2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[MillvilleWx]

This thread should hopefully spur to life a bit with the overall longwave pattern shifting. Our good friend the WAR will be making a comeback which should open the door with better theta_E advection into the Mid Atlantic. We've been void of persistent southerly flow for a while with the NW flow regime basically a deterrent to any type of warm advection regime in this area of the country. 

[yoda]

Looks like Wednesday, maybe Thursday for a chance of some severe?  Nothing huge of course... just the risk for it

[yoda]

MRGL up out to the NW of the i95 corridor 

[yoda]

Wednesday afternoon up in the air per morning AFD from LWX 

 

A strong area of low pressure moves through the Northeast on
Wednesday, with a cold front extending down the East Coast that will
bring widespread rain and thunderstorm chances to the Mid-Atlantic
in the afternoon/evening. While the center low will be well north of
us, the timing of the front aligning with the diurnal cycle and the
high temperatures seen at the start of the week could still
contribute towards some thunderstorm development in the region.
Potential severity at this time still ranges widely--NCAR`s AI NWP
Convective Hazards Forecast currently has our region outlined in its
45%-60% probability for severe weather to occur, while CSU`s medium-
range probabilities ranks the severe threat much lower. Regardless,
this front will likely result in widespread showers at a minimum as
well as a sharp drop in temperatures seen later in the week. Highs
on Thursday will range in the upper 60s and low 70s, a marked shift
from the mid-90s expected earlier in the week. Lingering rain
showers may still be moving out of the area by Thursday morning,
while a meandering front to the south could bring a few additional
rain showers on Friday.

[Kmlwx]

Even the lower CSU is still in the 15% range for wind. Given how boring things have been - I'll take it for some thunderstorm activity! 

[WxUSAF]

Hhheeelllloooooo 6z RGEM 

[Kmlwx]

45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hhheeelllloooooo 6z RGEM 

Central MD special  

Now if only I trusted the RGEM at this range more. 

[high risk]

I'm on board for thunderstorms later Wednesday, but the upper level flow looks *really* weak which should reduce the severe potential.  There may still be enough shear lower in the profile to get some wind threat, but the ceiling for this event looks to be low.

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, high risk said:

I'm on board for thunderstorms later Wednesday, but the upper level flow looks *really* weak which should reduce the severe potential.  There may still be enough shear lower in the profile to get some wind threat, but the ceiling for this event looks to be low.

Thoughts on today? I listed out some of my thoughts in the Discobs thread but do we have any hope of a boundary causing forcing? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Thoughts on today? I listed out some of my thoughts in the Discobs thread but do we have any hope of a boundary causing forcing? 

I just saw my first cloud! 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Thoughts on today? I listed out some of my thoughts in the Discobs thread but do we have any hope of a boundary causing forcing? 

     I haven't seen any guidance bring storms today much further east than the I-81 corridor.   Storm motion won't pull anything towards the Metro area.

[Ellinwood]

I'm losing count of the amount of times SPC has put upper MoCo in the Marginal only for 0 storms to appear this year (granted, I haven't expected anything from these setups yet except the one March system). That said, I do think we get a Slight with Wednesday's setup along/northwest of I-95... low-to-mid level shear is subpar but there's good CAPE and DCAPE for some gusty winds along the cold front.

[yoda]

18 hours ago, Ellinwood said:

I'm losing count of the amount of times SPC has put upper MoCo in the Marginal only for 0 storms to appear this year (granted, I haven't expected anything from these setups yet except the one March system). That said, I do think we get a Slight with Wednesday's setup along/northwest of I-95... low-to-mid level shear is subpar but there's good CAPE and DCAPE for some gusty winds along the cold front.

Add today to the list?

[Ellinwood]

16 hours ago, yoda said:

Add today to the list?

Haha yep. I still think we get Slight-level severe coverage along/NW of I-95 today (even if the SPC keeps it Marginal)... we've been baking since Monday with little to no turnover in the atmosphere and storm coverage looks pretty good today.

[yoda]

1 hour ago, Ellinwood said:

Haha yep. I still think we get Slight-level severe coverage along/NW of I-95 today (even if the SPC keeps it Marginal)... we've been baking since Monday with little to no turnover in the atmosphere and storm coverage looks pretty good today.

LWX seems to think we get a STWatch today.  They mentioned it in their AFD... haven't seen them do that much before