March Madness

[CoastalWx]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Honest-to-god-truth....I didn't get much more snow in the blizzard than I got yesterday...difference? The world paused for the former because some crack-whore on crystal meth caught a 40" bonannza in Fall River. I'll be perfectly honest...yesterday, in a vacuum, was more disruptive than the blizzard because it was a blend of just about every abomination that can descend from the sky at the most inopportune time possible-which is categorically worse than 10" of sand during a full-shut-down that blows off the road before the plow is inconvenienced by it. 

Angry Ray is the best Ray. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doggie looks poised to lock in the next round of lips n hips

Your pack will be epic 

[WinterWolf]

Might be just a tad too far south for tomorrow night…how did the mid month look?  
 

Got a day off yesterday and a nice delay today due to the ice. Didn’t think that at all on Monday…this little system juiced up and stayed colder than forecast here..the tenor Carries on. Now let’s do 85 a week from now…that would be fun. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Not quite a redux coming up next but some similarities.  That looks like like a narrower snow production, possibly from Rt 2 N.   Those areas in N CT up through the SW 'burbs of Boston probably don't fare so snow well.   But they'll be cool and cooling off, so IP fest?  

Not a ton of either tho.  The whole thing is moving really fast.  There does appear to be a tiny 2 hour period of tuck potential.. It's interesting because as that shallow near surface slosh back is happening the total troposphere thicknesses are rising.   Our regional topography can sometimes force the atmosphere to decouple, where the lower 150 mb may as well be a different planet

 

[met_fan]

8 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

except for maybe ACK. No reports from there but im estimating 24-36" there

I never realized how bad of an area the  91 CTRV in central Hampden and Hampshire counties were until i started putting together these maps and seasonal snowfall stuff. They are just in the worst possible spot, shadowed by the ORH and Berkshire hills, too far north and miss a lot of coastals and E MA specials, too low elevation to do well in those type of events. It's almost better to be in central CT and around Windsor Locks area than up there. 

Great area, just not for snow

[Typhoon Tip]

You can almost see that decoupling on the cinema ... there's a sw moving subtle kink in the geometry of the isobars sliding down the coast behind that weak wave's exodus, like moving a dowel under a rug.  That's a BD for the MA. 

[jbenedet]

Ole’ man winter letting us out with the seasonal change. A steady and subtle progression. 
 

Just keep ticking lines of latitude north on that northern jet with the ISR increasing and we’re good to welcome real spring earlier than in recent years.
 

 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Ole’ man winter letting us out with the seasonal change. A steady subtle progression. 
 

Just keep ticking lines of latitude north on that northern jet with the ISR progression and we’re good to welcome spring earlier than recent years.
 

 

We repent and pray for salvation 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Honest-to-god-truth....I didn't get much more snow in the blizzard than I got yesterday...difference? The world paused for the former because some crack-whore on crystal meth caught a 40" bonannza in Fall River. I'll be perfectly honest...yesterday, in a vacuum, was more disruptive than the blizzard because it was a blend of just about every abomination that can descend from the sky at the most inopportune time possible-which is categorically worse than 10" of sand during a full-shut-down that blows off the road before the plow is inconvenienced by it. 

That crack whore may know my ex wife who is from Fall River. 

[metagraphica]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Honest-to-god-truth....I didn't get much more snow in the blizzard than I got yesterday...difference? The world paused for the former because some crack-whore on crystal meth caught a 40" bonannza in Fall River. I'll be perfectly honest...yesterday, in a vacuum, was more disruptive than the blizzard because it was a blend of just about every abomination that can descend from the sky at the most inopportune time possible-which is categorically worse than 10" of sand during a full-shut-down that blows off the road before the plow is inconvenienced by it. 

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Angry Ray is the best Ray. 

I was thinking Tip had taken over Ray's account and wrote this for him.  Reads like one of Tip's diatribes against the annual springtime backdoor fronts.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Man I am gonna miss this 1' plus since January 

For sure. Now we have snow eating fog in the valley this A.M. Pack will dissipate very quickly today between the fog and 50s

[Ginx snewx]

55 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Ole’ man winter letting us out with the seasonal change. A steady and subtle progression. 
 

