2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Kuchera is not snow depth

I was comparing his 10:1 map to the Kuchera map and responding to his statement to cut 10:1 by 25-33% to get Kuchera. 

[Twilly05]

Where is bob chill????

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

That’s part of the norlun trough. Watch for that scenario closely. I’m not kidding when I say someone well away from the coast will have a nice surprise. 

Lol. Rgem drops 10"+ on my yard with that narrow band. It'll be in a different place the next run. 

Someone is going to get a ft of snow even away from the coastal. 

[Eskimo Joe]

31 minutes ago, Newman said:

 

[IUsedToHateCold]

3 minutes ago, Twilly05 said:

Where is bob chill????

he's kind of out of the game on this one

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, Twilly05 said:

Where is bob chill????

He's in southern VA. He's yard has no skin in the game this time

 

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I was comparing his 10:1 map to the Kuchera map and responding to his statement to cut 10:1 by 25-33% to get Kuchera. 

I understand I'm just saying I think snowdepth is a better measure, HOWEVER.... I read a couple things from some Mets that sometimes that can be too low so I'm learning lol. Just trying not to set myself up for disappointment.

[Eskimo Joe]

00z ICON has 3"/hr rates on Delmarva at 1am on Monday with a sub-980 low. Definitely a marginal risk for thundersnow too. Unreal.

[Cobalt]

Icon EPS is 0.9" QPF for DC. Substantial shift west from 18z. Some pretty tucked members in the mix.

[WxMan1]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

That's what @WxMan1just posted- snow depth. Real numbers 

I will say though that those either within the Norlun trough band west of the Bay or over on the Eastern Shore closer to the low will likely see less disparity in projected Kutchera snowfall and positive snow depth change. That's all because of the rates. It really is gonna come down to that (...for the nth time mentioned, right?) Those areas likely closer to 8/9 or even 10-1 SLRs after 21Z Sun. 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Lol. Rgem drops 10"+ on my yard with that narrow band. It'll be in a different place the next run. 

Someone is going to get a ft of snow even away from the coastal. 

The band will probably be a bit wider than that, but the premise stands. Idk where, but my wag is somewhere between Winchester to just east of the Potomac. That seems to be where consensus is lying. It’ll orient north-northwest to south-southeast too. I’m looking forward to seeing how that materializes. 

[baltosquid]

ICON ensembles.

Get. Over. Here!

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

00z ICON has 3"/hr rates on Delmarva at 1am on Monday with a sub-980 low. Definitely a marginal risk for thundersnow too. Unreal.

This is surreal....but it seems like there is a non zero chance of a top ten event over here 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

ICON ensembles.

Get. Over. Here!

Toggling the ICON EPS that’s like 8 runs in a row westward shift, maybe more, any reason it stops now?

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, WxMan1 said:

I will say though that those either within the Norlun trough band west of the Bay or over on the Eastern Shore closer to the low will likely see less disparity in projected Kutchera snowfall and positive snow depth change. That's all because of the rates. It really is gonna come down to that (...for the nth time mentioned, right?) Those areas likely closer to 8/9 or even 10-1 SLRs after 21Z Sun. 

I was seeing 12-15:1 in the CCB and norlun on the desk today from guidance. I was shocked. It was brutal 5-7:1 during the day, but as height falls ensued, it crashed hard to climo and better. Even the NAMNest got to 13:1 on the eastern shore. Someone is about to get hammered on the Delmarva and I’m liking my spot here right along the west shore of the Bay. Hopefully we can bring this home  

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

The band will probably be a bit wider than that, but the premise stands. Idk where, but my wag is somewhere between Winchester to just east of the Potomac. That seems to be where consensus is lying. It’ll orient north-northwest to south-southeast too. I’m looking forward to seeing how that materializes. 

Go on . . .

[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

This is surreal....but it seems like there is a non zero chance of a top ten event over here 

Dover needs a little more than a foot to crack their top ten. I'd take that bet.

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

I will say though that those either within the Norlun trough band west of the Bay or over on the Eastern Shore closer to the low will likely see less disparity in projected Kutchera snowfall and positive snow depth change. That's all because of the rates. It really is gonna come down to that (...for the nth time mentioned, right?) Those areas likely closer to 8/9 or even 10-1 SLRs after 21Z Sun. 

Here in RVA looking like NAM and GFS seems like good rates right around dark-hoping it gives us something down here, but I'm hesitant to be hopeful.

[bncho]

I agree with this map. 

[RickinBaltimore]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

I agree with this map. 

Baltimore you're getting....well damn if I know

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Dover needs a little more than a foot to crack their top ten. I'd take that bet.

All time is 25"....

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Its crazy watching what will be a textbook nor easter unfold on the models. Just perfect way to showcase the dance between upper and lower levels.

[SnowGolfBro]

9 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Icon EPS is 0.9" QPF for DC. Substantial shift west from 18z. Some pretty tucked members in the mix.

The 989 off OC…

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

ICON ensembles.

Get. Over. Here!

That's a pretty big jump for one run! And indeed...

⁸

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

I agree with this map. 

Seems pretty reasonable for an initial broad forecast on amounts, given the uncertainty that still exists.  Either way, that's a warning-level amount across much of this subforum and beyond, including DC-Balt.

[bncho]

It's begun.

[Nomz]

And the GFS is off

[bncho]

I like the GFS a little bit better

at hour 21 fyi

[baltosquid]

Not sure where bncho is but I'll say at 24 the heights are higher both behind and in front.

Edit: bncho arrives!