March Madness

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Um yeah. 40 dews and low 50s temps. 

Talking right now. When the dogs start falling thru rather than walking on then we melt. Half my driveway is still ice over snow. Still have some of that inch that fell the other day on paths.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Of course we are…it’s still 12 plus days away. When are we ever sure on a 12-14 day prog?  But the signs are good…that’s all we need to see at this stage. Actually that depiction that Ginxy posted shows a decent ridge position on the 500mb look EPS…maybe we can get it to spike a bit more over the next 12 plus days…

Yeah some mixed signals for me though. Anyways whatever, not worrying at this point. It is what it is.

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Solid melt day today for many , highs 48-52 dews 35-40 bright March sun, can hear the gutters already pouring water at 10am 

Yes any absorptive surface is really going to melt with the sun. Going to take a while for the pure white areas to ripen with this ice layer 

[ORH_wxman]

The real test is how long does the sun today take to melt off the 1.7" of snow from yesterday evening on top of existing snow. 

[Torch Tiger]

wow heck of a melt going on today for everyone. Was this forecasted?

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The real test is how long does the sun today take to melt off the 1.7" of snow from yesterday evening on top of existing snow. 

With ice on top. Just took my depth its at 15 average with 13 to 17. Woods are 21 to 25 in full shade.

[Damage In Tolland]

There is a half inch of solid ice on top of this. Can’t even break thru it 

[Ginx snewx]

Serious water in Mass in the snow. If that ripens too fast add another inch of w/e Friday then 60s for 4 days oh my

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah some mixed signals for me though. Anyways whatever, not worrying at this point. It is what it is.

Yesterday you were saying how very interesting it looked…damage you said…so now what changed for you? 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still unsure what mid month brings. 

I kinda feel like features are over amplifying in the daily guidance' for that range.   But like you...unsure.

I have objective reasons for thinking that though.

1     the models tend to be over amplification, always, in the D7 to ... Nth range.   It's matter of how much, be it 44 or 4% but there seems to always be a time-dependent tax paid by the time whatever is being monitored is D5 <--

2    can you think of a better month to f* up amplitude prospects in guidance (anyway), than a month where guidance' handling of ginormous +d(solar), and it's modulation impact, is suspect in perpetuity?  Typically forced neutering of the patterns is more of an April phenomenon.. but there's likely to be some of that in March, particularly nearing and beyond the equinox.  

  seems adding up those two inference techniques should constrain one's ideas - unless your IneedOlanzapine, who sees a blue contour over Baffin Island and throws a emoji at us like we're supposed arrest all actions and tune right in..

3    is more of a super synoptic observation.  It seems this trough and move toward +PNAP mid month is setting up a dreaded compression type.  Normally I'd say that's an H.A. look there around the 15-17th ... in fact I think I mentioned that a couple days ago if mem serves.  Any, I just see that trough in the ens means as setting a elephant's ass down on a trampoline, where the heights are bursting out both ends...  That's means there huge velocity, which as we know...is really a destructive interference in principle.   But here's the thing ... if 1 and 2 are right above, that means the trough might actually correct back into a lower velocity, whereby S/W's can be conserved.  So then we go the other way ...

All and all?  "unsure what mid month brings"

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Serious water in Mass in the snow. If that ripens too fast add another inch of w/e Friday then 60s for 4 days oh my

Sell 4 days of 60’s

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sell 4 days of 60’s

Days and days 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sell 4 days of 60’s

Supported 

[CT Valley Snowman]

I'm not home but sattelite is comical with the clouds trapped in the valley while everyone else is starting to tan the nape.  

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sell 4 days of 60’s

Maybe over a week above freezing there?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

24 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

wow heck of a melt going on today for everyone. Was this forecasted?

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Maybe over a week above freezing there?

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

I'm not home but sattelite is comical with the clouds trapped in the valley while everyone else is starting to tan the nape.  

37° here with snow still clinging to the trees.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

He won’t radiate like BDL

[Typhoon Tip]

Temp at FIT hasn't budged in an hour.   40 F

sniffin a bust ?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

What a day 

[512high]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Temp at FIT hasn't budged in an hour.   40 F

sniffin a bust ?

Ha! My weather station at the shop just jumped to 45F/light breeze.

[Typhoon Tip]

I suspect the GFS has the right idea here, amts of QPF notwithstanding.   

But the synopsis of having that newly arriving polar high through QUE, dammed in, having also arrived over this impressive cryosphere.. the low levels should at least "look" colder.  It's interesting that the NAM is as warm as it is; you'd think it's resolution in the lower 300 mb would be colder.  I wonder if the NAM being a weaker QPF is limiting systemic cooling or something. 

[Layman]

6 minutes ago, 512high said:

Ha! My weather station at the shop just jumped to 45F/light breeze.

Warming up nicely here as well!

[Torch Tiger]

21 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

already way above freezing even there. Wow

[Damage In Tolland]

31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Supported 

Brasierre?

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

He won’t radiate like BDL

Saturday below 32 and then next Friday . Couid see 4-5 days . Your area too 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Temp at FIT hasn't budged in an hour.   40 F

sniffin a fanny 

Whose ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

With ice on top. Just took my depth its at 15 average with 13 to 17. Woods are 21 to 25 in full shade.

How in the hell am I deeper than you? This blizzard pack vaporized....