“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[The 4 Seasons]

6Z euro looks almost identical to 00Z overall with evolution

QPF slightly better for S CT and SE MA

[Sey-Mour Snow]

11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

?

Looks nothing like gfs .. tic SE on AI, op held serve mostly .. mod hit cape gets crushed .. just so much different especially nyc metro than gfs 

[SouthCoastMA]

Dang Euro OP a crush job for SEMA

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks nothing like gfs .. tic SE on AI, op held serve mostly .. mod hit cape gets crushed .. just so much different especially nyc metro than gfs 

Euro won’t be right but it’s AI might.  And that is a good storm.  Clearly there is room to trend more nw.  What a day of tracking ahead.  At this point I’d do a euro ai gfs gfs ai compromise 

[kdxken]

 

[SouthCoastMA]

Yeah I hope he busts bad, especially in NJ. He issues his own weenie blizzard watch, what an ass clown

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

We are doubly screwed.

I'm breaking out my wallet now, i gotta see whats behind that paywall!

[Damage In Tolland]

Would be a huge ccb western NE on Euro depiction regardless of what qpf shows 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Yeah I hope he busts bad, especially in NJ. He issues his own weenie blizzard watch, what an ass clown

This is why meteorologists get a bad name.. Everyone wants to be the first to post.. He should give it until later today.. I am incrementally letting our following know about the threat increasing, this way if we get a carpet pull it's not a shock..

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would be a huge ccb western NE on Euro depiction regardless of what qpf shows 

Maybe, doesn't have to be, could be a Juno where it gets to you only and I smoke exhaust from your ccb .. nice banding showing up on guidance hopefully it spreads the wealth

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would be a huge ccb western NE on Euro depiction regardless of what qpf shows 

Yeah prob back towards Albany 

[The 4 Seasons]

One thing i can say for sure is we are miles better than where we were 24 hours ago. And that's a win.

Could have been just as uncertain or a main model trend towards where the Euro was 24hr ago and that didn't happen. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Maybe, doesn't have to be, could be a Juno where it gets to you only and I smoke exhaust from your ccb .. nice banding showing up on guidance hopefully it spreads the wealth

Looks good from about me to @FXWX

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looks like 06z EPS will slay.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

One thing i can say for sure is we are miles better than where we were 24 hours ago. And that's a win.

Could have been just as uncertain or a main model trend towards where the Euro was 24hr ago and that didn't happen. 

We can also put an end to the lack of bombing lows around the benchmark streak 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm pretty much sold...though my largest fear is a Jan 2022 type of cut-off....that was one of the most demoralizing storms in memory for me and it cut deeply.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We can also put an end to the lack of bombing lows around the benchmark streak 

Lets just not continue the wealth of bombing lows around Wallop island streak.

[tavwtby]

14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Maybe, doesn't have to be, could be a Juno where it gets to you only and I smoke exhaust from your ccb .. nice banding showing up on guidance hopefully it spreads the wealth

I've seen this movie before, my area gets stuck in subby between two bands and am halved the accumulating snow surrounding me, we'll see how it plays out, GFS looks good here, euro SE better, while we stat pad a few

[dendrite]

The CCB is not getting back to ALB. Probably not even the deformation. 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Maybe, doesn't have to be, could be a Juno where it gets to you only and I smoke exhaust from your ccb .. nice banding showing up on guidance hopefully it spreads the wealth

Let’s hope you and Runaway and everyone gets in on it 

[codfishsnowman]

4 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Monsoon coming? 

Rain for the next 8 days in the PC 

Those p/c are embarrassing lol....geez

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah this is what you want to start seeing for the potential for a big dog, a bunch of members inside the BM tucked in near ACK. 

It's the first run of the GEFS to really do that. 

Mean went way up as expected

6Z

00Z

18Z

Music to my ears....my wheelhouse is between the BM and the islands.

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty much sold...though my largest fear is a Jan 2022 type of cut-off....that was one of the most demoralizing storms in memory for me and it cut deeply.

that was brutal, even worse here. Missed a 16-22" by about 15 miles to my east and ended up with 7" of sand. Jan 15 and Jan 22 were pretty big demoralizing storms though 15 was even worse. 22 i was at least expecting a somewhat shaft. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The CCB is not getting back to ALB. Probably not even the deformation. 

I'm hoping he wasn't serious.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

that was brutal, even worse here. Missed a 16-22" by about 15 miles to my east and ended up with 7" of sand. Jan 15 and Jan 22 were pretty big demoralizing storms though 15 was even worse. 22 i was at least expecting a somewhat shaft. 

I narrowly missed the JP in 2015....Death band pivoted a bit beyond me after looking like it would stop around me, but no complaints.  Jan 2022 was a disaster I saw coming early in the event...I remember scooter tried talking me off the ledge, but I knew and just went and slept through most of it.

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Music to my ears....my wheelhouse is between the BM and the islands.

 yeah mostly same, a lot of BM (or hair SE) storms arent great here depending on the trajectory if they cross SW to NE over the BM thats fine like 2013 but if they swing a wide right almost due north/NE over the BM like Jan 15/22 then WOR can be in trouble. Theres obviously a ton of other factors but thats the general idea 

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Actually we do better with 40/69 or 39/70..but yeah that's still a crush job, and likely hammers much of eastern NE

What happened to the DC blizzard though?

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

6Z euro looks almost identical to 00Z overall with evolution

QPF slightly better for S CT and SE MA

Subtle, but you can start to make out the trend of a later closure with a slight LBNE nudge on 06z...

I don't like how the EURO doesn't curl it up, though...still kicks east at out latitude.

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm hoping he wasn't serious.

being on here for almost 12 years, and seeing from who that post originated, i assure you, it was not 

[FXWX]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks good from about me to @FXWX

Yes indeed