March 2026

[coastalplainsnowman]

18 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Let’s hope!

 

although I fear Long Island will be stuck in the 50’s and spring will feature a ton of bdcf’s

 

'bdcf' looks like a swear word, which is fitting.

Also, I'd argue that on a lot of those bdcf days, the spine of LI - 495 if you will -  is often more similar to unaffected central NJ than it is to the south shore of LI.  I remember many times stepping out of work in Mineola/Garden City, to blue skies and 70s, only to head south on the Meadowbrook or Wantagh and see odd darkness/haziness on the horizon. By the time I got to Sunrise Hwy I'd be in misty and damp low 50s.  

[psv88]

45 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Huge differences in the shaded vs sun zones here. Shaded spots still have several inches while sun spots it's mostly grass. 

No grass here at all. Definitely a lot more snow than there was in syosset area today. The only grass here is right along the edges of the driveways. Otherwise it’s a solid 4-6” in sunny areas, 7-8” in shaded areas. 

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

... I fear Long Island will be stuck in the 50’s and spring will feature a ton of bdcf’s

Son of a bdcf!

[snowman19]

Add BAMWX to the growing chorus of people skeptical of some big return to winter come mid-month. DT (Wxrisk), Contentweatherguy and Larry Cosgrove in his new blog yesterday morning are also doubting it
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Larry Cosgrove: https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/rkjQBLeS9xo

 

 

[ForestHillWx]

15 right now; I didn’t think we’d drop this low. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Add BAMWX to the growing chorus of people skeptical of some big return to winter come mid-month. DT (Wxrisk), Contentweatherguy and Larry Cosgrove in his new blog yesterday morning are also doubting it
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Larry Cosgrove: https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/rkjQBLeS9xo

 

 

With an AO+ likely to prevail through at least mid-March, there seems to be no mechanism that could drive the cold from Canada into the New York City area. Some fleeting cool shots are possible, but a sustained very cold regime appears unlikely. 

That means prospects for a 50.0" or above snow season at Central Park will decrease markedly. The percentage of cases with sufficient snowfall (6.6") to raise the seasonal total to 50.0" or above are below:

On or after 3/15: 10.8%
On or after 3/20: 6.3%
On or after 3/25: 2.5%

No meaningful snowfall is likely through at least March 15th.

[bluewave]

Interesting to see that March is still reverting to the 2020s milder and less snowy mean even following our coldest and snowiest winter of the 2020s so far. 
 

March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	46.5	46.4
2025	46.9	46.9
2024	48.1	48.1
2023	44.6	44.6
2022	45.3	45.3
2021	45.8	45.8
2020	48.0	48.0

 

March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.1
2025	0.0	0.0
2024	T	T
2023	0.1	0.1
2022	0.4	0.4
2021	T	T
2020	T	T

[jm1220]

The back for this winter had to break at some point. Hopefully it doesn’t come with backdoor fronts every week. 

[EastonSN+]

31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With an AO+ likely to prevail through at least mid-March, there seems to be no mechanism that could drive the cold from Canada into the New York City area. Some fleeting cool shots are possible, but a sustained very cold regime appears unlikely. 

That means prospects for a 50.0" or above snow season at Central Park will decrease markedly. The percentage of cases with sufficient snowfall (6.6") to raise the seasonal total to 50.0" or above are below:

On or after 3/15: 10.8%
On or after 3/20: 6.3%
On or after 3/25: 2.5%

No meaningful snowfall is likely through at least March 15th.

Thanks Don.

This morning we are finally seeing a movement to phase 8 where previously it was stuck in 6. Also the wind reversal is imminent.

Of course, all this may effect us too late where we would need everything line up perfectly (night, high rates, arctic air, track...).

[EastonSN+]

Also working against March and April snow is the fact that it seems decadal.

90s snowed often in March and April.

00s hardly snowed

10s snowed often

20s barely snows

Of course all this is timing. If we were hitting phase 8 now and the current reversal happened 2 weeks ago we may be looking at heavy snow in March.

Looking at the CPK snowfall chart, oddly it seems that when we have an above average snowfall December March is not snowy and vice versa (for example this year, 18/19, 13/14, 14/15 etc...). Only in rare winters like 95/96 and 02/03 do we have "wall to wall" snowfall. 13/14 came close but DC "stole the snow" that year.

