Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Interstate]

all in all... the outcome is the same... just a little less energy.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

At this point, we gotta wondering what the GFS is "seeing" that others aren't.  For the mets in here, there's gotta be some kind of GFS bias built in here...this is two runs in a row of this shit

I'm not smart enough to identify the causes of the H5 differences I've pointed out but I imagine its some initial dance of our NS around the one centered further east in Canada. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

At this point, we gotta wondering what the GFS is "seeing" that others aren't.  For the mets in here, there's gotta be some kind of GFS bias built in here...this is two runs in a row of this shit

I was just thinking that bro... GFS has been eerily very consistent for many runs now.its gotta be picking up on something the others aren't!

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Seeing how most those models shifted east with the coastal ya makes sense but now they back it back west. Look at 12z ggem and icon to 18z 

It always backs west.  Thats how they can sometimes put down crazy totals. They form and slowly rotate west or stall and train. Westminsters biggest snow on record was an IVT. Lancaster area got a shock 13” from one in 2009 I think. They can be fun. Super rare down here. But once it ignites the IVT will slowly rotate west as the trough axis shifts in relation to the coastal low. Fujiwara!  The issue is the axis was starting west of us and now it’s starting east. Ya it could stop. Hope it does. But I’ve seen these things do this up until game time. That 2009 one originally was supposed to be in VA. Then for a day about 48 hours out it looked like 6” here and I got excited and it ended up a Philly thing!  Too many times I’ve seen these trend northeast. It’s a model bias. 
 

@CAPE @Terpeast I think you’ve both noticed this tendency also. Tell me I’m not crazy. Well I am, but not because is this. Plenty of other reasons. 

[bncho]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I'm not smart enough to identify the causes of the H5 differences I've pointed out but I imagine its some initial dance of our NS around the one centered further east in Canada. 

Looks kinda like a double barrel low?

[SnowenOutThere]

[LP08]

Its over the upper midwest at 45 that it diverges.  GFS phases in the Canadian SW to the SS one, every other model leaves them separate.

[Weather Will]

Fringed.  WB 18Z GFS

 

 

[ravensrule]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

I was just thinking that bro... GFS has been eerily very consistent for many runs now.its gotta be picking up on something the others aren't!

Sort of like you when you married your first wife. 

[Fozz]

LOL GFS does the HECS thing again.

[winter_warlock]

 If the storm occurs as the GFS  is showing it would rival the Jan 24th 2016 storm

[Climate175]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

I was just thinking that bro... GFS has been eerily very consistent for many runs now.its gotta be picking up on something the others aren't!

Something is going on…

[brooklynwx99]

this is either going to be the best or the worst model performance i've ever seen (probably worst but hey it's fun to look at)

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Fringed

[Jake Wx]

2 runs in a row of a HECS for us jeez 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Sort of like you when you married your first wife. 

 Exactly! 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is either going to be the best or the worst model performance i've ever seen (probably worst but hey it's fun to look at)

Hey it can always be a teaching tool of the perfect H5 setup! 

[notvirga!]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

this is either going to be the best or the worst model performance i've ever seen (probably worst but hey it's fun to look at)

Not a global but the rgem did this in Jan 2021 within like 36-48 hours. Maybe less. It showed about 50” of snow in Baltimore county. We got 5” 

[Climate175]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is either going to be the best or the worst model performance i've ever seen (probably worst but hey it's fun to look at)

Yeah. Expectations need to be tempered but wouldn’t it be something if we could end winter with a bang. 

[Amped]

It did come east a little. Its halfway between 12z and 6z.

[Duca892]

Absolutely hilarious to see the GFS show this run after run. Cave tonight at 0z will be epic. 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is either going to be the best or the worst model performance i've ever seen (probably worst but hey it's fun to look at)

It's just hard to fathom the other guidance being THAT wrong. And if this is the worst performance it's gonna be a huge indictment on what has happened...I mean the GFS is gonna lose even more credibility after this if it's wrong.

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, Fozz said:

LOL GFS does the HECS thing again.

Nothing gets past you

[Shad]

so last 5 runs of gfs have been rock steady, less than 25 miles jumps run to run with low position at 7pm Sunday evening.........id love to see it verify just to make DT look awful one last time before Spring

[Climate175]

Just now, Duca892 said:

Absolutely hilarious to see the GFS show this run after run. Cave tonight at 0z will be epic. 

We keep saying the next run will be a cave until it isn’t lol. But in seriousness, I’ll take the eye candy for now (whatever happens).

[Maestrobjwa]

To reiterate the original unauthorized title of this thread...AIN'T no way! Haha

[Jake Wx]

2 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Absolutely hilarious to see the GFS show this run after run. Cave tonight at 0z will be epic. 

you say that but you were probaly saying the gfs would cave at 00z last night

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Coastal redeveloping at hour 75. 

Has that same "dual low" position as 12Z.  In the 12Z run, it kind of jumped to the closer one along the coast.  Where does it go this time?  Also, not sure if other models had that dual structure, and not totally sure what's causing it other than something with the phasing.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

At this point, we gotta wondering what the GFS is "seeing" that others aren't.  For the mets in here, there's gotta be some kind of GFS bias built in here...this is two runs in a row of this shit

I’m not a met but imo it’s a relatively delicate and not even that major of an interaction that have a huge impact down the road. Yea we notice it because we’re looking for it but if this interplay between those two SW wasn’t directly causing this dichotomy with a possible HECS we would never notice!   If we simplify it it’s putting more energy into the lead wave in a two wave interaction and it’s a delicate balance where just enough tips the scale and you get a cascading effect later.
 

That said it’s obviously still likely the GFS is the wrong one. However it does handle NS features a bit better. When it does rarely beat the euro it’s in situations like this. But I can’t remember a single example when it was totally all alone like this at this range and won.  That said some stuff did make mini step towards it so I guess anything’s possible. But I wouldn’t bet anything I care about on it. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Shad said:

so last 5 runs of gfs have been rock steady, less than 25 miles jumps run to run with low position at 7pm Sunday evening.........id love to see it verify just to make DT look awful one last time before Spring

Alot of the time DT makes himself look awful, he doesn't need the GFS's help