SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I would be riding the radar / obs and as far as guidance: From past storms and other general feedback Weighting (rule of thumb inside 6 hours): HREF + HRRR (top tier) → RAP (thermals/p-type) → NAM 3km (structure/gradients) 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 coming more into reality-some of the GFS/NAM totals are likely over doneAt 9z tmr morning RAP has 13 inches vs 9 for HRRR. Easy to get caught up in every model run, but a 970 low just spinning in the same perfect spot for while is going to go nuts. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 19 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Post with a map, so annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: coming more into reality-some of the GFS/NAM totals are likely over done We need to keep in mind this isn't a gulf Miller A that is able to pull in enormous amounts of moisture like a 16 or 96. The fact we're even talking about 2 feet totals nearby is pretty crazy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Snowing back home in Commack. 34. 70 here in Miami 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 24 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: Deformation zones will see 36+ with outside it half the amount. What will cause the deformation zones in this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We need to keep in mind this isn't a gulf Miller A that is able to pull in enormous amounts of moisture like a 16 or 96. The fact we're even talking about 2 feet totals nearby is pretty crazy. it's the stall/capture that allows that to happen.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 10 minutes ago, North and West said: Someone could drop a million dollars in your lap and you would be concerned about currency devaluation. . One of the best comments in the entire thread. Literally LOLd 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Western parts of the area aren't far from of a 4-6 inch snowstorm if she were to wobble a bit further east, so it's really a nowcasting, watch the radar time. I am confident some areas will get 18+ and really jackpot, and it will be interesting to overlay actuals with the models when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Tide predictions up a half foot since yesterday. Manasquan now touching major. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Dark Star said: What will cause the deformation zones in this setup? I'm not that knowledgeable enough to know what will cause them in this particular setup except if there is frontogenesis. And I don't think they can be predicted where they setup shop until it happens. Maybe a pro can explain better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: Snowing back home in Commack. 34. 70 here in Miami That really sucks that you're not up here for this. I'd be pissed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 20 minutes ago, SACRUS said: NYC (Central Park) Snowstorms (Top 40 like the old radio countdowns) we may have a new smash hit coming in the top 15 Largest → Smallest Jan 22–24, 2016 – 27.5" Feb 11–12, 2006 – 26.9" Dec 26–27, 1947 – 26.4" Feb 25–27, 2010 – 20.9" Jan 7–8, 1996 – 20.2" Dec 26–27, 2010 – 20.0" Feb 16–17, 2003 – 19.8" Jan 26–27, 2011 – 19.0" Mar 7–8, 1941 – 18.1" Feb 5–7, 1978 – 17.7" Feb 11–12, 1983 – 17.6" Feb 3–4, 1961 – 17.4" Jan 31–Feb 3, 2021 – 17.4" Dec 19–20, 1948 – 16.0" Feb 9–10, 1969 – 15.3" Dec 11–12, 1960 – 15.2" Mar 3–4, 1960 – 14.5" Dec 5–7, 2003 – 14.0" Jan 22–23, 2005 – 13.8" Dec 21–22, 1959 – 13.7" Jan 19–20, 1978 – 13.6" Jan 23–24, 1935 – 13.0" Feb 11, 1994 – 12.8" Feb 19, 1979 – 12.7" Jan 12–13, 1964 – 12.5" Feb 7, 1967 – 12.5" Feb 13–14, 2014 – 12.5" Dec 30, 2000 – 12.0" Mar 20–21, 1958 – 11.8" Mar 18–19, 1956 – 11.6" Jan 21–22, 2014 – 11.5" Feb 8–9, 2013 – 11.4" Jan 25–26, 2026 – 11.4" Dec 26, 1933 – 11.2" Dec 19–20, 2009 – 10.9" Feb 4, 1995 – 10.8" Feb 20–21, 1947 – 10.7" Feb 16–17, 1996 – 10.7" Mar 13–14, 1993 – 10.6" Feb 11, 1933 – 10.0" Feb 10, 2010 – 10.0" There's actually 68, 10 inch or greater snowstorms in NYC since 1870. Did you cut off after a certain date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Tide predictions up a half foot since yesterday. Manasquan now touching major. We're very lucky it's not a new/full moon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 35 - very light snow/rain mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, Irish said: That really sucks that you're not up here for this. I'd be pissed! I’ll be following along. Home has lots of security cameras so I am not totally blind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: There's actually 68, 10 inch or greater snowstorms in NYC since 1870. Did you cut off after a certain date? It was a top 40 *(most recent) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 Flurries 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 20 Largest Snowstorms Central Park in NYC Rank Amount Year & Date(s) 1 27.5 January 23, 2016 2 26.9 February 11-12, 2006 3 25.8 December 26-27, 1947 4 21.0 March 12-14, 1888 5 20.9 February 25-26, 2010 6 20.2 January 7-8, 1996 7 20.0 December 26-27, 2010 8 19.8 February 16-17, 2003 9 19.0 January 26-27, 2011 10 18.1 March 7-8, 1941 11 18.1 January 22-24, 1935 12 18.0 December 26, 1872 13 17.7 February 5-7, 1978 14 17.6 February 11-12, 1983 15 17.5 February 4-7, 1920 16 17.4 February 3-4, 1961 17 17.4 Jan 31-Feb1 2021 18 16.0 December 19-20, 1948 19 16.0 February 12-13, 1899 20 15.3 February 9-10, 1969 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Good luck yall. Be watching from my post op room tomorrow, checking moms cams in eb to see. Down here in Va it’s nicer after our record 2 weeks.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oceanctyguy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 90% chance this won't happen but still amazing to see these numbers from Mt Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 26 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: Picking up subsidence in between the 2 heaviest bands 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 31 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: I’m one of those western sections in this storm and I’d take that and run! It’s worth a New Orleans trumpet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 NAM back to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2026022212&fh=31 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 One of the best comments in the entire thread. Literally LOLdWhat do you think by us? I’m guessing a foot give or take, with a large opportunity for more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 26 minutes ago, psv88 said: Snowing back home in Commack. 34. 70 here in Miami White rain. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 40/36. Moderate to heavy rain. ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2/22 12z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, mikem81 said: NAM back to reality Had to be expected. The numbers were wild. But still looks like wide spread 10-20. Can’t be too greedy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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