March Madness

[UnitedWx]

11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lot of dripping in the sun today but kind of shocked at how pathetic it was in the shade (as evidenced by the ice not melting on my walkway in my picture)…I assumed at least my walkway would get cleared regardless of sun exposure. 

Is that your North side? We've been in our house for 10 years now and never come close to an ice dam... until now.I have some repairs to do i  the spring.  Maybe i can blame it on Mr. Shitfaced who rolled his truck into our house last month 

[amarshall]

Most solid march pack in my lifetime . Still 24”




.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, amarshall said:

Most solid march pack in my lifetime . Still 24”




.

Epic Andrew 

[ineedsnow]

6z GFS will piss off some of the warmsters 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z GFS will piss off some of the warmsters 

Warm stretch is pretty set in stone for SNE .. 50-60 Sunday / 55-65 Monday / 60-70 Tuesday / Wednesday 65-75+ / Back to winter Thursday PM .. Shore will be colder than those numbers 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, amarshall said:

Most solid march pack in my lifetime . Still 24”




.

Yea, you have more than I do...you must radiate decently because Providence is already down near a foot.

[dendrite]

34 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z GFS will piss off some of the warmsters 

How so? A few warm days and then it gets back close to climo.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, amarshall said:

Most solid march pack in my lifetime . Still 24”




.

Nice! I believe my largest March pack was 1996... or maybe 1978. I do NOT have Will's memory, so... about 8 to 10 inches left in Westfield as of yesterday evening

[tamarack]

Yesterday's low-RH 46° settled/melted 2/3 of the overnight 2.8", leaving a solid 20" pack.  We've twice had 48" depth in March, on 3/1/08 from the last siggy snowfall of that snowy winter, and 3/31/01 - had 19" dump on 30-31.  In Fort Kent we reached 65" on 3/14/84 as 26.5" fell atop a 42" pack. 

[Lava Rock]

40F. Busting high.

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[Lava Rock]

Yesterday's low-RH 46° settled/melted 2/3 of the overnight 2.8", leaving a solid 20" pack.  We've twice had 48" depth in March, on 3/1/08 from the last siggy snowfall of that snowy winter, and 3/31/01 - had 19" dump on 30-31.  In Fort Kent we reached 65" on 3/14/84 as 26.5" fell atop a 42" pack. 

Impressive depths, especially ft kent. Seems those days are long gone.

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[SouthCoastMA]

Day 39 in-a-row of solid pack on Cape Cod. I'm happy we'll at least get to 40, which doesn't happen very often. Looks like we can get to 43-44 before melt armageddon. 

[CoastalWx]

Long range is meh. Looks like we might be done.

[mahk_webstah]

Disturbing from GYX.  I’m ready to be done.

As has been observed with Todays`s forecast, and now Saturday`s forecast, the cold has a way of winning out in these borderline spring warm up events. The ridge next week is still showing up as being highly amplified, but a notable change since last night`s runs has been toward a less amplified ridge. Temperatures still look warm in New England, but there`s been a notable trend southward with the colder air across Quebec. Should this trend continue, it will once again bring the cooler air into New England and risk thwarting the warm up in both amplitude and duration. Again, this still has not shown up on the models, but it`s a potential outcome to continue to monitor for over the next few days given the pattern and recent experience.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Long range is meh. Looks like we might be done.

There it is…we knew it was coming yesterday.  
 

Now let the change begin…all season when you’ve said this, it goes the opposite way. Let’s see if we can do that one more time.  

[SouthCoastMA]

AIGFS not backing down on warmth early next week. Even tempered to match other models, still a torch

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

There it is…we knew it was coming yesterday.  
 

Now let the change begin…all season when you’ve said this, it goes the opposite way. Let’s see if we can do that one more time.  

Trough moves overhead on EPS. You want it more west.  Nothing worse than cold and dry come March. Look for yourself. 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, amarshall said:

Most solid march pack in my lifetime . Still 24”




.

