"Don’t do it" 2026 Blizzard obs, updates and pictures.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

2 separate coworkers, one in Taunton on Berkley line and the other down in Tiverton both had not had their streets plowed as of this AM

Your neighborhood growing up took almost a week to get plowed in ‘78

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would never have guessed that was under "lower"dynamics...

what was your final i see 9 on that interactive map

[BombsAway1288]

17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

What do we think about the Fall River, MA 41? I noticed BOX did not include it in the PNS or interactive map. 37.9" at TF Green is still the jackpot

Maybe because it looked like the pics were from a drift or just the total overall snow depth that had some on the ground before the blizzard?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

what was your final i see 9 on that interactive map

10"

[Baroclinic Zone]

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Your neighborhood growing up took almost a week to get plowed in ‘78

Yeah it did. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

9 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Maybe because it looked like the pics were from a drift or just the total overall snow depth that had some on the ground before the blizzard?

Maybe a little slant sticked but not by much. Plenty of 36-37” reports in that area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

In a typical developing (i.e. not peak intensity) storm your frontogenesis is going to be sloped towards the cold air. 850 is farther southeast than 700 mb, and so on. Lift tends to be maximized around 700 mb, hence congrats Dendrite.

This storm bombed out a little farther south, so one of the first things I noticed was the position of the forecast 700 and 850 mb frontogenesis.

While still sloped a bit, it's far more collocated/vertically stacked. That signaled to me that one major band would develop. And that look at 700 mb with a secondary band farther north suggested to me that it wasn't going to be a uniform precip shield. That a subsidence zone was possible between the two. I may have sent a text about toaster baths in the LWM area to @CoastalWx and @CT Rain Sunday.

I made a little gif too, so you can see how the forcing is overlaid.

I do think part of the problem with the secondary band was that it was advecting so much dry air into the storm. @dendrite posted somewhere along the line the map of RH, and 50% across central NH just wasn't going to get it done for that northern extent. It was like a dry wedge in the usually CAD spots. 

Are you speaking of 700mb RH? Oh, surface...I see it.

I always say shitty forecasts are the best learning tools...This is a perfect example of it. Class is session...I'll do better next blizzard.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks to me like CT managed MECS numbers due to the decaying H7 fronto that hit Delaware, but that was cooked by the time it got to me, as all fronto aligned over SE MA and RI. I know I posted a couple of times about being afraid that fronto hole that was originally over CT would end up over me with the combo of slightly delayed development and the se tic.

Exactly what happened...CT got the 15-25" zone that I had for my area.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Are you speaking of 700mb RH? Oh, surface...I see it.

I always say shitty forecasts are the best learning tools...This is a perfect example of it. Class is session...I'll do better next blizzard.

Absolutely. 

As I stated above, I'm a bit frustrated because the signs and signals where there and present, but not sure why I avoided them. Ultimately, I think I did too much to talk myself out of why I didn't think it would happen instead of taking as a flag. I might have let some of the latest QPF jumps (Friday) get to me and I don't know why because QPF totals are actually the very last thing I really look it. 

When I was looking at hose fronto maps from FSU and going nuts...I kept telling myself its weird how quick it is with the front and how it evolved it to depict the two bands but didn't want to believe it I guess. 

[ORH_wxman]

I’m not sure how you could discredit the 40”+ totals near Fall River. It’s an impossible task anyway and additionally, they were probably in the best stuff longer than TF Green airport was. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am working on a post mortem now and will illustrate all of this. See, this is me now, as opposed to 10 years ago....now I'm able to bare the busted forecast trauma to salvage growth.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I’m not sure how you could discredit the 40”+ totals near Fall River. It’s an impossible task anyway and additionally, they were probably in the best stuff longer than TF Green airport was. 

Yea, I have no issue with it....RAD and pics align. in fact, if I were there, I would have measured 50" because I would not have slept and cleared every 6 hours.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Absolutely. 

As I stated above, I'm a bit frustrated because the signs and signals where there and present, but not sure why I avoided them. Ultimately, I think I did too much to talk myself out of why I didn't think it would happen instead of taking as a flag. I might have let some of the latest QPF jumps (Friday) get to me and I don't know why because QPF totals are actually the very last thing I really look it. 

When I was looking at hose fronto maps from FSU and going nuts...I kept telling myself its weird how quick it is with the front and how it evolved it to depict the two bands but didn't want to believe it I guess. 

I deal with fatigue and time constraints, too...I make excuses to talk my self out of needed to redo anything, which I normally don't do, anyway...I'm not a pro, so I don't other to correct Final products...but the writing was on the wall...notice I went to sleep at 330. NEVER would have happened had I been excited about what I Saw. If you live in my area and see my sleep during an event, you're fucked.

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I have no issue with it....RAD and pics align. in fact, if I were there, I would have measured 50" because I would not have slept and cleared every 6 hours.

I dont even know how you clear and measure every 6 with winds like that, doesnt it just fill back in from the surrounding snow anyway?

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I have no issue with it....RAD and pics align. in fact, if I were there, I would have measured 50" because I would not have slept and cleared every 6 hours.

Prob would’ve been closer to 43-45” or so in clearing because once you are getting 15”+ totals in a 6 hour period like they were, the compaction is already getting baked in to an extent. Also, the snow there wasn’t particularly fluffy for a chunk of the storm. 
 

I feel like the biggest discrepancies happen in less windy storms with excellent snow growth and middle type totals. Like that 10-20” range over 18 hours. Or…say you get a very long duration event like ‘78 or Feb ‘69…then you can start adding up those small differences every 6 hours. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I dont even know how you clear and measure every 6 with winds like that, doesnt it just fill back in from the surrounding snow anyway?