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don.
This morning we are finally seeing a movement to phase 8 where previously it was stuck in 6. Also the wind reversal is imminent.
Of course, all this may effect us too late where we would need everything line up perfectly (night, high rates, arctic air, track...).

It’s starting to look likely that this SSW/split doesn’t downwell and couple with the troposphere later this month. This is following the theme we’ve seen recently where there is a disconnect between the stratosphere and troposphere and they don’t end up coupling @donsutherland1 @bluewave

 

 

 

 

[JustinRP37]

It is kind of funny that while we had a cold winter, the vast majority of the country saw one of the warmest winters on record. Florida, even with the cold spell, saw their 2nd warmest winter, DJF period. Looking at the developing pattern, I do think spring will come in very quickly. I do think ski season will end up ending earlier than normal throughout the region. I also think this will be one of the warmer summers. Enjoy the snow cover while you can because it will be brown and muddy after it melts.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, snowman19 said:

It’s starting to look likely that this SSW doesn’t downwell and couple with the troposphere later this month. This is following the theme we’ve seen recently where there is a disconnect between the stratosphere and troposphere and they don’t end up coupling

 

 

 

 

It could be the case - out of curiosity what drove the persistent-ao this year?

Looks like we do hit 8 once again but will see if its early enough.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

It is kind of funny that while we had a cold winter, the vast majority of the country saw one of the warmest winters on record. Florida, even with the cold spell, saw their 2nd warmest winter, DJF period. Looking at the developing pattern, I do think spring will come in very quickly. I do think ski season will end up ending earlier than normal throughout the region. I also think this will be one of the warmer summers. Enjoy the snow cover while you can because it will be brown and muddy after it melts.

The trough set up too far east for east St. Louis this year. If the trough was a little further west our snowfall COULD have been MUCH higher.

[snowman19]

It could be the case - out of curiosity what drove the persistent-ao this year?
Looks like we do hit 8 once again but will see if its early enough.

Per DT:

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Per DT:

 

 

 

 

Yup timing is my concern with the MJO. Hitting 8 on the 20th is a bit late and everything would have to line up for snowfall. 

That being said it has to be monitored. If the forecast is off by a few days and its earlier we can increase snowfall chances.

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

It is kind of funny that while we had a cold winter, the vast majority of the country saw one of the warmest winters on record. Florida, even with the cold spell, saw their 2nd warmest winter, DJF period. Looking at the developing pattern, I do think spring will come in very quickly. I do think ski season will end up ending earlier than normal throughout the region. I also think this will be one of the warmer summers. Enjoy the snow cover while you can because it will be brown and muddy after it melts.

The Northern Hemisphere winter cold pool has really shrunk following the dramatic warming which occurred in 2015-2016 across the globe and North America. So while this was a great winter for us, it was the 2nd warmest across the CONUS. Past winters this cold and snowy in the East also had extensive cold further to our West with much colder CONUS rankings. Several years had coast to coast cold which was missing this winter.

So in this much warmer world it was a challenge for places to have an all-time winter for both snow and cold. There was definitely a colder global temperature sweet spot from 1993-1994 to 2014-2015. This allowed for the all-time snowiest winter in PA during 1993-1994, our area in 1995-1996, DC to Philly in 2009-2010, Detroit and the Great Lakes in 2013-2014, and Boston in 2014-2015. None of these benchmarks were able to be approached this winter with the smaller footprint of the cold.

The big question going forward is how long will it be before we see another locally cold and snowy winter near this magnitude since the last ones were over 11 years ago? 
 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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December 2025 through February 2026 was the 2nd warmest winter on record for the Contiguous U.S. according to Prism climate data. The widespread record to near record warmth in the west easily outweighed the cool temps in the east.

 

11:39 AM · Mar 1, 2026

 

 

[EastonSN+]

21 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hey everyone, i am putting out a call for season-to-date snowfall totals for anyone who has them, including anything that fell today, March 1st.

You can DM me or tag me.

I'll have that seasonal snowfall map out this week, thanks.

52.7 so far.

[Brian5671]

I think 90% of the people here would be happy with a March torch.   I for one am done.  Time to get outside and start living again.