Just keep ticking lines of latitude north on that northern jet with the ISR increasing and we’re good to welcome real spring earlier than in recent years.
 

 

Then there is this

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

For sure. Now we have snow eating fog in the valley this A.M. Pack will dissipate very quickly today between the fog and 50s

Fog gone some melting but with ice cover and only a few hours of AF dews won't be a melting Bonanza 

[dendrite]

40s dews will do some damage. Especially with sun.

I will say that mesos were hitting that foggy/cloudy spot in the CRV in MA/CT for days indicated by a cool spot in the afternoon on the 2m temp progs. I was curious to see what that was going to look like if it was real….well voila.

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh... I haven't railed on about BDs since 2010.  I know that.

I was late getting my Met head wrapped around the total mechanics of what BD synopsis is/why ... but once that light turned on -

Understanding goes a long way to ameliorating once vexations.  Those are 25 dollar words to say that if you get why, it's not as frustrating nor annoying.   LOL    

BDs are a decoupling of the synoptics in the vertical.   Basically, around 250 mb above the surface ( expressing altitude in pressure) ...so ~4,000 feet(1300 m) give or take, the bulk troposphere no longer cares what's happening below that level.  Down here in the basement, the air is moving NE --> SW, and above that level the pattern may only look vaguely like that could even be taking place below.  These become disparate circulation modes.   This is caused to happen because of topographic layout over the eastern continent.  

Everywhere E of the eastern cordillera, particularly E of the Berks to White Mountain axis... there is a drop off in elevation down to sea level.  Given the normal trajectory of the westerlies ( flowing WSW or W or NW over those elevations, causes a "curl" vector which points back SW underneath as the elevation descends.  That vector is overcome much of the time... such that we dont' have a BD flow always.  But, at other times, such as when there is +PP ( pressure pattern) over Maine/GOM/Maritime, that imbalance will take advantage of the vector immediately.   Rollin' on back SW the air comes, because air always moves from +PP to -PP.   That action of doing so, is the uncoupled state. 

There are reasons by the +PPs set up.  They range from S/Ws moving SE out of Quebec toward the lower Maritime, where backside NVA/downward motion piles the air.  There's a cold front up there that passes by and piles air precariously close to the vector ... so that can get the air rolling.  The other way is just aggregate cold Labradorian current modulated air density, which is intrinsically +PP in a narrow lowest level.  If that sniffs the vector, it'll start rolling back SW.   Kind of a fuzzy different between that kind and seabreezing. 

In March through early June really ... both these kinds of BD means are aplenty.  So anyway ... in understanding all this, heh.  It's built in.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Fog gone some melting but with ice cover and only a few hours of AF dews won't be a melting Bonanza 

Bonanza already beginning.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Bonanza already beginning.

On the pack? Yeah no

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

That crack whore may know my ex wife who is from Fall River. 

Well, PS:

I'm jelly over her band

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Solid melt day today for many , highs 48-52 dews 35-40 bright March sun, can hear the gutters already pouring water at 10am 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm wondering a couple of things. 

one, will all this snow really be down to just piles in time.  That's only 6 days away and the specifics of the CMC/GFS/Euro ops offer enough clouds and mean frontal position headaches to perhaps level the melt potential some.  I mean, I've seen it approach 70 over a snow pack, sure. But that's with howling S gales and tons of steam rollin off the fields in firehose melt off that will be bare ground in a coffee break.  I'm not sure it is environmentally possible to put 80 F over a geographic pan dimensional cryosphere and keep it sunny, when heights are really only marginal for mid 80s.   There's kind of a 'absurdity limit'  lol.  

two, if so ... does this approach on te 10th/11th period possibly expose a flaw in these AI versions? ie., not defining or integrating that aspect of the environmental precondition.  For that matter, are we abundantly confidence the standard versions are doing that proficiently enough.  I suspect the answer's no on the AI's, anyway. They still illustrate like 1993 MRF runs with that larger fuzzy granularity.    That doesn't look like discrete systemic awareness really. 

