Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[SnowenOutThere]

Here is the snowfall map as the bulk of the precip is over.

Interestingly, it is worse than 18z. I personally don't really care because I liked the H5 and surface low interaction more.

[Weather Will]

105

[Interstate]

Still some room for improvement on the H5 to make it even better

[bncho]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Here is the snowfall map as the bulk of the precip is over.

Interestingly, it is worse than 18z. I personally don't really care because I liked the H5 and surface low interaction more.

I think the primary low stuff was slightly worse due to the lower heights and it was slightly less amped (?), but overall this is a good step

[Amped]

It held. Microscopic differences compared to 18z. 

[baltosquid]

My thinking is, that confluence from the exiting low is gonna give us fits pretty much right until the last 24 hours. So as the GFS shows, maybe it's better to just hope the trough just deepens more! That made this run work regardless of the confluence.

[Weather Will]

111

[ravensrule]

Just now, Amped said:

It held. Microscopic differences compared to 18z. 

Who needs a microscope. 

[Maestrobjwa]

It's starting to feel like SOMEBODY on the East coast is gonna get nailed by this...Personally, calendar silliness aside, I do wonder whether a system dependent on timing like this--that is, too far east we miss and it nails NYC or NE--really favors us or not.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, bncho said:

I think the primary low stuff was slightly worse due to the lower heights and it was slightly less amped (?), but overall this is a good step

Yeah. I suppose there are two maxes to this setup. First is more 18z GFS where we really amp up the initial low and its thump while getting some extra snow from the H5 and coastal interaction. Second would be what the 0z moved towards where the thump is a bit worse but coastal is further west. In between the two maxes you have the relative low point, but if our low point is 5-8 inches I'm okay with that.

[Weather Will]

East coast blizzard! (WB 0Z GFS 1am Sunday)

[bncho]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

It's starting to feel like SOMEBODY on the East coast is gonna get nailed by this...Personally, calendar silliness aside, I do wonder whether a system dependent on timing like this--that is, too far east we miss and it nails NYC or NE--really favors us or not.

Since it's your thread you are forced to be delusionally optimistic. So far your thread is working... so keep it up

[rjvanals]

One thing holding down accumulation is the surface temps suck during the day on Sunday 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

It's starting to feel like SOMEBODY on the East coast is gonna get nailed by this...Personally, calendar silliness aside, I do wonder whether a system dependent on timing like this--that is, too far east we miss and it nails NYC or NE--really favors us or not.

No. We need the Euro and another day. The issue with a setup like this is that if everything shifts 100 miles east its game over, we are relying on a coastal low bombing out at the perfect time thanks to specific placement of upper level features. This isn't a setup I'd bank on happening till even inside 36 hours.

[midatlanticweather]

I think if the upper level is like gfs the upside is higher for more of the area.. But it is the gfs 

[katabatic]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's starting to feel like SOMEBODY on the East coast is gonna get nailed by this...Personally, calendar silliness aside, I do wonder whether a system dependent on timing like this--that is, too far east we miss and it nails NYC or NE--really favors us or not.

Jesus talk about a chase opportunity in our backyard. Inland a bit in southern DE verbatim? Om, yessir. 

[AlexD1990]

Just now, katabatic said:

Jesus talk about a chase opportunity in our backyard. Inland a bit in southern DE verbatim? Om, yessir. 

come on down and witness the existential meltdown of half the locals. while the other half throw booze heavy blizzard parties.

[Interstate]

The CMC is going to be nothing like the GFS

[SnowenOutThere]

CMC is going to be different than its 12z run. So far can't make anything declarative but I think itll be somewhat worse with where the surface low is created, amplified, and captured. No idea if it'll be bad or still work out thanks to a H5 pass.

[WEATHER53]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

105

I’m just to this one at 105 and that’s 15 hours at 0.5-.75” per hour 

[TSSN+]

CMC will be fine 

 

[Solution Man]

CMC going to be fine, at the party 

[Interstate]

@84 the CMC is progressive 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

CMC is going to be different than its 12z run. So far can't make anything declarative but I think itll be somewhat worse with where the surface low is created, amplified, and captured. No idea if it'll be bad or still work out thanks to a H5 pass.

Its still in the GFS camp but nowhere near as good. Might still eek out a coastal capture

[TSSN+]

Just now, Interstate said:

@84 the CMC is progressive 

Go to bed 

[DDweatherman]

All these years and half of you still can’t read a weather model I see… ggem is more in the gfs camp than the euro camp. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

CMC will be fine 

 

That don't look bad at all. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

CMC will be fine 

 

We said it at the same time 

[LP08]

H5 was wonky but less confluence helped it gain latitude on the cmc

[TSSN+]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Its still in the GFS camp but nowhere near as good. Might still eek out a coastal capture

Looks pretty good to me