Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[TowsonWeather]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

Ji isn't here because he's on FB

Live shot of Ji and his followers right now...

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Just waiting for the “I lost 36” from 12z” this afternoon at about 5pm.

Which is what everybody was expecting it 11 AM lol

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Been said 1,000 times but this is going to be an unbelievable coup or horrendous bust for the entire GFS suite.

It could be one the worst fails of its existence.  

[Ji]

Just waiting for the “I lost 36” from 12z” this afternoon at about 5pm.

That was suppose to happen an hour ago

[SnowenOutThere]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Obviously this doesn’t matter but it took a track of the slp to the mouth of the Potomac to get the deform band back across our area. All the runs that have a bomb wind up the storm so tight it’s unusual. A track that close usually has precip type issues all the way to the blue ridge and heavy snow to state college. 

What is the mechanism behind storms which are able to throw moisture hundreds of miles back west even when weaker and then storms like this that can barely reach a hundred miles with their precipitation?

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

GEFS snow mean FWIW 

I've kind of lost respect for ensembles a little bit. Basically they just mirror the regular model runs just more spread out 

[Zeus]

You guys keep me young.

[LeesburgWx]

8 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

GEFS snow mean FWIW 

I mean, this is crazy that it looks like this

[winter_warlock]

If euro shows anything that resembles what GFS just showed, this forum will lose their minds!

[SnowGolfBro]

3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I've kind of lost respect for ensembles a little bit. Basically they just mirror the regular model runs just more spread out 

At this lead time that is pretty normal. Once you get inside 3 days it’s better to lean on operational models. Of course the GFS is making that hard here lol

[Paleocene]

GEFS really leaning into the tucked solution as we get closer.

At hour 84, the OP run that just annihilated most of us was well west of where the offshore cluster is. The low was over the southern Chesapeake.

[winter_warlock]

22 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

He's a visual of what that pink area the gfs printed out would look like in real life. Could you imagine this on the beltway 

I can imagine it.. in fact I'm praying for it!! 

[Climate175]

A cave is gonna happen in one direction or another. GFS vs Euro tug of war LOL.

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Paleocene said:

GEFS really leaning into the tucked solution as we get closed.

At hour 84, the OP run that just annihilated most of us was well west (basically onshore) of where the offshore cluster is.

Trend is there and it's tightening up, as one would expect. Losing most of the s and e members too

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Climate175 said:

A cave is gonna happen in one direction or another. GFS vs Euro tug of war LOL.

[paulythegun]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It occludes and stacks in place. You can get snow all the way to the low location when that happens. It’s rare obviously. But what isn’t rare about a 3’ snow bomb?

ha yep look at that warm air wrapping into it on the 850mb panel

 

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

If euro shows anything that resembles what GFS just showed, this forum will lose their minds!

Don't worry. I won't 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I've kind of lost respect for ensembles a little bit. Basically they just mirror the regular model runs just more spread out 

At this range there should be less spread among the members with the mean looking more like the op run, and that's what is happening. Doesn't mean its correct.

[psuhoffman]

57 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I have been doing this longer than most but I'm old and don't have a great memory, but i can't remember anything this close in. @psuhoffmanhas a much better memory. What say you?. 

It was off on its own 2-3 days before Jan 25 but not this far. This is odd. But it does suck. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just popping in here...Given that Euro (6z) and CMC and Ukie aren't even close to that, and given just how awful the GFS has been...I can't buy what it's selling. I can see it end up being way wrong and take all the way until Saturday to correct itself, lol I may be wrong but recent history with that model has been highly suspect...

We'd have to see everything else take a decent step toward it to even start to believe it.

[Paleocene]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Just popping in here...Given that Euro (6z) and CMC and Ukie aren't even close to that, and given just how awful the GFS has been...I can't buy what it's selling. I can see it end up being way wrong and take all the way until Saturday to correct itself, lol I may be wrong but recent history with that model has been highly suspect...

We'd have to see everything else take a decent step toward it to even start to believe it.

Hey if we get skunked at least you win "most epic digital snow map in a specific threat tracking thread" award 2026

[ravensrule]

19 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Disastrous!  It's coming.  Because it's Ji.  But also because the GFS is going to fold or be a lot less.  It's reached peak.

Houston isn't coming. I hope you canceled your ticket. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Hey if we get skunked at least you win "most epic digital snow map in a specific threat tracking thread" award 2026

Wow I hadn't even flipped back that far...DANG, lol I'll take that honor 

[baltosquid]

Prepare for strong emotions in a direction yet to be determined

[LeesburgWx]

How much longer before the air is deflated from the ballon?

[paulythegun]

16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What is the mechanism behind storms which are able to throw moisture hundreds of miles back west even when weaker and then storms like this that can barely reach a hundred miles with their precipitation?

it's a relatively mature mid-latitude low. vertically stacking a low like that tightens the precip field for a variety of reasons when compared to what we usually see (a coastal surface low with a trailing 500mb low and trough) we usually don't see that occur at our latitude. it's something we'd be more attuned to if we lived in the northeast though. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Prepare for strong emotions in a direction yet to be determined

Not for me. I saw that run during a break in rehearsal and I was immediately like "Nahhhh not happenin'" so the Euro can't disappoint me much, lol

[Climate175]

[psuhoffman]

39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It occludes and stacks in place. You can get snow all the way to the low location when that happens. It’s rare obviously. But what isn’t rare about a 3’ snow bomb?

Oh I know just pointing out how rare it is…also noting it because assuming we don’t get a gfs solution it shows how difficult it would be to win from the coastal here we need the low tracking up the bay basically. 

[Weather Will]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just popping in here...Given that Euro (6z) and CMC and Ukie aren't even close to that, and given just how awful the GFS has been...I can't buy what it's selling. I can see it end up being way wrong and take all the way until Saturday to correct itself, lol I may be wrong but recent history with that model has been highly suspect...

We'd have to see everything else take a decent step toward it to even start to believe it.

We have to sacrifice someone when the GFS fails....your thread so....