“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[bristolri_wx]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I mean what else would it be? They torched the budget and fired half the staff. We don’t have to pretend it’s something else.

I was trying to avoid going there, but, it's definitely a factor, but not the only factor.  I'm trying not to derail the thread...

[TheBudMan]

where is @Masswx ?   were his computer prividges taken ??? 

 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

where is @Masswx ?   were his computer prividges taken ??? 

 

He’s lost and confused. He doesn’t know which side of Wey he leaves at anymore.

[Brewbeer]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They’ve never had it better , more money in 401k , country safe , no more pronouns, we could go on and on .

 

Hot take

[NeonPeon]

Can we please keep the politics out of the snow, now it's all brown and gross.

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They’ve never had it better , more money in 401k , country safe we could go on and on .

Heavy heavy snow 

 

We could have both a well managed NOAA/NWS and the other things you mentioned.  There's pages and pages of why modeling is shit for east coast snow storms (which falls under NOAA), but there haven't nearly been the amount of resources and coordination done to help improve that.  There's definitely efficiencies to be had, but I don't think there's been a lot of well planned resource consolidation.  It's been more machete like...

[ScituateMA]

So how about that snow storm? 

These winds look insane. Just praising the weather gods that this is not a full moon tide. 

[cut]

Well been grinding on Super Bowl and Olympics so I'd love nothing better than to leave Sunday evening and go home - crack a few dozen cold ones and watch the powder pile and drift!!  Bring it!!!!

[JACKASS]

@dendriteSorry!

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, wxsniss said:

What an unmitigated, lights-out, absolute coup for the GFS / AI-GFS.

I can't remember another case where the stakes were this big, the camps were initially so stubbornly dissimilar, the GFS was on its own... and the GFS schooled everyone.

Assuming the big hit verifies, but I have zero doubt it will.

19z NBM (48h ending 7pm Monday):

GFS did roundly better - so far - no argument.  We'll see how it finally verifies before rendering the final comparison. 

Having said that, in fairness, the other models have come or are coming around, in time.   Let's not get crazy.   It's day 3/4 and we have this going on.  It's not like these other guidance dawned on the day and waited until that 7 am run to collapse in favor of an outlier.  

[Masswx]

9 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

where is @Masswx ?   were his computer prividges taken ??? 

 

Sitting back and staring at the gfs with wide eyes

[Masswx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

He’s lost and confused. He doesn’t know which side of Wey he leaves at anymore.

I know damn well where I live 

[dendrite]

Ukie north finally

[Typhoon Tip]

There it is... up under LI    

      boom

[tiger_deF]

I already miss the frigid airmass we had for the late Jan snowstorm. One of the few times I've seen pre-storm flurries seriously accumulate. Get a low pressure system reeled to the west a little from what models are showing for this storm with that airmass in place and you immediately have a top 5 blockbuster. Plenty of cold air with this one but still solidly 10+ degrees warmer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

west trend continues

Seems to be tightening the gradient in SNH...didn't go much further N...

[ariof]

26 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Unfortunately there's been a general downward trend in the quality of AFD's.  I think it's a combination of a lot of younger talent at BOX and organizational changes from above.  In the past when a warning level storm was brewing, AFD's would come out more often as data rolled in.  Now they only follow the schedule of 3 or 4 per day and sometimes the changes are very minor.  It's sad, IMO, they used to be great reads in most cases, and very educational.

I have a friend who works in a different NWS office and their AFDs are great. It would be quite interesting to train an LLM on the past 25 years of AFDs (I think that's as far back as the dataset goes) and show differences between offices, etc. 

I also think that offices should put out weekly-or-more-often podcasts called "The ____ Area Forecast Discussion" which is basically a 10 to 20 minute discussion of that week's upcoming weather, with the added benefit of getting in a bunch of people's podcast feeds so you could push emergency announcements out that way as needed for higher-impact scenarios. But that kind of useful thing ain't gonna happen with this administration axing everything they can (although apparently so many people took retirement, etc that NWS is hiring again; apparently the Texas floods got people's attention).

[Typhoon Tip]

Late last night I recall musing a 50/50 chance that we were about to see the full Monty solution.  I thought it might come per the 00z ... 

In principle, it seems the last 18 hours in aggregate were really taking the clothes off.   

This run of the NAM/GFS seem to have finally pulled the trigger on availing of that unused spatial aspect in the modeled trough geometry - there's been NW adjustment room for this all along.   

[weathafella]

Well I pulled the trigger.  Will be arriving 1:09AM tomorrow overnight.   Returning to RSW Tuesday with a 6:45 PM departure which will likely be delayed.  I’m in no way missing this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems to be tightening the gradient in SNH...didn't go much further N...

I bet there will be a hellacious band near the border there...

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems to be tightening the gradient in SNH...didn't go much further than N...

Jesus PVD NAM new GFS not up LWM for you still snowing hard for you 

[40/70 Benchmark]

That gradient in s NH is insane...

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ukie north finally

Getting pretty consistent across guidance with that closed off H5 nuke to the south…the only question left is exactly how close it tracks

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well I pulled the trigger.  Will be arriving 1:09AM tomorrow overnight.   Returning to RSW Tuesday with a 6:45 PM departure which will likely be delayed.  I’m in no way missing this.

Old man winter!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

That S NH gradient reminds me of Jan 7, 1996.

[Baroclinic Zone]

This is why we wait until the 72-84hr timeframe. 
Welcome to the jungle baby.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That S NH gradient reminds me of Jan 7, 1996.

This just the blizzard...12z (right) 18z (left)

[Kitz Craver]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ukie north finally

Tried to sober up and finally fell off the wagon?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Shot this is January 1996 with more wind.

[Prismshine Productions]

This just the blizzard...12z (right) 18z (left)

Shot me up from 2 to 5 in one go... Couple more ticks NW warnings will be posted all the way up to me

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk