Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[baltosquid]

Actually maybe the UKMET is not so bad. It’s no GFS though. Don’t think temps are gonna be friendly either.

[stormtracker]

Ok, the CMC and UKmet lends credence to what we all know:  GFS is in la la land

[yoda]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

Pass

5 hours until Ji tells us 18z GFS lost 30 inches

[dailylurker]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah that 0z Monday sounding would be like near whiteout with high ratio parachutes. Crazy stuff. 

If you want to know. Go to banter and read my description of a LES event. That's here on Monday lol

[weathercoins]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

You rang .

I'll be in downtown TP tonight because my kids have music lessons there, maybe I'll stop by! 

House of Musical Traditions…?

TP Bev Co is underrated - we live half a mile down the road 

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

You rang .

I'll be in downtown TP tonight because my kids have music lessons there, maybe I'll stop by! 

Love to meet you. Seriously. Stop in

[baltosquid]

Yeah UKMET wasn’t as flat as 00z but it is still garbage and nothing like the GFS unfortunately. Ptype problems

[Ji]

Ok, the CMC and UKmet lends credence to what we all know:  GFS is in la la land

CMC and uk are jv models though

[arlwx12]

LWX still up in the air at 1029...

(snip)

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracking nearby brings a slight winter
storm threat to the forecast area this weekend, followed by colder
than normal temperatures early next week.

A high energy but low predictability pattern looms for late this
weekend. The pattern is forecast to be very amplified but in flux as
a deep upper-level low digs out of the Gulf of Alaska inducing a
downstream ridge-building event over the western U.S. This pattern
amplification in the vicinity of western North America comes with
low predictability due to data sparse regions over the North
Pacific. Meanwhile, a pair of downstream upper lows interact/merge
over Maritime Canada, with inherent low predictability with two
cutoff lows interacting.

If the upstream ridge-building event takes place a bit further west
near 120 W longitude on Saturday, downstream trough amplification
would be favorable for phasing over the mid MS Valley into the OH/TN
Valleys Saturday night. A subsequent low track hugging the coast
would become more likely in this scenario, aided by downstream
blocking and a potential source of cold air given the upper lows
over Maritime Canada and surface high pressure attempting to ridge
into northern New England.

There is an appearance of an inverted trough signature in a subset
of model guidance over the last couple cycles, given interaction
between a more amplified northern stream wave and a bit more distant
offshore southern stream low. This could factor into precipitation
amounts and placement.

The 00Z ensemble suites (European, GFS, Canadian, Euro AIFS) all now
have at least some snow across the area Sunday into Sunday night.
This continues the trend toward higher QPF/snow amounts in the last
3-4 model cycles. Still, the spread remains quite large with many
ensemble members indicating little to no snow, while others do show
significantly higher amounts.

There are several variables at play here that likely won`t be
resolved with much more clarity for another day or two. This will
determine the difference between a couple of strung out waves
passing through with little fanfare, a modestly impactful period of
snow showers, and a more significant wintry precip event.

Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor
especially for lower elevations if precip occurs during the day.
Cold air will also filtering into the region as the storm in
question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which
offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type.

Regardless of exactly how the details of the Sunday-Monday system
play out, another shot of below normal temperatures is favored for
early next week. Currently, high temperatures in the 40s (30s in the
mountains) with lows in the 20s (teens in the mountains) are
forecast through Tuesday night, with some midweek moderation
after.

(snip)

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Yeah UKMET wasn’t as flat as 00z but it is still garbage and nothing like the GFS unfortunately. Ptype problems

translates to 0.3" QPF (Pre-IVT) in DC compared to 0" at 12z. I suppose that doesn't mean nothing, but yeah as you said the weak sauce precip translates to a weak sauce column.

[87storms]

This is gonna be a good system to gauge whether the gfs is on some bs or onto something.

[Interstate]

16 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

The CMC and GFS aren't that different at 500 mb at 90 hours. 

The biggest thing is the CMC is positivity tilted and the GFS is negativity tilt... and that makes all the difference 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, weathercoins said:

House of Musical Traditions…?

TP Bev Co is underrated - we live half a mile down the road 

Yes, the school of musical traditions which is now it's own building.  My kids play bluegrass , and I do too!  Bevco is great, the food is always on point.

And the UK shifted a lot from its 00z run, looks better at 500mb. 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Yeah UKMET wasn’t as flat as 00z but it is still garbage and nothing like the GFS unfortunately. Ptype problems

10% better. If we get 10 more shifts of 10% better, it'll be the GFS!