Thing is... even the operational runs are bursting warm sector surge through all across those two days. The CMC with it's own 570+ dm plume now.   Probably just go with whatever model's most conservative with temperatures until the ground snow is much much less. 

I feel like the AIs are hitting some theoretical ceiling if the surface was bare and dry. That would make sense given the sun angle equivalent in fall for Oct 5-10 where records are in the mid/upper 80s in the warm spots.

But I think it’s safe to toss those readings. Slash 10°F off of those and you start getting closer to the op runs and highs from that 2/21/2018 record heat day. 

[Brewbeer]

hoping the sun pops through here soon and clears the ice off the driveway

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I feel like the AIs are hitting some theoretical ceiling if the surface was bare and dry.  That would make sense given the sun angle equivalent in fall for Oct 5-10 where records are in the mid/upper 80s in the warm spots.

But I think it’s safe to toss those readings. Slash 10°F off of those and you start getting closer to the op runs and highs from that 2/21/2018 record heat day. 

Yeah, perfectly stated..   I like the reasoning with the Oct sol comparison, too.   I do that every day in my head in spring... 'today is Oct 8 sun'  

as an aside, part of me grins like ...why do that.  I should just know at the scalar point what Mar 4 solar is, but for some reason, the autumn comparison helps.  weird. 

Anyway, no problem slashin' T's there.  I think the best part of that 10th and 11th will be watching perhaps the fastest land-snow retreat in history.  heh

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

On the pack? Yeah no

Um yeah. 40 dews and low 50s temps. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, perfectly stated..   I like the reasoning with the Oct sol comparison, too.   I do that every day in my head in spring... 'today is Oct 8 sun'  

as an aside, part of me grins like ...why do that.  I should just know at the scalar point what Mar 4 solar is, but for some reason, the autumn comparison helps.  weird. 

Anyway, no problem slashin' T's there.  I think the best part of that 10th and 11th will be watching perhaps the fastest land-snow retreat in history.  heh

I do that all year round

Will be tough to top January 1996 for land-snow retreat rate.

[Typhoon Tip]

Clearly we are struggling with this inversion.  Probably won't last the whole daylight.  At some point, we see the temp surge 5-7 but everyone's at 10 am was struggling to touch 40 on a day that I feel pretty confident, if there were no snow pack, we'd already be in the mid or upper 40s heading for +3 to even 5 F MOS bust.  

This is sorta related to what Brian and I were just discussing.  Unless you have a lot of mixing/turning over of the atmosphere, still boundary layers aren't really how to warm the air over a snow pack.

That said, the DPs are rising with the temp.  It's just 40/34 at FIT.   This is the warmest DP ( I have seen ...) combined with above freezing air in months really.   It may have happened ... but not with a post solar min intense Equinoxian sun.  If we do burst into the upper 40s with DP say 38... water will be flowing from the fields.

[CoastalWx]

Still unsure what mid month brings. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do that all year round

Will be tough to top January 1996 for land-snow retreat rate.

Oh, right... LOL

That also reminds me, that December 2020 massacre..   I think some places lost 18" of pack in a single night. 

I guess maybe we can draw a distinction in "melt reasons" - if nerdy enough.  heh.   Like, if it's raining with 50 mph gusts at 55 F... you could decap Greenland with that.  Kind of a different sport.   This coming up will zephyr winds under sun with temps (maybe approaching 70) and DPs probably nearing 50 - who wins and how much

[dendrite]

39.1° and deep blues. 

Drip baby drip. 

 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still unsure what mid month brings. 

Of course we are…it’s still 12 plus days away. When are we ever sure on a 12-14 day prog?  But the signs are good…that’s all we need to see at this stage. Actually that depiction that Ginxy posted shows a decent ridge position on the 500mb look EPS…maybe we can get it to spike a bit more over the next 12 plus days…

[jbenedet]

33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Fog gone some melting but with ice cover and only a few hours of AF dews won't be a melting Bonanza 

If sunshine is maximized with no clouds —as it is today—it does a lot of damage to the pack.