2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[NorthArlington101]

Here’s the thing, I need to decide whether to come home a day early. Here’s my bars. Less than 6” and I’ll be really really pissed I bothered to come home. 6-10 I’ll call it even. 10+ I’d be super pissed I didn’t come home. Help me make a decision lol. 

I’d lean the lower edge of call it even but I’m just a guy. Best of luck lol

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I’m hoping to much of the same here. He’s remind me of your elevation? @psuhoffman 950, 1050?

I'm hoping our areas can get into the meat of the IVT. Lots of models putting that over or close to our hoods.

Definitely more of a nowcast with that feature. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Here’s the thing, I need to decide whether to come home a day early. Here’s my bars. Less than 6” and I’ll be really really pissed I bothered to come home. 6-10 I’ll call it even. 10+ I’d be super pissed I didn’t come home. Help me make a decision lol. 

I like you for just about 6… of course lol 

[schinz]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Here’s the thing, I need to decide whether to come home a day early. Here’s my bars. Less than 6” and I’ll be really really pissed I bothered to come home. 6-10 I’ll call it even. 10+ I’d be super pissed I didn’t come home. Help me make a decision lol. 

I say call it even!!!

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Your mountain doesnt work anymore in this Nina dominated climate. Get a second place in S DE. Blizzards galore!

You joke but when my area gets results from a miller b it’s ratio dependent. I never out qpf places east of me but I’ve pulled off 15-20” from .75-1” qpf before. If I get 5” of slop from .7 qpf because it’s 33-34 degrees that is very much related to the issue you’re making fun of. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like WPC probabilities of 6"+ are 50% for inside the DC Beltway, 70% further north into Annapolis and most of Baltimore metro.

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE for the last time I’m not saying we can’t get snow when everything goes perfect. If a deform crushed us with 2” qpf. But if I need marginal to work. Thats when we’re bleeding results away and you know that. Not sure why you think it’s funny. I don’t.  It is what it is. But I don’t find it funny at all. 

[DDweatherman]

Predictions for the 12z euros? Come back more like 6z did or slide east? 

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE for the last time I’m not saying we can’t get snow when everything goes perfect. If a deform crushed us with 2” qpf. But if I need marginal to work. Thats when we’re bleeding results away and you know that. Not sure why you think it’s funny. I don’t.  It is what it is. But I don’t find it funny at all. 

Dude chill. Just having a little fun. You take this too seriously lol.

[snowmagnet]

Are there good examples of Miller B’s that worked out for the DMV?  I think OBX is the prime area for a coastal setup for the DC metro. OC tends to be too far north for us. Is that true?

[bncho]

Just now, snowmagnet said:

Are there good examples of Miller B’s that worked out for the DMV?  I think OBX is the prime area for a coastal setup for the DC metro. OC tends to be too far north for us. Is that true?

Feb 5 2010

[psuhoffman]

Just now, CAPE said:

Dude chill. Just having a little fun. You take this too seriously lol.

HECS opportunities are rare and I’ve missed the last 4 chances over the last 8 years by very narrow margins. I missed 20” snows by 20 miles twice to the NW and twice to the NE and yes I’m a little bent right now because I think the writing is on the wall that’s going to happen again tomorrow!  I had hoped maybe with the trends we’d get the one last west tend needed but Im starting to get the sinking feeling the heavy snows end up just NE of me. And yes I’m upset about it  I’m allowed to be  I’m not gonna bunch furry animals like Bob but I’m upset ok  

 

[snowmagnet]

Just now, bncho said:

Feb 5 2010

 Snowmageddon - the second storm?. We got about 10” in Fairfax while Baltimore got about double that.  

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Dude chill. Just having a little fun. You take this too seriously lol.

People get too worked up over this stuff. Over the last 2 years I learned to just let it go. Do I want snow? Sure. Am I going to freak out over it not? No 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, snowmagnet said:

 Snowmageddon - the second storm?. We got about 10” in Fairfax while Baltimore got about double that.  

Triple (if you mean 2/5/10). They got closer to 20 in the follow up blizzard. 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Feb 5 2010

 

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

 Snowmageddon - the second storm?. We got about 10” in Fairfax while Baltimore got about double that.  