[baltosquid]

GEFS looks good. Just following its weenie leader.

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, 87storms said:

This is gonna be a good system to gauge whether the gfs is on some bs or onto something.

You haven't been here for the past couple months to see already?

[Interstate]

The GFS is showing what we usually see at hour 384 in November.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Yeah UKMET wasn’t as flat as 00z but it is still garbage and nothing like the GFS unfortunately. Ptype problems

Could be worse 

 

[LeesburgWx]

2 minutes ago, arlwx12 said:

LWX still up in the air at 1029...

(snip)

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracking nearby brings a slight winter
storm threat to the forecast area this weekend, followed by colder
than normal temperatures early next week.

A high energy but low predictability pattern looms for late this
weekend. The pattern is forecast to be very amplified but in flux as
a deep upper-level low digs out of the Gulf of Alaska inducing a
downstream ridge-building event over the western U.S. This pattern
amplification in the vicinity of western North America comes with
low predictability due to data sparse regions over the North
Pacific. Meanwhile, a pair of downstream upper lows interact/merge
over Maritime Canada, with inherent low predictability with two
cutoff lows interacting.

If the upstream ridge-building event takes place a bit further west
near 120 W longitude on Saturday, downstream trough amplification
would be favorable for phasing over the mid MS Valley into the OH/TN
Valleys Saturday night. A subsequent low track hugging the coast
would become more likely in this scenario, aided by downstream
blocking and a potential source of cold air given the upper lows
over Maritime Canada and surface high pressure attempting to ridge
into northern New England.

There is an appearance of an inverted trough signature in a subset
of model guidance over the last couple cycles, given interaction
between a more amplified northern stream wave and a bit more distant
offshore southern stream low. This could factor into precipitation
amounts and placement.

The 00Z ensemble suites (European, GFS, Canadian, Euro AIFS) all now
have at least some snow across the area Sunday into Sunday night.
This continues the trend toward higher QPF/snow amounts in the last
3-4 model cycles. Still, the spread remains quite large with many
ensemble members indicating little to no snow, while others do show
significantly higher amounts.

There are several variables at play here that likely won`t be
resolved with much more clarity for another day or two. This will
determine the difference between a couple of strung out waves
passing through with little fanfare, a modestly impactful period of
snow showers, and a more significant wintry precip event.

Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor
especially for lower elevations if precip occurs during the day.
Cold air will also filtering into the region as the storm in
question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which
offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type.

Regardless of exactly how the details of the Sunday-Monday system
play out, another shot of below normal temperatures is favored for
early next week. Currently, high temperatures in the 40s (30s in the
mountains) with lows in the 20s (teens in the mountains) are
forecast through Tuesday night, with some midweek moderation
after.

(snip)

There are several variables at play here that likely won`t be
resolved with much more clarity for another day or two.

So when snow starts falling, we will know

[mikeg0305]

This is gonna be a good system to gauge whether the gfs is on some bs or onto something.

Because the other ten misses this winter weren’t enough?

[stormtracker]

Well, the mood killer will be along in an hour to bring this place into the sunken.  But what if...if showed what the GFS is showing.  This server would melt down.

[TowsonWeather]

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Well, the mood killer will be along in an hour to bring this place into the sunken.  But what if...if showed what the GFS is showing.  This server would melt down.

What is the biggest move the euro has made in recent memory where it shifted to a huge solution for us instead of the usual opposite?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well, the mood killer will be along in an hour to bring this place into the sunken.  But what if...if showed what the GFS is showing.  This server would melt down.

Ya that would be it this place would implode. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

What is the biggest move the euro has made in recent memory where it shifted to a huge solution for us instead of the usual opposite?

I don't think it ever has tbh

[baltosquid]

GEFS showing a mean of 6-10 inches 10:1 less than 100 hours out would turn into quite the fail lol.

[BristowWx]

35 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Dude.  it would be hard to believe you and I drunk didn't draw that snow map.  no f-ing way that happens.  or maybe....

[WxUSAF]

Assuming this goes to IVT only, it’s possible someone can pull 6”ish out of this. But a small area. GGEM has a bullseye of that magnitude and looks like Ukie also. 

[TowsonWeather]

Just now, baltosquid said:

GEFS showing a mean of 6-10 inches 10:1 less than 100 hours out would turn into quite the fail lol.

I mean...forget 100 hours, this thing is 2.5 days away. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I don't think it ever has tbh

I wouldn’t say huge but last years 7” storm I got here it kept showing 1-3” even like 36hrs before the event