mitchnick Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Kuchera is not snow depth I was comparing his 10:1 map to the Kuchera map and responding to his statement to cut 10:1 by 25-33% to get Kuchera. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Where is bob chill???? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: That’s part of the norlun trough. Watch for that scenario closely. I’m not kidding when I say someone well away from the coast will have a nice surprise. Lol. Rgem drops 10"+ on my yard with that narrow band. It'll be in a different place the next run. Someone is going to get a ft of snow even away from the coastal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 31 minutes ago, Newman said: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Twilly05 said: Where is bob chill???? he's kind of out of the game on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, Twilly05 said: Where is bob chill???? He's in southern VA. He's yard has no skin in the game this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I was comparing his 10:1 map to the Kuchera map and responding to his statement to cut 10:1 by 25-33% to get Kuchera. I understand I'm just saying I think snowdepth is a better measure, HOWEVER.... I read a couple things from some Mets that sometimes that can be too low so I'm learning lol. Just trying not to set myself up for disappointment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 00z ICON has 3"/hr rates on Delmarva at 1am on Monday with a sub-980 low. Definitely a marginal risk for thundersnow too. Unreal. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Icon EPS is 0.9" QPF for DC. Substantial shift west from 18z. Some pretty tucked members in the mix. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: That's what @WxMan1just posted- snow depth. Real numbers I will say though that those either within the Norlun trough band west of the Bay or over on the Eastern Shore closer to the low will likely see less disparity in projected Kutchera snowfall and positive snow depth change. That's all because of the rates. It really is gonna come down to that (...for the nth time mentioned, right?) Those areas likely closer to 8/9 or even 10-1 SLRs after 21Z Sun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Chris78 said: Lol. Rgem drops 10"+ on my yard with that narrow band. It'll be in a different place the next run. Someone is going to get a ft of snow even away from the coastal. The band will probably be a bit wider than that, but the premise stands. Idk where, but my wag is somewhere between Winchester to just east of the Potomac. That seems to be where consensus is lying. It’ll orient north-northwest to south-southeast too. I’m looking forward to seeing how that materializes. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 ICON ensembles. Get. Over. Here! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: 00z ICON has 3"/hr rates on Delmarva at 1am on Monday with a sub-980 low. Definitely a marginal risk for thundersnow too. Unreal. This is surreal....but it seems like there is a non zero chance of a top ten event over here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: ICON ensembles. Get. Over. Here! Toggling the ICON EPS that’s like 8 runs in a row westward shift, maybe more, any reason it stops now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, WxMan1 said: I will say though that those either within the Norlun trough band west of the Bay or over on the Eastern Shore closer to the low will likely see less disparity in projected Kutchera snowfall and positive snow depth change. That's all because of the rates. It really is gonna come down to that (...for the nth time mentioned, right?) Those areas likely closer to 8/9 or even 10-1 SLRs after 21Z Sun. I was seeing 12-15:1 in the CCB and norlun on the desk today from guidance. I was shocked. It was brutal 5-7:1 during the day, but as height falls ensued, it crashed hard to climo and better. Even the NAMNest got to 13:1 on the eastern shore. Someone is about to get hammered on the Delmarva and I’m liking my spot here right along the west shore of the Bay. Hopefully we can bring this home 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, MillvilleWx said: The band will probably be a bit wider than that, but the premise stands. Idk where, but my wag is somewhere between Winchester to just east of the Potomac. That seems to be where consensus is lying. It’ll orient north-northwest to south-southeast too. I’m looking forward to seeing how that materializes. Go on . . . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: This is surreal....but it seems like there is a non zero chance of a top ten event over here Dover needs a little more than a foot to crack their top ten. I'd take that bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: I will say though that those either within the Norlun trough band west of the Bay or over on the Eastern Shore closer to the low will likely see less disparity in projected Kutchera snowfall and positive snow depth change. That's all because of the rates. It really is gonna come down to that (...for the nth time mentioned, right?) Those areas likely closer to 8/9 or even 10-1 SLRs after 21Z Sun. Here in RVA looking like NAM and GFS seems like good rates right around dark-hoping it gives us something down here, but I'm hesitant to be hopeful. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I agree with this map. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, bncho said: I agree with this map. Baltimore you're getting....well damn if I know 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Nomz said: Dover needs a little more than a foot to crack their top ten. I'd take that bet. All time is 25".... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Its crazy watching what will be a textbook nor easter unfold on the models. Just perfect way to showcase the dance between upper and lower levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Icon EPS is 0.9" QPF for DC. Substantial shift west from 18z. Some pretty tucked members in the mix. The 989 off OC… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 10 minutes ago, baltosquid said: ICON ensembles. Get. Over. Here! That's a pretty big jump for one run! And indeed... ⁸ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, bncho said: I agree with this map. Seems pretty reasonable for an initial broad forecast on amounts, given the uncertainty that still exists. Either way, that's a warning-level amount across much of this subforum and beyond, including DC-Balt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 It's begun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 And the GFS is off 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I like the GFS a little bit better at hour 21 fyi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Not sure where bncho is but I'll say at 24 the heights are higher both behind and in front. Edit: bncho arrives! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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