Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I gave a list of pros and cons for this in the monthly thread this morning. That content still applies. 50/50 ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ocean Effect Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago FWIW The I phone weather app shows 13-16" for Monday... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago EPS has some really good members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: EPS has some really good members It's also slightly S-E of previous mean 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago stormvista down for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I gave a list of pros and cons for this in the monthly thread this morning. That content still applies. 50/50 ... i will 100% take this at this range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i will 100% take this at this range If the set up successfully gets there, sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If the set up successfully gets there, sure. Definitely a better chance than the last one. That was a whiff. So feeling more positive about this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Lot of spread on the 12z EPS for this one, Looks a bit SE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Our Shakespeare Weather Friend Typhoon Tip: PRO: EPS mean being more aggressive than the operational version at this range is typically a red flag .. CON: however, to the straw man, having the ens mean more impressive than operational was also prevalent at this sort of range prior to the end January phantom bomb too. It didn't end well for the ensembles. Particularly in the EPS back then. CON: If it were not for the -PNA canvas I'd have less issue with this has value. PRO: The 00z CMC ensembles being hugely more bullish than the prior 12z mean is. PRO: While the 00z GEFs were still not very interested, the 06z made a significant step toward more concern. I don't think that's a trivial or unimportant. PRO: Sneaky aspect about the pattern foot ... the flow is both progressive, while relaxed in gradient. Of the two, the latter is a bigger positive than the former takes away. It's interesting ( actually ) to see that concurrent physical state in the field, but there is in fact less 60N to 35 N ambient gradient, which allows for more timely/delicate wave harmonics to get set up. This whole system seems to be nested in that favorable temporal dimension ... any later in date or early, it doesn't avail of that and ends up probably sheared/stretched and annoying. CON: Seasonal dearth of coastal storm types. This doesn't intrinsically instruct this thing for or against occurring, but the consistent no-gos do suggest something's going on that is preventative - identifying what that is, and if it is less effective in this case would be interesting. Lastly ... kind of a PRO. The hemispheric PV is either explicitly anchored, or implicitly attempting to do so, depending on guidance sourced and cycle/run, on our side of the NH. This is also somewhat sneaky and unnoticed, but it matters because if it were situated over on the other side while a very robust -PNA ... ongoing, we probably don't have any of this in the first place. 50/50... We could certainly see a strong system miss, or impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You have to remember that every met, aside from cyborg-Will, is human and also utilize defense mechanisms themselves lmao I've been posting more about torch and warm days just to get the ACATT riled up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: lmao I've been posting more about torch and warm days just to get the ACATT riled up 36 here . Torch !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 36 here . Torch !! Sorry for your loss.. 44-48 around here bright sunshine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Sorry for your loss.. 44-48 around here bright sunshine.. any pack left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's also slightly S-E of previous mean Yup, lost several of the stronger west members. Definite step back 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The Euro/EPS have struggled mightily in the past month, even within 48 hours. So in my view it's unusable, especially in the mid range, until they fix whatever is wrong with it. I'm putting much more weight onto the EURO AIFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Sorry for your loss.. 44-48 around here bright sunshine.. ugh that’s ugly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: any pack left? 6-10" based on shade 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yup, lost several of the stronger west members. Definite step back Yea. It’s slipping away for a big one WOR. Still can get a good event out here though. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago It’s Tuesday. The general direction of this will be clear tomorrow not today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You have some wiggle room here with models bulls eying NJ right now. was just going to say that to him.. like you said better than having it in the GOM right now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago 26 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Sorry for your loss.. 44-48 around here bright sunshine.. we nape, we melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Everyone that opens this thread will see Scott’s post on the top of this page. We need to get to another page I've been so busy I didn't see the models yet and just saw that post first and was like damn that deescalated quickly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I've been so busy I didn't see the models yet and just saw that post first and was like damn that deescalated quickly.. “Hey, let’s smack the shit out of that hornets nest over there. Now run!!!!” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted 46 minutes ago Share Posted 46 minutes ago The Euro seemed to have zero ridging behind the Fri/Saturday system, so everything slides ENE. It did look kind strange, being so flat and no other model is showing that. The CMC has a good amount of ridging, helping to amplify it much closer to the coast. The AIFS was somewhere in between. The 12z GEFS were actually pretty flat too. Eh, we'll know a lot more where things are trending 24 hours from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted 37 minutes ago Share Posted 37 minutes ago 9 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: The Euro seemed to have zero ridging behind the Fri/Saturday system, so everything slides ENE. It did look kind strange, being so flat and no other model is showing that. The CMC has a good amount of ridging, helping to amplify it much closer to the coast. The AIFS was somewhere in between. The 12z GEFS were actually pretty flat too. Eh, we'll know a lot more where things are trending 24 hours from now The euro family of models will win this time. Gfs and cmc familias will eventually slide se. I hopes I am wrong… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted 34 minutes ago Share Posted 34 minutes ago 10 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: The Euro seemed to have zero ridging behind the Fri/Saturday system, so everything slides ENE. It did look kind strange, being so flat and no other model is showing that. The CMC has a good amount of ridging, helping to amplify it much closer to the coast. The AIFS was somewhere in between. The 12z GEFS were actually pretty flat too. Eh, we'll know a lot more where things are trending 24 hours from now Yes, more GEFS members than not show a big goose egg for New England. That is concerning when coupled w/ the ECMWF op. But the AI ECMWF shows a hit!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted 33 minutes ago Share Posted 33 minutes ago 18 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: “Hey, let’s smack the shit out of that hornets nest over there. Now run!!!!” A staple form of "fun" for all males I knew growing up in the 1970's/1980's. Never got stung, but damn what a rush! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted 32 minutes ago Share Posted 32 minutes ago 38 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. It’s slipping away for a big one WOR. Still can get a good event out here though. Theme of the decade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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