The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[Freezing Drizzle]

Light sprinkles of rain at 37 F here.

[donsutherland1]

The ground is coated from the light snow in Larchmont.

[Brian5671]

light snow here 32

[UKWeatherGeek.]

Measurement will be tricky but think most are being conservative here. Models often struggle with detail of bands, that combined with 1:11-1:12 ratios, the 12-18” estimations for metro are underdone. I’d say 16-22” is more accurate.

[SACRUS]

Combine the threads - Storm Discussion should include obs.  Just my 2 cents

36/36

[SnoSki14]

The light precip and rain/mix for most will continue until around 4PM and then temps crash after that when the real storm arrives. 

Using the HRRR mostly from this point on. 

[Prue11]

Hrrr took a step back 

[Freezing Drizzle]

8 hours ago, SACRUS said:

nyc 10+ snowfalls storms

 

NYC (Central Park) Snowstorms ≥ 10.0"

1933–2026

Feb 11, 1933 – 10.0"

Dec 26, 1933 – 11.2"

Jan 23–24, 1935 – 13.0"

Mar 7–8, 1941 – 18.1"

Feb 20–21, 1947 – 10.7"

Dec 26–27, 1947 – 26.4"

Dec 19–20, 1948 – 16.0"

Mar 18–19, 1956 – 11.6"

Mar 20–21, 1958 – 11.8"

Dec 21–22, 1959 – 13.7"

Mar 3–4, 1960 – 14.5"

Dec 11–12, 1960 – 15.2"

Feb 3–4, 1961 – 17.4"

Jan 12–13, 1964 – 12.5"

Feb 7, 1967 – 12.5"

Feb 9–10, 1969 – 15.3"

Jan 19–20, 1978 – 13.6"

Feb 5–7, 1978 – 17.7"

Feb 19, 1979 – 12.7"

Feb 11–12, 1983 – 17.6"

Mar 13–14, 1993 – 10.6"

Feb 11, 1994 – 12.8"

Feb 4, 1995 – 10.8"

Jan 7–8, 1996 – 20.2"

Feb 16–17, 1996 – 10.7"

Dec 30, 2000 – 12.0"

Feb 16–17, 2003 – 19.8"

Dec 5–7, 2003 – 14.0"

Jan 27–28, 2004 – 10.3"

Jan 22–23, 2005 – 13.8"

Feb 11–12, 2006 – 26.9"

Dec 19–20, 2009 – 10.9"

Feb 10, 2010 – 10.0"

Feb 25–27, 2010 – 20.9"

Dec 26–27, 2010 – 20.0"

Jan 26–27, 2011 – 19.0"

Feb 8–9, 2013 – 11.4"

Jan 21–22, 2014 – 11.5"

Feb 13–14, 2014 – 12.5"

Jan 22–24, 2016 – 27.5"

Dec 16–17, 2020 – 10.5"

Jan 31–Feb 3, 2021 – 17.4"

Jan 25–26, 2026 – 11.4"

@SACRUS was Jan 26–27, 2011 (– 19.0") the storm that shut down parts of Monmouth/Ocean County with totals around 30 inches?

[My notes show 17.75 inches, here in Perth Amboy.]

@weatherpruf @RU848789 Do you guys remember it? My sister lived in Bradley Beach and could not get out of her property for days.

[Prue11]

4 minutes ago, UKWeatherGeek. said:

Measurement will be tricky but think most are being conservative here. Models often struggle with detail of bands, that combined with 1:11-1:12 ratios, the 12-18” estimations for metro are underdone. I’d say 16-22” is more accurate.

I believe 12-15” is a good call for nyc itself 

[WeatherGeek2025]

[allgame830]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Combine the threads - Storm Discussion should include obs.  Just my 2 cents

36/36

Yeah I don’t like the split in threads gotta go back and forth 

[Prue11]

Places will bust low and places will bust high. Get under the right band and you’ll do good

[Snowman92]

Same , need to keep 2 tabs open

[BoulderWX]

Anyone have a good national or regional radar 

[NsWx516]

3 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

I believe 12-15” is a good call for nyc itself 

I think 18”-22” is a better call for Nyc. The NWS is predicting 20” and I think they might be playing it slightly conservative. I think Nyc is going to score on this one

[Freezing Drizzle]

Current - the 32 F isotherm line roughly runs from western Passaic County westward to the Poconos.

[allgame830]

4 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Hrrr took a step back 

Post with a map, so annoying

[Blizzardo]

1 minute ago, Prue11 said:

Places will bust low and places will bust high. Get under the right band and you’ll do good

Deformation zones will see 36+ with outside it half the amount.

