“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Cyclone-68]

How strong will the winds be for eastern areas? Any coastal flooding concerns?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I wasn't clear....I meant pressure gradient, 65mbs!

Oh, sure...GFS had 71mb yesterday.

[The 4 Seasons]

Lets see if we can even keep any pack before this one comes around here

Snow depth at 7AM yesterday

BDL-8

TF Green-5

Sikorsky-3

ISP-3

JFK-1

NYC/LGA/EWR-0

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah…follow it right down here

I get it goes. It blows! Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEFS and EPS aren't that different around here.....it's more NJ

[radarman]

Feel like it's probably deformation or bust out this way, and reggie was promising.  But hey maybe it'll be an sref coup.

[MuddyWx]

Can’t forget a lot of people (se areas included) cancelled this at d5 

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jan 2022 was to me what Jan 15 was to you.

And January 15 still gave WOR 6 to 12. Loved it even though it was a LITTLE less that the predictioned 24 to 36.

[EastonSN+]

37 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Probably not done trending either.. we take!

I didn't see the 0z. Was 6z west?

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, sure...GFS had 71mb yesterday.

I'm sure the SREF-ARW would work for you, only about a 30 burger in Methuen to Beverly

[40/70 Benchmark]

06z EURO AI ENS ticked better from 00z, despite the slight regression on the OP.

[codfishsnowman]

26 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Man what's wrong with you. Can't you be a bit more positive or excited. A day and a half ago this wasn't even happening. Be happy with what you're going to get.

I totally get his worry. We have been through a lot WOR and lower Pioneer Valley and while the better winters in these zones were good they were nowhere near as EOR . I have factored in things which reduce snow on its own in these areas.

 

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can see on the 06z GFS, it shifted the 25"ish amounts NE into central NJ....def some LBNE trends.

2 days ago I posted watch that QPF trend. Good pickup. Since the GFS has led the way and modeling is moving towards it shouldn’t we give it more cred? 

Also not talking about you but glad to see the " don't do it" crowd silent. We have been down this last minute (day) road so many times you would think people would learn to withhold judgment until inside 72 hours. And hey Will f the Red Sox analog,this looks like a Dodgers off season. LFG 

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's like Dec 1992 for you.

And Jan 2024

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

2 days ago I posted watch that QPF trend. Good pickup. Since the GFS has led the way and modeling is moving towards it shouldn’t we give it more cred? 

Also not talking about you but glad to see the " don't do it" crowd silent. We have been down this last minute (day) road so many times you would think people would learn to withhold judgment until inside 72 hours. And hey Will f the Red Sox analog,this looks like a Dodgers off season. LFG 

Don’t do it 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

2 days ago I posted watch that QPF trend. Good pickup. Since the GFS has led the way and modeling is moving towards it shouldn’t we give it more cred? 

Also not talking about you but glad to see the " don't do it" crowd silent. We have been down this last minute (day) road so many times you would think people would learn to withhold judgment until inside 72 hours. And hey Will f the Red Sox analog,this looks like a Dodgers off season. LFG 

It was me, Steve...I have no issue at all on being called out on things I actually said, or stances that I took. All I ask is that folks don't mischaracterize my position, and you are not in this case. That said, this is still rather precarious and I'm not sold on a big hit.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was me, Steve...I have no issue at all on being called out on things I actually said, or stances that I took. All I ask is that folks don't mischaracterize my position, and you are not in this case. That said, this is still rather precarious and I'm not sold on a big hit.

Same and agree.

[Hoth]

I’m kinda feeling a Long Island jack on this. Keep moving that LB northeast. Phenomenal trend in the last several cycles. I will delighted to even sniff warning snow after the last several weeks. What cover I have left is brown and crusty and in desperate need of a refresh. 

[EastonSN+]

44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z eps

From 0z.

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was me, Steve...I have no issue at all on being called out on things I actually said, or stances that I took. All I ask is that folks don't mischaracterize my position, and you are not in this case. That said, this is still rather precarious and I'm not sold on a big hit.

Ryan and Scott? Also op did not regress

[Sey-Mour Snow]

18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea we need a march 17-like inside d2 nw trend. Stabilization now doesnt so much for us, just makes forecasting amounts easier lol.

Or gfs to verify, rgem had a band getting close to here .. I’m hopeful, unless we get messenger shuffles here on out then we are screwed IMO west of river 

[The 4 Seasons]

I suspect watches will go up with the PM package today, i imagine OKX/BOX/PHI will start of slow with the S/SE coast and slowly ramp up. Might just be for NYC and points south and BOX SE coast. Not that it matters, just speculating on what theyll do. Whatever the NBM is showing in the afternoon thats probably what to expect, probs over 40-50% and theyll be a watch there

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t do it 

Congrats on 6 today on the Euro and 20 on the GFS. Hope it's right and you STFU for the rest of the winter lol j/k brother. Man you are in the spot. Blizzard

[Kitz Craver]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

2 days ago I posted watch that QPF trend. Good pickup. Since the GFS has led the way and modeling is moving towards it shouldn’t we give it more cred? 

Also not talking about you but glad to see the " don't do it" crowd silent. We have been down this last minute (day) road so many times you would think people would learn to withhold judgment until inside 72 hours. And hey Will f the Red Sox analog,this looks like a Dodgers off season. LFG 

Aaron Boone?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ryan and Scott? Also op did not regress

I mean EURO AI OP. I didn't say "don't do it", but I was totally writing this off...no getting around that. I can be a pig-headed PIA, but I do not try to worm my way out of bad takes....ever.

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Aaron Boone?

Bite your tongue!

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Aaron Boone?

or Mariano Rivera?

[Pennfisherman]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS and EPS aren't that different around here.....it's more NJ

This is including todays/tonight's snow right? pretty misleading for northern areas. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats on 6 today on the Euro and 20 on the GFS. Hope it's right and you STFU for the rest of the winter lol j/k brother. Man you are in the spot. Blizzard

lol zero chance of 6 today. I’ll be lucky for 1-2 I think. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

The CCB is not getting back to ALB. Probably not even the deformation. 

But we could be deformed