True...I couldn't pull it off this storm  I had to average out the drifts.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I deal with fatigue and time constraints, too...I make excuses to talk my self out of needed to redo anything, which I normally don't do, anyway...I'm not a pro, so I don't other to correct Final products...but the writing was on the wall...notice I went to sleep at 330. NEVER would have happened had I been excited about what I Saw. If you live in my area and see my sleep during an event, you're fucked.

Fatigue and time constraints absolutely play a role. It's why I'm not particularly active anymore blogging unless there is a big event. I have to do forecasts for all over the country and when its crazy I am so exhausted I don't have the time or energy to put the focus and detail I would like into the maps/blogs I post...it kind of sucks. This is why I am going to transition to doing videos instead. I suck with technology but I'm slowly getting there. 

I went to bed around 7:30 Sunday night and woke up just before 3:00. One look outside and I knew I was totally screwed but I'll say, it did bring me joy and some sense of peace reading the accounts from others who got into the goods. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am working on a post mortem now and will illustrate all of this. See, this is me now, as opposed to 10 years ago....now I'm able to bare the busted forecast trauma to savage growth.

I wouldn’t call your forecast shitty.  It was just a bit north of where the goods really happened.  Don’t beat yourself up.  

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I wouldn’t call your forecast shitty.  It was just a bit north of where the goods really happened.  Don’t beat yourself up.  

Yeah the day before I thought it was fine. Maybe in the finals hours leading into the event I would’ve gone a little more conservative on the northern parts, but overall it was a tough forecast. You can’t kick yourself too much when it trends like 75-100 miles SE in the final 6-10 hours.  

[amarshall]

Our friends around the corner from you said the street is still not plowed and no power.

We’re not plowed, but I have power. Also have a big lifted truck for such occasions where I can drive around with an open beer can and get around wherever I want.


.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I deal with fatigue and time constraints, too...I make excuses to talk my self out of needed to redo anything, which I normally don't do, anyway...I'm not a pro, so I don't other to correct Final products...but the writing was on the wall...notice I went to sleep at 330. NEVER would have happened had I been excited about what I Saw. If you live in my area and see my sleep during an event, you're fucked.

Exactly....agree. DT was breaking my balls on Facebook......dude always makes excuses when he busts..."The data changed"....love that one. Like...WTF is a forecast for if you can anticipate late trends and know when the data is BS?? He always used that excuse.

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the day before I thought it was fine. Maybe in the finals hours leading into the event I would’ve gone a little more conservative on the northern parts, but overall it was a tough forecast. You can’t kick yourself too much when it trends like 75-100 miles SE in the final 6-10 hours.  

 

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob would’ve been closer to 43-45” or so in clearing because once you are getting 15”+ totals in a 6 hour period like they were, the compaction is already getting baked in to an extent. Also, the snow there wasn’t particularly fluffy for a chunk of the storm. 
 

I feel like the biggest discrepancies happen in less windy storms with excellent snow growth and middle type totals. Like that 10-20” range over 18 hours. Or…say you get a very long duration event like ‘78 or Feb ‘69…then you can start adding up those small differences every 6 hours. 

Yeah fluff bombs like Jan 7th 2022 and Feb 7th 2021 with virtually no wind, short 6-10hr duration are the best for getting nice uniform snowfall totals.

Events like these are a nightmare. And even worse 3 day events like Mar 2001. 

[CCHurricane]

Have been without power in Barnstable (Cape Cod) since 4AM yesterday. 

Cell service has been non-existent away from Route 28. Not being able to track radar yesterday was so frustrating.

21” here in Barnstable, but measuring in a blizzard is never easy.

Can’t wait to chow down on +50 pages of event observations tonight.

[dendrite]

How do you even clear in 40+ mph winds without already fallen snow drifting or blowing back into your cleared area (essentially filling the bowl back in). 

I think I’d be tempted to measure this at the very end as well. Luckily I rarely get much wind with my snow. 

[acoolerclimate]

1 hour ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Are you in a sheltered area by any chance? You said 22-28 inches depending on drifting and accounting for compaction and being in a sheltered area could also affect this. I'm not sure how big N Prov is....maybe it was a very sharp cutoff? Even downtown PVD had some 36" readings which is even more than what I got.

My back yard is fairly open, as well as the driveway, but there are a lot of trees. My sister on the Northeast side of N Prov, says she measured around 30 inches. I was just in a bad spot, I guess. 

[NSwx]

Lots of digging this morning. 

[WxWatcher007]

I mean, image of the season stuff right here. 

[codfishsnowman]

4 hours ago, NoCORH4L said:

This is why although noreaster's are fun, it's often feast or famine and many are left disappointed.  MegaSWFEs like we had in JAN are our best events because it was snow all the way to Canada, with nice consistent accumulations. They also seem to stack dendrites better over a huge area, and often are longer duration.

In good conscience I can only record 6 inches where I am. It was very disappointing but watching the system bury the bottom half of RI was pretty cool. Tracking the system for a few days was cool too. It seemed from just north of Providence the amounts for awhile went down pretty quick...that is one of the biggest variances in snow amounts over a short distance I have ever heard of , Inverted troughs aside.

[CoastalWx]

44 minutes ago, dendrite said:

How do you even clear in 40+ mph winds without already fallen snow drifting or blowing back into your cleared area (essentially filling the bowl back in). 

I think I’d be tempted to measure this at the very end as well. Luckily I rarely get much wind with my snow. 

I said that yesterday. I don’t even bother every 6 hours when it’s that windy. I’m exposed to the N and E too.