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

Anyone have a good national or regional radar 

https://radar.weather.gov/region/northeast/standard

[Prue11]

5 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Deformation zones will see 36+ with outside it half the amount.

36 is a stretch. I don’t believe these big totals are as widespread as forecasted 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Post with a map, so annoying

a bit east which affects western sections

[kat5hurricane]

Some of the models have cut back a bit but it's noise at this point, this is still a really big storm with 12-20 areawide.

[BoulderWX]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

a bit east which affects western sections

I’m one of those western sections in this storm

and I’d take that and run! 

[Tatamy]

47 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

It’s an interesting forecast where I am near the Delaware River with only the short term Mesos calling for big snows here (12-18”) whereas the globals and some mesos are calling for 8-12”.  The IVT will be the key out here for me and other NW areas.  The cutoff will be right through my general area I believe.

12z HRRR concurs with the Delaware River cutoff for the big snows.

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

a bit east which affects western sections

Again ratios for a good 6-8hrs will likely be higher than 10:1

I'm playing it conservative but trust the NWS too. 

This is one instance where an overperformance wouldn't surprise me. How often do we see a 970mb low inside the BM. 

[Blizzardo]

5 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

36 is a stretch. I don’t believe these big totals are as widespread as forecasted 

Deformation zones are not widespread. Very easy to get 36 in a powerhouse like this.

[SACRUS]

NYC (Central Park) Snowstorms (Top 40 like the old radio countdowns) we may have a new smash hit coming in the top 15 

 Largest → Smallest

Jan 22–24, 2016 – 27.5"

Feb 11–12, 2006 – 26.9"

Dec 26–27, 1947 – 26.4"

Feb 25–27, 2010 – 20.9"

Jan 7–8, 1996 – 20.2"

Dec 26–27, 2010 – 20.0"

Feb 16–17, 2003 – 19.8"

Jan 26–27, 2011 – 19.0"

Mar 7–8, 1941 – 18.1"

Feb 5–7, 1978 – 17.7"

Feb 11–12, 1983 – 17.6"

Feb 3–4, 1961 – 17.4"

Jan 31–Feb 3, 2021 – 17.4"

Dec 19–20, 1948 – 16.0"

Feb 9–10, 1969 – 15.3"

Dec 11–12, 1960 – 15.2"

Mar 3–4, 1960 – 14.5"

Dec 5–7, 2003 – 14.0"

Jan 22–23, 2005 – 13.8"

Dec 21–22, 1959 – 13.7"

Jan 19–20, 1978 – 13.6"

Jan 23–24, 1935 – 13.0"

Feb 11, 1994 – 12.8"

Feb 19, 1979 – 12.7"

Jan 12–13, 1964 – 12.5"

Feb 7, 1967 – 12.5"

Feb 13–14, 2014 – 12.5"

Dec 30, 2000 – 12.0"

Mar 20–21, 1958 – 11.8"

Mar 18–19, 1956 – 11.6"

Jan 21–22, 2014 – 11.5"

Feb 8–9, 2013 – 11.4"

Jan 25–26, 2026 – 11.4"

Dec 26, 1933 – 11.2"

Dec 19–20, 2009 – 10.9"

Feb 4, 1995 – 10.8"

Feb 20–21, 1947 – 10.7"

Feb 16–17, 1996 – 10.7"

Mar 13–14, 1993 – 10.6"

Feb 11, 1933 – 10.0"

Feb 10, 2010 – 10.0"

[North and West]

Here are my thoughts….i’m going with the RGEM. RGEM all the way. It’s been the most consistent for days and hasn’t budged. Great model. Makes the most sense. I think the NAM is about to go down in an epic flaming dumpster fire. It’s going to have its hugest bust ever. GFS has been downgrading amounts since Friday evening. Ride the RGEM
 
6z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022206&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Someone could drop a million dollars in your lap and you would be concerned about currency devaluation.


.

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Some of the models have cut back a bit but it's really noise at this point, this is still a really big storm with 12-20 areawide.

Deformation banding will gift some with huge totals and rob others - always the case its not such a uniform distribution as the globals and other models show.  QPF in general will be 1-1.4 aread wide ( 8-14 or so) and under those heaviest bands/banding  up to and exceeding 2-2.5 LE and that's where the >18-24 inches totals in those areas the target has been depicted in the Ocean - Monmouth cty and LI/SNE areas.

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Some of the models have cut back a bit but it's noise at this point, this is still a really big storm with 12-20 areawide.

coming more into reality-some of the GFS/NAM totals are likely over done