.1 inches: 2010 December 10 - 11 (Domebuster)
6.  16.8 inches: 1940 November 11 - 13 (Armistice Day)
7.  16.7 inches: 1985 March 3 - 4 (Largest March snowstorm)
7.  16.7 inches: 1940 March 10 - 14
9.  16.5 inches: 1982 December 27 - 28
10. 16.0 inches: 1917 January 20 - 21
10. 16.0 inches: 1999 March 8 - 9

&&

[Jebman]

The upper Midwest storm will have a cold front that will smash hard into south Texas Sunday night with 63 mph gusts. Sunday we will hit the low 90s.

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, Jebman said:

I tried. I REALLY tried not to post this, but this storm is SO intriguing.

 

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

To provide some historical context to the snowfall forecast for this
weekend, here are the 10 largest observed single storm snowfalls in
the Twin Cities recorded history (1884-present) as collected by the
MN State Climatology office.

1.  28.4 inches: 1991 October 31 - November 3 (Halloween Blizzard)
2.  21.1 inches: 1985 November 29 - December 1 (Thanksgiving Weekend)
3.  20.0 inches: 1982 January 22 - 23
4.  17.4 inches: 1982 January 20 - 21
5.  17.1 inches: 2010 December 10 - 11 (Domebuster)
6.  16.8 inches: 1940 November 11 - 13 (Armistice Day)
7.  16.7 inches: 1985 March 3 - 4 (Largest March snowstorm)
7.  16.7 inches: 1940 March 10 - 14
9.  16.5 inches: 1982 December 27 - 28
10. 16.0 inches: 1917 January 20 - 21
10. 16.0 inches: 1999 March 8 - 9

&&

The '91 Halloween Blizzard is my favorite storm of all-time.  It is legendary in Minnesota and there is no debate about its ranking.  Also of note on that list, the 1982 storms (#3 and #4) are back-to-back just like our 2010, and 5 of the top 9 storms were in the 1982-1985 period.

For this upcoming storm, I'd love to be just north of Green Bay.  Looks like they'll get hit with both components of the storm.

[MillvilleWx]

5 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The '91 Halloween Blizzard is my favorite storm of all-time.  It is legendary in Minnesota and there is no debate about its ranking.  Also of note on that list, the 1982 storms (#3 and #4) are back-to-back just like our 2010, and 5 of the top 9 storms were in the 1982-1985 period.

For this upcoming storm, I'd love to be just north of Green Bay.  Looks like they'll get hit with both components of the storm.

Was mentioning that last night to my colleague on the winter desk. Basically anything north of GB up into the U.P is going get clocked. I’d love to post up in Iron Mountain, MI right on the WI/MI border. Should see 2-3’ there. Marquette area and the Huron Mtns will probably see 3-5’ with the storm and additional LES. Insane storm for up there 

[RickinBaltimore]

Just got back a bit ago from UMBC. Somewhere in Virginia, a cold chill just ran through.

 

[CAPE]

A couple webcams to monitor the MN-WI-MI blizzard-

https://it.nmu.edu/webcam