South shore holds pack 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Trough moves overhead on EPS. You want it more west.  Nothing worse than cold and dry come March. Look for yourself. 

I didn’t say what you said was wrong…my point is that will change with time…just like everything did this winter. So I’m questioning the “Done” statement..not your verbatim call. 
 

IOW…very premature call imo. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I didn’t say what you said was wrong…my point is that will change with time…just like everything did this winter. So I’m questioning the “Done” statement..not your verbatim call. 

Eh. We’ll see. Ridge out west is good so there is that. But we torch through the 15th and it just takes a bunch of things to go right to get something good after. Maybe trough overhead in the mean is a  better chance of decent cold. 

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Eh. We’ll see. Ridge out west is good so there is that. But we torch through the 15th and it just takes a bunch of things to go right to get something good after. Maybe trough overhead in the mean is a  better chance of decent cold. 

Eps is bullish for you those are very high numbers for a mèan.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Eh. We’ll see. Ridge out west is good so there is that. But we torch through the 15th and it just takes a bunch of things to go right to get something good after. Maybe trough overhead in the mean is a  better chance of decent cold. 

I thought the cold was back end of next week 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Eh. We’ll see. Ridge out west is good so there is that. But we torch through the 15th and it just takes a bunch of things to go right to get something good after. Maybe trough overhead in the mean is a  better chance of decent cold. 

I guess that was my point….that trough position won’t be exactly where it is showing it right now(highly unlikely)…so this is still very much up in the air at this juncture.  

I definitely agree that a lot of things need to go right…but we are no closure to knowing what may, or may not  happen than we were yesterday.  These feature will fluctuate over the next 10 days for sure…you know this as well as anybody.  
 

So the “we might be done statement” was more hyperbole than anything when were sitting here on the morning of 3/5.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I thought the cold was back end of next week 

Maybe a fropa but warms up again as low moves west/overhead. I’m talking about true pattern change stuff not fleeting cold.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I guess that was my point….that trough position won’t be exactly where it is showing it right now(highly unlikely)…so this is still very much up in the air at this juncture.  

I definitely agree that a lot of things need to go right…but we are no closure to knowing what may, or may not  happen than we were yesterday.  These feature will fluctuate over the next 10 days for sure…you know this as well as anybody.  
 

So the “we might be done statement” was more hyperbole than anything on 3/5.  

You definitely hang onto every word.  

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I thought the cold was back end of next week 

Well the back end of next week is 3/14 ..so ya it’s close. 

[CoastalWx]

Maybe that isn’t the worst thing looking at it more now. But holy crap why couldn’t that have occurred in the beginning of the month. I think that is frustrating me.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You definitely hang onto every word.  

Well…that’s good reading comprehension .    And you are one of our resident meteorologists.   But All joking aside…those features are going to move around on guidance over the next 10 plus days…so that was my issue.  This looks very interesting still…we watch and monitor. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe that isn’t the worst thing looking at it more now. But holy crap why couldn’t that have occurred in the beginning of the month. I think that is frustrating me.

Ya, I hear that. But mid month is still snow time for SNE…especially with a good set up. Sure it gets more difficult, but no where near impossible.  March ‘84, ‘93, ‘97 ‘17 and ‘18, and many more have delivered nicely in the mid, and even late month timeframe.  Not saying this does…but way to early to say it doesn’t. 

[tamarack]

53 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Impressive depths, especially ft kent. Seems those days are long gone.

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Had to fasten a stick to the top part of the stake that winter, as it's "only" 61 inches above ground.  Last time we reached 40" was March 2019.  Got to 36" in March 2023 but tallest since then was the very brief 28" during the January fluff bomb - was obvious that the 25:1 snow was going to settle big time.

March average snowfall here is 17.1" but it's often feast or famine.  Five times it brought 30"+, including 55.5" in 2001, but 9 times it ranged from 10.0" down to 0.1".  
15 of our 48 storms of 10"+ came in March, and also 6 of the 19 events 15"+.  Next highest is February (no surprise) with 11 and 5.