2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[yoda]

Watch up until 10pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 632
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   315 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Central Maryland
     Central Pennsylvania
     Northern Virginia
     Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
   increase across the region this afternoon as a shortwave trough and
   attendant cold front approach from the west. Warm and moist
   conditions have fostered strong buoyancy across the region while
   increasing mid-level flow contributes to strengthening deep-layer
   vertical shear. These environmental conditions support the potential
   for strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts and
   isolated large hail as the primary risks. A low-probability risk for
   a brief tornado or two exists as well.

[yoda]

50/20 wind probs, 40/20 hail probs, 20/<2 tor probs

[yoda]

 

[yoda]

There's a lot of reports down near Harrisonburg

[Kmlwx]

Watching that Frederick/Montgomery cell for me (in Colesville tonight). Might miss me to the north but it does seem to be having a tendency to come south. 

[Nomz]

Really strong storm just sprung up NW of Manassas

[Kmlwx]

Taking forever to come south and east

[AmericanWxFreak]

Incredible repetitive full sky lightning ahead of the hoco moco cell - beautiful.


.

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Incredible repetitive full sky lightning ahead of the hoco moco cell - beautiful.


.

Oh yeah it’s bright and loud 

[Kmlwx]

Maybe trying to cycle back up a bit - doubt it will get back to as intense as it was - but more lightning near Gaithersburg on the last update. 

[alexj7]

Best show of the year in Gaithersburg. We had 4 hits that were on top of us and it is still going. Two may have hit my property it was so bright and close.

Also saw green lightning. My 4yo even asked why it was so green.

[Kmlwx]

Maybe a downburst signature right around North Potomac or a hair NE of there? Probably sub-severe at least at this second but seems to be intensifying 

[Kmlwx]

[Kmlwx]

Plenty of lightning right on top of that signature as well. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Whoever that was hoping for good lightning. By golly.

[Nomz]

DC weather dome strikes again

[WxUSAF]

28 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Whoever that was hoping for good lightning. By golly.

This cell has been inching along, but this has been the most thunder and lightning of any storm this year I think 

eta…damn thing fell apart in the last 3 miles before reaching me 

[vortex95]

Some "backup" storms W to E Reston area and actually lifting ENE a bit. DOX radar shows hail cores aloft. CGs increasing last 20 min.

[dailylurker]

10 hours ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Whoever that was hoping for good lightning. By golly.

That was me. I missed everything and saw nothing lol. My area won't do thunderstorms this season. But congrats to the places that have had storms. Back to drought imby. This has been the season of watch boxes that produce nothing. 

[Kmlwx]

Tuesday through Thursday next week has at least some potential showing on the AI guidance. 

[yoda]

8 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Tuesday through Thursday next week has at least some potential showing on the AI guidance. 

Afternoon AFD from LWX mentioned it

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions next week with increasing
thunderstorm chances by midweek.

Models are generally in good agreement that a strong mid-level ridge
builds across the southern U.S. and into the Mid-Atlantic during the
early to middle part of next week. Well above normal temperatures
for late August can be expected as highs reach the lower to mid 90s.
Hot and humid conditions are likely as heat indices reach the upper
90s and possibly the lower 100s.

A more notable mid-level disturbance will progress from the northern
High Plains to the Northeast toward the middle of next week. The
ridge will be suppressed as a result, but it remains uncertain how
much and how quickly this happens. The latest trend in the ensemble
guidance is for the upper ridge over the Mid-South to be a bit
further west. If this pans out, our area in the Mid-Atlantic will be
in a more favorable location along the periphery of the ridge to be
impacted by passing MCSs. Eventually, by mid week it looks like the
upper ridge retreats enough to allow the shortwave troughs to move
over our area. Several of the AI models indicate increasing severe
potential at some point Tuesday through Friday, which is certainly
possible given the high instability that will be in place, along
with substantial upper-level support from any strong disturbance.
It`s also possible a back door cold front tries to drop into the
area by Wednesday or Thursday, leading to greater uncertainty in
temperatures.

[frd]