2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[stormtracker]

Couple of things:

My pbp is shitty, but goddamn yall are fucking it up in here.

Got to Houston to the airbnb and let me tell you...it's in a crack infested run down ass trenches ghetto.  Hey, I didn't plan it, but damn.  It's literally on the other side of the tracks...there's a train next to the back gate.  And a dead dog.

I'm miserable already and I'll miss you guys.   Imma pour one out for yall and this storm.   I'm still looking at models and it's making me sad, but I'm with yinz in spirit.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, mitchnick said:

It follows the curvature of the Bay up near NE MD. Somebody should ring those Englishmen running the Euro on the telly that they're off onbthe Bay temps.

Meh, they use Celsius, we use Fahrenheit, plus they drive on the wrong side of the road!!  There's your problem!! 

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I think I'd like a GFS solution just to be safe...that divide on this particular run puts Central MD in between the two maxes.

Can the globals pick that out this early though? 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Couple of things:

My pbp is shitty, but goddamn yall are fucking it up in here.

Got to Houston to the airbnb and let me tell you...it's in a crack infested run down ass trenches ghetto.  Hey, I didn't plan it, but damn

I'm miserable already and I'll miss you guys.   Imma pour one out for yall and this storm.   I'm still looking at models and it's making me sad, but I'm with yinz in spirit.

who is "yall"... 

[CAPE]

Looks like that crazy GFS model may have had the right idea all along.

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

who is "yall"... 

My bad, I should have just said bnacho

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Couple of things:

My pbp is shitty, but goddamn yall are fucking it up in here.

Got to Houston to the airbnb and let me tell you...it's in a crack infested run down ass trenches ghetto.  Hey, I didn't plan it, but damn.  It's literally on the other side of the tracks...there's a train next to the back gate.  And a dead dog.

I'm miserable already and I'll miss you guys.   Imma pour one out for yall and this storm.   I'm still looking at models and it's making me sad, but I'm with yinz in spirit.

What did I miss? Da hell are you doing there?

[csnavywx]

15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

At some point there will be a sharp western edge on this one, but question is how far back west. There will be a crazy west to east gradient before you reach the coastal Delmarva, but could be a ton of precip between the edge and there. 
 

EC continues to be one of the eastern most solutions and it’s still upping the ante. Good sign. 

Hard to believe, but it can improve on that run. Tighten up the phase a bit more and neg. tilt a bit earlier (or just slower in general). Basically where the GFS has been for some time, lol.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think I'd like a GFS solution just to be safe...that divide on this particular run puts Central MD in between the two maxes.

I half wonder if the GFS is itself almost becoming a "consensus" model!!  It's backed way off from the crazy 30-40" amounts from the 12Z cycle yesterday, but it's more or less kept the same overall look and development.  And the amounts (outside the really nutty run) are pretty damned good overall.

(ETA:  Yes, I've had a bit to drink, and called the GFS a "consensus" look, OMG!!!)

[stormtracker]

Just now, CAPE said:

What did I miss? Da hell are you doing there?

Man, I had to go to Houston for my bf friend's birthday.  I'm going to play the part, but I'm dying inside.

[mitchnick]

Just now, CAPE said:

Looks like that crazy GFS model may have had the right idea all along.

It's still light years better for most than the rest of the models, however, even at this stage. 

 

[Random Chaos]

Just measured the bay temperature with an IR thermometer, 33.8F. Near shore so might be high given daytime solar heating on shallow water. Near bay bridge.

[CAPE]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Man, I had to go to Houston for my bf friend's birthday.  I'm going to play the part, but I'm dying inside.

Good man. Hell of a sacrifice.

[snowfan]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Couple of things:

My pbp is shitty, but goddamn yall are fucking it up in here.

Got to Houston to the airbnb and let me tell you...it's in a crack infested run down ass trenches ghetto.  Hey, I didn't plan it, but damn.  It's literally on the other side of the tracks...there's a train next to the back gate.  And a dead dog.

I'm miserable already and I'll miss you guys.   Imma pour one out for yall and this storm.   I'm still looking at models and it's making me sad, but I'm with yinz in spirit.

I've never met anyone that willingly went to Houston 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

I've never met anyone that willingly went to Houston 

And you still haven't.

[GATECH]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Man, I had to go to Houston for my bf friend's birthday.  I'm going to play the part, but I'm dying inside.

If we get a HECS while you are in Houston, I foresee many future trips there for you…I’ll set up the ‘go fund me’ now!

[DDweatherman]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

who is "yall"... 

I think you missed my post because it was at the end of a page, but you made the changes and improvements sound overstated this run. Then you did post an h57 trend that was noise differences 

[Fozz]

13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Correct! I do think there’s a limit right now for west of the Bay, but sky is the limit for the Delmarva. I would kill to be on eastern LI or Souteast Mass for this sucker. I really like the look for DE. They should be preparing for an onslaught Sunday evening into the overnight. Tons of mashed potatoes. 

I was looking at the winds for coastal MA, and if Cape Cod remains all snow then it will be a brutal blizzard there. 12-18” with sustained winds 45 mph and gusts to hurricane force.

In any case if this storm is even half decent for this region then the GFS is owed some massive kudos.

[Cobalt]

AI EPS has 1.0 QPF for DC

[baltosquid]

Watching the Euro across all its offerings juice the ridges behind and in front of the trough sure is something. Concerning the EPS in particular, I really want to see at least a couple aggressively tucked members... a tick W would be good don't get me wrong, but seeing the upside cases show up would make me more confident the trend will continue.

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Watching the Euro across all its offerings juice the ridges behind and in front of the trough sure is something. Concerning the EPS in particular, I really want to see at least a couple aggressively tucked members... a tick W would be good don't get me wrong, but seeing the upside cases show up would make me more confident the trend will continue.

I think those western ones are pretty satisfying!

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

I think those western ones are pretty satisfying!

Man, keep this thing coming. That’s such a nice mean. 

[bncho]

EPS AI

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

I think those western ones are pretty satisfying!

Nice to see the eastern outliers going away.

[Eskimo Joe]

Latest NBM pushes double digit snowfall west to I-81. . . 

 

 

[IronTy]

WJLA forecast...Veronica Johnson?   Those are some strange odds they use to calculate? 

"5% odds....strike that, make it one in twenty-five!"

[Wetbulbs88]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Saddens me to so ENE pushing their way into the scene. Lucky bastids.

Happens roughly 95% of the time. Our storm either becomes their storm or becomes more their storm. 

[Wetbulbs88]

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

WJLA forecast...Veronica Johnson?   Those are some strange odds they use to calculate? 

"5% odds....strike that, make it one in twenty-five!"

That would be 4% 

[Roger Smith]

Are we sending the shortwaves correctly? I don't want to mess up this order. 

[LeesburgWx]

We’ve been trending in the right direction for like 24 hours now. Another few tweaks west and it’s gold