SnowenOutThere Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Here is the snowfall map as the bulk of the precip is over. Interestingly, it is worse than 18z. I personally don't really care because I liked the H5 and surface low interaction more. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 105 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Still some room for improvement on the H5 to make it even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Here is the snowfall map as the bulk of the precip is over. Interestingly, it is worse than 18z. I personally don't really care because I liked the H5 and surface low interaction more. I think the primary low stuff was slightly worse due to the lower heights and it was slightly less amped (?), but overall this is a good step 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 It held. Microscopic differences compared to 18z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 My thinking is, that confluence from the exiting low is gonna give us fits pretty much right until the last 24 hours. So as the GFS shows, maybe it's better to just hope the trough just deepens more! That made this run work regardless of the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 111 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Amped said: It held. Microscopic differences compared to 18z. Who needs a microscope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 It's starting to feel like SOMEBODY on the East coast is gonna get nailed by this...Personally, calendar silliness aside, I do wonder whether a system dependent on timing like this--that is, too far east we miss and it nails NYC or NE--really favors us or not. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, bncho said: I think the primary low stuff was slightly worse due to the lower heights and it was slightly less amped (?), but overall this is a good step Yeah. I suppose there are two maxes to this setup. First is more 18z GFS where we really amp up the initial low and its thump while getting some extra snow from the H5 and coastal interaction. Second would be what the 0z moved towards where the thump is a bit worse but coastal is further west. In between the two maxes you have the relative low point, but if our low point is 5-8 inches I'm okay with that. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 East coast blizzard! (WB 0Z GFS 1am Sunday) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: It's starting to feel like SOMEBODY on the East coast is gonna get nailed by this...Personally, calendar silliness aside, I do wonder whether a system dependent on timing like this--that is, too far east we miss and it nails NYC or NE--really favors us or not. Since it's your thread you are forced to be delusionally optimistic. So far your thread is working... so keep it up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 One thing holding down accumulation is the surface temps suck during the day on Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: It's starting to feel like SOMEBODY on the East coast is gonna get nailed by this...Personally, calendar silliness aside, I do wonder whether a system dependent on timing like this--that is, too far east we miss and it nails NYC or NE--really favors us or not. No. We need the Euro and another day. The issue with a setup like this is that if everything shifts 100 miles east its game over, we are relying on a coastal low bombing out at the perfect time thanks to specific placement of upper level features. This isn't a setup I'd bank on happening till even inside 36 hours. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I think if the upper level is like gfs the upside is higher for more of the area.. But it is the gfs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's starting to feel like SOMEBODY on the East coast is gonna get nailed by this...Personally, calendar silliness aside, I do wonder whether a system dependent on timing like this--that is, too far east we miss and it nails NYC or NE--really favors us or not. Jesus talk about a chase opportunity in our backyard. Inland a bit in southern DE verbatim? Om, yessir. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, katabatic said: Jesus talk about a chase opportunity in our backyard. Inland a bit in southern DE verbatim? Om, yessir. come on down and witness the existential meltdown of half the locals. while the other half throw booze heavy blizzard parties. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 The CMC is going to be nothing like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 CMC is going to be different than its 12z run. So far can't make anything declarative but I think itll be somewhat worse with where the surface low is created, amplified, and captured. No idea if it'll be bad or still work out thanks to a H5 pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 105 I’m just to this one at 105 and that’s 15 hours at 0.5-.75” per hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 CMC will be fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 CMC going to be fine, at the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 @84 the CMC is progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: CMC is going to be different than its 12z run. So far can't make anything declarative but I think itll be somewhat worse with where the surface low is created, amplified, and captured. No idea if it'll be bad or still work out thanks to a H5 pass. Its still in the GFS camp but nowhere near as good. Might still eek out a coastal capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Interstate said: @84 the CMC is progressive Go to bed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 All these years and half of you still can’t read a weather model I see… ggem is more in the gfs camp than the euro camp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, TSSN+ said: CMC will be fine That don't look bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, TSSN+ said: CMC will be fine We said it at the same time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 H5 was wonky but less confluence helped it gain latitude on the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Its still in the GFS camp but nowhere near as good. Might still eek out a coastal capture Looks pretty good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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