“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

So a close second, Until 18z.  lol

Pretty much. Riding the roller coaster baby!!! I need help.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

19 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Just remember a day or two the sharp cutoff was over the Cape???  just saying?

Isn’t that still the case though?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, Johnno said:

We’re all snake bitten from Jan 15 and Jan 22 out here 

And a couple more too but Jan 15 takes the prize. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Asked this question might have been buried. Since the GFS led the way and all modeling is trending towards it, should we go all in on its out put going forward with this particular storm?

Have to ride the hot hand, the Korean, but yeah, you know there’s some sort of compromise coming in the end.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is coming in at a higher angle of attack....that's good for us I think...it won't get cutoff down east of delmarva and miss us like previous runs. 

Waiting for the NAM qpf bomb then we know it's on like donkey Kong 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Waiting for the NAM qpf bomb then we know it's on like donkey Kong 

A bit further north so far

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And a couple more too but Jan 15 takes the prize. 

For us out here, we need this thing to capture in southern Jersey, not the mouth of the chesapeake like it seems the Nam is doing

[CoastalWx]

NAM will LBSW. Not sure how far north it gets. Might be better.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Have to ride the hot hand, the Korean, but yeah, you know there’s some sort of compromise coming in the end.

Man you have been all over the place lol. Hopefully its a region wide foot 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM will LBSW. Not sure how far north it gets. Might be better.

Meh

[ineedsnow]

NAM says nope 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

For us out here, we need this thing to capture in southern Jersey, not the mouth of the chesapeake like it seems the Nam is doing

Yes but the trend is pretty clear, load blown over DC ain’t happening. The later, the better, and I think it keeps ticking NE. Now, that doesn’t mean hecs here but better than just a glancing blow.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM will LBSW. Not sure how far north it gets. Might be better.

Def better than 06z and 00z....but not like the globals. It will prob be pretty ujnderwhelming run for most of us but its the NAM in clown range and it got better. 

[ineedsnow]

Gets pulled east.. that northern screwed this up or else it would have been.a huge hit

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM says nope 

It's a major nod to gfs though with the Delmarva getting smoked like gfs had yesterday .. still plenty of time for NAM to trend NE .. thats a tucked in LBSW bomb though

[CoastalWx]

Nam much better and not as LBSW with trailing s/w helping.

[ineedsnow]

Actually ends up getting eastern areas pretty good at 78 but that was close to being much much better

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def better than 06z and 00z....but not like the globals. It will prob be pretty ujnderwhelming run for most of us but its the NAM in clown range and it got better. 

Agree. Just want to see continual progress. Don't need to see anything backsliding at this point. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

15-35" from Monmouth county to Ocean City

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def better than 06z and 00z....but not like the globals. It will prob be pretty ujnderwhelming run for most of us but its the NAM in clown range and it got better. 

i like seeing the shift with that backside vort phasing in more

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The old SREFS had a bunch of ETA members in there so the synoptics were decent (even the old RSM members weren't bad synoptically either)....but now it's all convective models. 

I remember towards the end of anyone using it anymore, I think we use to pull the weenie ARW members out of the SREF plumes and just go with the NBM.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM says nope 

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam much better and not as LBSW with trailing s/w helping.

Hmmmm

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes but the trend is pretty clear, load blown over DC ain’t happening. The later, the better, and I think it keeps ticking NE. Now, that doesn’t mean hecs here but better than just a glancing blow.

I'm hoping this is either a shut everything down type storm or nothing, important appointments on Monday...so annoying nuisance stuff just makes traveling dangerous

[CoastalWx]

At least it jacked Delaware and not the VA Capes.

[Kitz Craver]

Beer. Looks like a positive trend to me.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

SREF me, baby....just lather me up with that

I thought there was a 50/50 shot of that "give up and finally do it" look by the other models per the 00z's last night. 

That didn't happen... We did, however, continue pulling ticks off. That keeps the trend alive, but it also kind of smacks like a capitulation move may still be in the works. On to the 06z, still no fuller commitment, but yet more biting NW ticks.   

The only source that did not bite NW for ~41.8 miles of inflamed social media significance overnight was the 06Z Euro AI.  Which actually tried to sneak a SE adjusting bum pump while no one was looking ( good luck getting that past this group).  Until I know exactly "how" the machinery of these AI models work to produce their output, I shall remain dubious, either way.  Having said that, the 06Z GFS AI finally brought the deep QPF as far NW as about me. I'm not necessarily taking that verbatim either.  

I don't know... there's still room to bodily bring this NW.   At a larger synoptic consideration, the ridging component of this local time scale +PNA ( nested inside a longer termed -PNA as it is... I showed this yesterday), is actually anchored along a climo axis that has pummeled SNE to the point of punching breathing holes through snow in lore.  In this case and so far, the amplitude has been nesting into the trough consummately biased on the eastern flank. That's possible... Basically, anywhere within with the trough offers a non-linear constructive interference..  It seems the GFS is the model system that is using that wiggle room - whether that actually occurs, notwithstanding.   So... we might get that capitulation move.  We might not.  It may tick or two a couple more cycles and then all models have converged on a lock down testicle tickler for everyone but SE zones.  Or it may not fully capitulate, but be enough so that we take a foot of reasonable return on investment.   All these are still on the table, even at this range.  

There are two structural aspects I spent some time observing about the model recency, all sources.  

One,  ...the lead space short-wave-ridging that rolls out ahead of amplifying troughs, is either erroneously under constructing in this, or, it is just going to be anomalously challenged.  I kind of lean on the latter, because all guidance appear to have middling rollout ridge responses to this.  That's an important aspect for getting this thing NW.  Without it or a weaker version etc... we see this tendency to drift/bias E shortly after the RI phase of cyclogen captures the U/A via height falls and collocates.  More rollout ridge, makes that move more NW or even stall so that said cyclogen can force it all more tucked.  This doesn't end the story though. It's just that we'd like to see more rollout ridging.   This could end up NW without out thru idiosyncrasy.  

Two, these models don't have very good 300 mb entrance fan jet situated NW of the mid troposphere height falls.  I didn't not say 0.  Is said 'ungood'.  It's there is some of them, but could be better.  It is a pretty important structural aspect that contributes to expanding precipitation NW of these lows.  The NAM/Canadian and the Euro partially, all three have more of it... Curiously, the GFS has almost none.  That's odd. Below is the GFS left, CMC right

 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

Hmmmm

I was going to say it whacks the cape so not sure what some saw..........lol

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

At least it jacked Delaware and not the VA Capes.

Ticking northeast...

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dryslot said:

I was going to say it whacks the cape so not sure what some saw..........lol

They saw beer

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I was going to say it whacks the cape so not sure what some saw..........lol

Give @ineedsnowa break, he hasn't slept since October.