Yeah, not Feb 5.  Feb 9-10.  

[bncho]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

 

Yeah, not Feb 5.  Feb 9-10.  

Yeah mb, was talking about the second one, not the first

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

People get too worked up over this stuff. Over the last 2 years I learned to just let it go. Do I want snow? Sure. Am I going to freak out over it not? No 

Yep...its weather. No need to be a drama queen about it all the time.

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

People get too worked up over this stuff. Over the last 2 years I learned to just let it go. Do I want snow? Sure. Am I going to freak out over it not? No 

For everyone here, he’s full of it. Don’t let him lie to you lol, he’s just like us including hoff. Love him to death but I’ve seen too many Jekyll and Hyde texts about this to know, and I’ve sent the same shit.

Let’s just get some good breaks later today and at game time. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

For everyone here, he’s full of it. Don’t let him lie to you lol, he’s just like us including hoff. Love him to death but I’ve seen too many Jekyll and Hyde texts about this to know, and I’ve sent the same shit.

Let’s just get some good breaks later today and at game time. 

Since when have I got upset that it’s not snowing? I haven’t. I say who cares. I don’t. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

HECS opportunities are rare and I’ve missed the last 4 chances over the last 8 years by very narrow margins. I missed 20” snows by 20 miles twice to the NW and twice to the NE and yes I’m a little bent right now because I think the writing is on the wall that’s going to happen again tomorrow!  I had hoped maybe with the trends we’d get the one last west tend needed but Im starting to get the sinking feeling the heavy snows end up just NE of me. And yes I’m upset about it  I’m allowed to be  I’m not gonna bunch furry animals like Bob but I’m upset ok  

 

I have missed them too. Been on the western edge of the big beach storms, with 5-7".

Done well with moderate snows in the last few winters, but all under 10" (One was 9)

Last double digit storm here was 2016 and that was pretty crappy because of the dry slot. No deform snow at all.

[mitchnick]

Psu, don't know if you've checked, but NWS gives you 3-6" thru Sunday night with a blanket forecast of "Snow" for Monday without stating accumulations. It's a close call, but 6-10" is probably a decent guess at this point imho.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I am looking forward to tomorrow around 7pm, most models have heavy snow for us at that time.  Gonna be a nice solid perhaps last of the season jebwalk, obviously our chances of the big HECS totals are walking NE but I wouldn’t be surprised to be pleasantly surprised tomorrow night, very dynamic system. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Since when have I got upset that it’s not snowing? I haven’t. I say who cares. I don’t. 

I got quite literally hundreds of receipts documenting your illness tracking these storms. If you mean you fixed it here in February, maybe.. lol not for the last 2 years. It’s ok to admit we’re all desperate effin weenies. 

[Scraff]

I saw the NAM earlier and obviously freaked. Made a quick run to the store for all the essentials. Who’s coming over for Tofu? My treat. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

I got quite literally hundreds of receipts documenting your illness tracking these storms. If you mean you fixed it here in February, maybe.. lol not for the last 2 years. It’s ok to admit we’re all desperate effin weenies. 

Track them yes. But I’m not crying over a storm misses. I don’t care if I get 1” or 15”. It’s whatever 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Track them yes. But I’m not crying over a storm misses. I don’t care if I get 1” or 15”. It’s whatever 

Well it’s hard once we get eff’d. We’re not gonna go on a foot’s forecast livestream and cry to the internet. 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

People get too worked up over this stuff. Over the last 2 years I learned to just let it go. Do I want snow? Sure. Am I going to freak out over it not? No 

Being upset and freaking out are not the same thing. People act like making a somewhat negative comment on here is being unhinged. We’ve seen some unhinged recently. Me saying I’m upset at missing a hecs by a narrow margin is just typical frustration. People do worse when a sports team they root for loses. 

[snowfan]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I saw the NAM earlier and obviously freaked. Made a quick run to the store for all the essentials. Who’s coming over for Tofu? My treat. 

That poor top shelf. Heavy breathing like a mofo. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Track them yes. But I’m not crying over a storm misses. I don’t care if I get 1” or 15”. It’s whatever 

I say we get at least 1" qpf up here despite any model to the contrary. We've overperformed the last 10 days and I say it happens again.