Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

absolute fucking cinema

Yess !!! 

[Terpeast]

Seems euro made a bigger move west than the gfs moved east. Maybe they meet in the middle and give us 6-10”.  That would be nice

[winter_warlock]

 00z model runs are gonna be epic!!!!!!

[Demeter]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I think most will see snow. Even if it doesn’t accumulate 

Any flakes flying will put a smile on my face so I’ll take it! 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Pretty nice change on the AI Euro..

Looks like the change the AI GFS made tbh.

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Yep.  

One comparison to 12Z with WB EURO AI. 7pm Sunday at 18Z v. 12Z.

[stormtracker]

So.  Is this the Euro nodding to <hold on, I just threw up in my mouth> the GFS?

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I'm curious to know how much precipitation falls after sunset Sunday.

Euro ai is about .4-.6 range from you to me, but probably on the higher side as I can only see 1pm then 7pm  

[LeesburgWx]

I mean guys, GFS leading the way for sure now

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Seems euro made a bigger move west than the gfs moved east. Maybe they meet in the middle and give us 6-10”.  That would be nice

This, absolutely!  I of course do not buy the crazy intense GFS solutions with record-breaking snows (though fun to look at from the perspective of just what COULD happen in the most ideal, extreme case!).  But I am encouraged that we could still quite possibly see a decent warning-level snow.  I think that would be quite a win.

[Jake Wx]

Best under 100 hour suite in how long ?

[LeesburgWx]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Looks like the change the AI GFS made tbh.

Massive change. Quite surprised we are heading down this road

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

My flight leaves at 12:35pm tomorrow. I need this resolved by 12z.  I've already told the bf that if other models hop on board by 11:30, I'm going right the fuck back home.

My flight to Vegas leaves at 7:00 am on Monday. Yay?

[bncho]

[CAPE]

57 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The primary difference I see is the NW to SE vorticity ribbon dropping southeastward in the flow from Canada is more robust and phases with the energy taking the southern route. The SLP over SC begins to develop at that point.

 

As for why it digs more and climbs the coast then tucks as it intensifies, I think it has to do with the ball of vorticity seen here over SW MN that emanates from the tail end of that ribbon, and THEN ultimately phases in- no other model has had that.

 

Significant step towards the GFS imo-

[EHoffman]

Just now, bncho said:

USA USA USA

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

So.  Is this the Euro nodding to <hold on, I just threw up in my mouth> the GFS?

The gfs came 10% towards the euro and the euro came 40% of the way to the GfS at 18z.  Still a wide gap but not as crazy as before. Usually those compromise % are flipped 

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

but what about the IVT guys

Funny. But the IVT is probably the only way any of us score snow at all. 

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So.  Is this the Euro nodding to <hold on, I just threw up in my mouth> the GFS?

    Seeing models  trend towards the GFS is certainly gonna cause  us to rethink things 

[Paleocene]

Euro trendy on snowfall. Love to see it. 

[bncho]

[DDweatherman]

Let’s face the facts, it was a pretty sizable move by the euro in a couple of days. Energy consolidation upstream and also coastal development a fair bit west. 
 

regarding IVT precip, it was as a result much more impressive with a good UL pass. We’re still a good bit off the GFS, but it undeniably went more towards it than we could have expected if we were weenie casting.

[The Dude]

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

My flight to Vegas leaves at 7:00 am on Monday. Yay?

What happens in Vegas... happens without you?  (We hope!)

[Eskimo Joe]

18z Euro at HR 84 is borderline F O L K S

[winter_warlock]

 GFS giving a big ole middle finger to the other models! 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Significant step towards the GFS imo-

Agreed, if that lobe catches a bit better and the backside amplifies a bit better, I feel like it could cause the neg tilt look the gfs has been advertising.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

[Jake Wx]

ALL HAIL KING GFS 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

My flight to Vegas leaves at 7:00 am on Monday. Yay?

You're in a better spot than I am...at least you don't have to make the call to cancel before any potential event happens.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Euro trendy on snowfall. Love to see it. 

But that’s the ivt you just mocked.