TowsonWeather Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, bncho said: Ji isn't here because he's on FB Live shot of Ji and his followers right now... 2 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Just waiting for the “I lost 36” from 12z” this afternoon at about 5pm. Which is what everybody was expecting it 11 AM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Been said 1,000 times but this is going to be an unbelievable coup or horrendous bust for the entire GFS suite. It could be one the worst fails of its existence. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just waiting for the “I lost 36” from 12z” this afternoon at about 5pm.That was suppose to happen an hour ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Obviously this doesn’t matter but it took a track of the slp to the mouth of the Potomac to get the deform band back across our area. All the runs that have a bomb wind up the storm so tight it’s unusual. A track that close usually has precip type issues all the way to the blue ridge and heavy snow to state college. What is the mechanism behind storms which are able to throw moisture hundreds of miles back west even when weaker and then storms like this that can barely reach a hundred miles with their precipitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, Snowman. said: GEFS snow mean FWIW I've kind of lost respect for ensembles a little bit. Basically they just mirror the regular model runs just more spread out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 You guys keep me young. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, Snowman. said: GEFS snow mean FWIW I mean, this is crazy that it looks like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 If euro shows anything that resembles what GFS just showed, this forum will lose their minds! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I've kind of lost respect for ensembles a little bit. Basically they just mirror the regular model runs just more spread out At this lead time that is pretty normal. Once you get inside 3 days it’s better to lean on operational models. Of course the GFS is making that hard here lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 GEFS really leaning into the tucked solution as we get closer. At hour 84, the OP run that just annihilated most of us was well west of where the offshore cluster is. The low was over the southern Chesapeake. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 22 minutes ago, dailylurker said: He's a visual of what that pink area the gfs printed out would look like in real life. Could you imagine this on the beltway I can imagine it.. in fact I'm praying for it!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 A cave is gonna happen in one direction or another. GFS vs Euro tug of war LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Paleocene said: GEFS really leaning into the tucked solution as we get closed. At hour 84, the OP run that just annihilated most of us was well west (basically onshore) of where the offshore cluster is. Trend is there and it's tightening up, as one would expect. Losing most of the s and e members too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Climate175 said: A cave is gonna happen in one direction or another. GFS vs Euro tug of war LOL. 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It occludes and stacks in place. You can get snow all the way to the low location when that happens. It’s rare obviously. But what isn’t rare about a 3’ snow bomb? ha yep look at that warm air wrapping into it on the 850mb panel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: If euro shows anything that resembles what GFS just showed, this forum will lose their minds! Don't worry. I won't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I've kind of lost respect for ensembles a little bit. Basically they just mirror the regular model runs just more spread out At this range there should be less spread among the members with the mean looking more like the op run, and that's what is happening. Doesn't mean its correct. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 57 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I have been doing this longer than most but I'm old and don't have a great memory, but i can't remember anything this close in. @psuhoffmanhas a much better memory. What say you?. It was off on its own 2-3 days before Jan 25 but not this far. This is odd. But it does suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 Just popping in here...Given that Euro (6z) and CMC and Ukie aren't even close to that, and given just how awful the GFS has been...I can't buy what it's selling. I can see it end up being way wrong and take all the way until Saturday to correct itself, lol I may be wrong but recent history with that model has been highly suspect... We'd have to see everything else take a decent step toward it to even start to believe it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Just popping in here...Given that Euro (6z) and CMC and Ukie aren't even close to that, and given just how awful the GFS has been...I can't buy what it's selling. I can see it end up being way wrong and take all the way until Saturday to correct itself, lol I may be wrong but recent history with that model has been highly suspect... We'd have to see everything else take a decent step toward it to even start to believe it. Hey if we get skunked at least you win "most epic digital snow map in a specific threat tracking thread" award 2026 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 19 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Disastrous! It's coming. Because it's Ji. But also because the GFS is going to fold or be a lot less. It's reached peak. Houston isn't coming. I hope you canceled your ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Hey if we get skunked at least you win "most epic digital snow map in a specific threat tracking thread" award 2026 Wow I hadn't even flipped back that far...DANG, lol I'll take that honor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Prepare for strong emotions in a direction yet to be determined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 How much longer before the air is deflated from the ballon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: What is the mechanism behind storms which are able to throw moisture hundreds of miles back west even when weaker and then storms like this that can barely reach a hundred miles with their precipitation? it's a relatively mature mid-latitude low. vertically stacking a low like that tightens the precip field for a variety of reasons when compared to what we usually see (a coastal surface low with a trailing 500mb low and trough) we usually don't see that occur at our latitude. it's something we'd be more attuned to if we lived in the northeast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 Just now, baltosquid said: Prepare for strong emotions in a direction yet to be determined Not for me. I saw that run during a break in rehearsal and I was immediately like "Nahhhh not happenin'" so the Euro can't disappoint me much, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It occludes and stacks in place. You can get snow all the way to the low location when that happens. It’s rare obviously. But what isn’t rare about a 3’ snow bomb? Oh I know just pointing out how rare it is…also noting it because assuming we don’t get a gfs solution it shows how difficult it would be to win from the coastal here we need the low tracking up the bay basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Just popping in here...Given that Euro (6z) and CMC and Ukie aren't even close to that, and given just how awful the GFS has been...I can't buy what it's selling. I can see it end up being way wrong and take all the way until Saturday to correct itself, lol I may be wrong but recent history with that model has been highly suspect... We'd have to see everything else take a decent step toward it to even start to believe it. We have to sacrifice someone when the GFS fails....your thread so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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