March Madness

[Kitz Craver]

Anyone have any ENS data for next week to share?

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI south next week.

not for tuesday wednesday?  that nails all of of new england though I don't know temps

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

At this point I think it’d be funny to finish BN while they crush it down there.

I haven't been keeping track very well.  What are you at?  I'm probaly 5" behind you.

[Kitz Craver]

Back to dejected Scooter, a broad brush of meh. Bummer…

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I haven't been keeping track very well.  What are you at?  I'm probaly 5" behind you.

I think the accurate cocorahs guys are around 60”

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

not for tuesday wednesday?  that nails all of of new england though I don't know temps

The SWFE that everybody wants...the one that the GFS and Canadian have looks south, but then high slips offshore and we get a rain or mix here, snow for you on north. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Back to dejected Scooter, a broad brush of meh. Bummer…

I'm just stating what it shows. Wish Canadian has a clue, but probably doesn't.

[ORH_wxman]

Lol that OP GFS shows like 3 straight days of 70s to start the second week of March.  Unlikely that verifies but the longwave pattern is definitely getting a warmer look at that point. 

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The SWFE that everybody wants...the one that the GFS and Canadian have looks south, but then high slips offshore and we get a rain or mix here, snow for you on north. 

I think euro AI has that swfe more north for all no?

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

I think euro AI has that swfe more north for all no?

The AI has suddenly gotten a bit shaky the last few weeks.  I'm to the point I am blending the GFS with the CMC/Op Euro because its been wildly flopping around with systems since about the start of the month.  

[mahk_webstah]

12 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Back to dejected Scooter, a broad brush of meh. Bummer…

2 2-footers in less than a month can really bum a guy out.  Think of all those missed opportunities, everything left on the table!  Oh my...

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The AI has suddenly gotten a bit shaky the last few weeks.  I'm to the point I am blending the GFS with the CMC/Op Euro because its been wildly flopping around with systems since about the start of the month.  

ensembles for now yes?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Euro OP is way south    She gone?

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully we can grab that next week because it's Napes afterwards for a bit.

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol that OP GFS shows like 3 straight days of 70s to start the second week of March.  Unlikely that verifies but the longwave pattern is definitely getting a warmer look at that point. 

I think it may be over cooked.   Admittedly don't have a lot of confidence though. 

I've seen this in the past where these early season modeled warm bulges end up 18 hours of misty warm sector.  I've literally seen a D11-14 run of 75 F days end up verifying one day of 62. What happens is the progressive footprint sped up the frontal advance 1 hour/run for week's worth until the first 2 days are claimed.  Meanwhile, the wedged in BD air mass is 18 hours too fast to erode out in the guidance.  No one wins: no snow; warmth gypped. 

This one does have the index/ens spacial synoptics backing the -PNA, so we'll see. 

I'm perfectly happy with melt and mud and leave it at that for now... which no one wins in that boredom either. Ha

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Euro OP is way south    She gone?

It came north.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Euro OP is way south    She gone?

Beer?

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It came north.

From 6z??

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

34 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

2 2-footers in less than a month can really bum a guy out.  Think of all those missed opportunities, everything left on the table!  Oh my...

We love scooter the punching bag. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Although the operational Euro's 12z likeness to the GFS operational is quite impressive for 260+ hours. 

Wow... maybe so, huh.   

I mean, sometimes big signals come over the temporal horizon of the modeling earlier - the underlying supporting physical circumstances have a lot of prominence in the flow.   It's the same reason "Sandy", and "1993" and probably a handful of other notables of lore were also remarkably early signals that stuck around the guidance. 

No reason why that can't happen with heat burst synoptics.   maybe. We'll see.   It sort of hearkens to a climo Omega Block - more typically found in latter March and April. 

[Torch Tiger]

Euro AI holds back on the heat...just a general mild up. Hope its wrong but more likely than days of 70's ofc

[MJO812]

Its coming 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its coming 

After the early March threat there's a huge early spring warm up possible then maybe late March there's one more shot at something. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

After the early March threat there's a huge early spring warm up possible then maybe late March there's one more shot at something. 

An Easter storm would be something 

[Typhoon Tip]

False and/or bad information by those that don't have it right

 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

At this point I think it’d be funny to finish BN while they crush it down there.

how far BN are you? i am around 10" short

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

how far BN are you? i am around 10" short

Probably near normal to date. But I probably average high 70s long term so maybe 12-18” away from normal. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It came north.

Monday into Tuesday?  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its coming 

That looks so real and so scary. What should we do?