The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[Tatamy]

57 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It'll be there but the caveat is an inverted trough will be in place which could enhance totals on the western flank and lead to much less sharper cutoffs than we'd normally see. 

In addition I expect the strongest banding to be NW of where models have them as is almost always thr case. 

It’s an interesting forecast where I am near the Delaware River with only the short term Mesos calling for big snows here (12-18”) whereas the globals and some mesos are calling for 8-12”.  The IVT will be the key out here for me and other NW areas.  The cutoff will be right through my general area I believe.

[dWave]

33 minutes ago, Snowman92 said:

Rain in Brooklyn. This will impact snow totals if rain keeps up

That was always forecast though. I dont think the forecasts were relying on much acclumation during the day today, especially in the morning.

In the bx I started as drizzle to now steady snow but basically white rain for now. I expected rain or white rain for a while today.

[ForestHillWx]

7 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Wow, I just looked at my latest warning and saw it was 18-25 too!!

I haven’t forgot to respond; just tied up the past 24 hrs. I hope you are ready to enjoy this. 

I’m keying in on that out max weenie band that’s been modeled over the highlands area. If we can get under that for a period, we will tickle high numbers. 

I think this storm will have a few surprises; some of the 700 fronto maps have been epic. 

[ForestHillWx]

Snowing in Chester; 33/30 at the moment. 

[NorthShoreWx]

Light snow began in Smithtown at 7:50am.  34/31

[Mail Man]

I’m going to get nothing done at work today. I brought my tablet with me. Looking forward to this.

[Blizzardo]

8 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Anyone figure what the drifts would be if the higher end totals verify?

not sure that can be figured out. but I could see 10-15 footers again like I did in 96

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Wow you don’t see this everyday from mt holly 

[BoulderWX]

7 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

I haven’t forgot to respond; just tied up the past 24 hrs. I hope you are ready to enjoy this. 

I’m keying in on that out max weenie band that’s been modeled over the highlands area. If we can get under that for a period, we will tickle high numbers. 

I think this storm will have a few surprises; some of the 700 fronto maps have been epic. 

Ha all good man! I have all the essentials to enjoy this one - I hope you and the family do the same! 

[dWave]

28 minutes ago, Snowman92 said:

Calm down. I am aware accumulations and heavy snow doesnt start till later , just stating the rain is pretty serious right now and the ground will be wet and puddles are forming. Won't be easy for the snow to necessarily pile.up with ease. 

For whats its worth, temps look slightly lower that forecast at this time.  LGA is 34 instead of upper 30s. If we hold nearly steady today then drop a few tonight we'd be ahead of the game

[NorthShoreWx]

11 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Anyone figure what the drifts would be if the higher end totals verify?

Highly dependent on location.  If you're on the downwind shore of a large frozen lake, you might get buried in a drift...or not depending on what is upwind of the lake.

There will be several foot deep drifts in spots on top of the Kings Park bluffs, but that's relatively common.

A slight tweak is that the winds might be more northerly than northeast.

[binbisso]

From nws

 

A potentially historic winter storm will impact the Tri-State
area today into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with
blizzard conditions expected to develop tonight

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Lots of respect for you and @BxEngine! You both make it hard to stay away for long. 
 

I have been on the sidelines for way too long. I’m fine with or without a obs thread

It’s great to see that winter finally put in a cameo appearance this year compared to what we have been getting recently.

[binbisso]

4 minutes ago, dWave said:

For whats its worth, temps look slightly lower that forecast at this time.  LGA is 34 instead of upper 30s. If we hold nearly steady today then drop a few tonight we'd be ahead of the game

Snowing now at lga and cpk. There shouldn't be much accumulation during the day as this snow is from inverted. Light snow and temps around 32 during the day will limit accumulations. Real show starts after 7pm tonight 

[Brasiluvsnow]

One eye out my window the other on my TV as the Hockey Gold Medal game begins now LIVE ----USA USA USA

[jimbo073]

Rain / Snow mix here in Hoboken

[SACRUS]

[Freezing Drizzle]

Light sprinkles of rain at 37 F here.

[donsutherland1]

The ground is coated from the light snow in Larchmont.

[Brian5671]

light snow here 32

[UKWeatherGeek.]

Measurement will be tricky but think most are being conservative here. Models often struggle with detail of bands, that combined with 1:11-1:12 ratios, the 12-18” estimations for metro are underdone. I’d say 16-22” is more accurate.

[SnoSki14]

The light precip and rain/mix for most will continue until around 4PM and then temps crash after that when the real storm arrives. 

Using the HRRR mostly from this point on. 

[Prue11]

Hrrr took a step back 

[Freezing Drizzle]

8 hours ago, SACRUS said:

nyc 10+ snowfalls storms

 

NYC (Central Park) Snowstorms ≥ 10.0"

1933–2026

Feb 11, 1933 – 10.0"

Dec 26, 1933 – 11.2"

Jan 23–24, 1935 – 13.0"

Mar 7–8, 1941 – 18.1"

Feb 20–21, 1947 – 10.7"

Dec 26–27, 1947 – 26.4"

Dec 19–20, 1948 – 16.0"

Mar 18–19, 1956 – 11.6"

Mar 20–21, 1958 – 11.8"

Dec 21–22, 1959 – 13.7"

Mar 3–4, 1960 – 14.5"

Dec 11–12, 1960 – 15.2"

Feb 3–4, 1961 – 17.4"

Jan 12–13, 1964 – 12.5"

Feb 7, 1967 – 12.5"

Feb 9–10, 1969 – 15.3"

Jan 19–20, 1978 – 13.6"

Feb 5–7, 1978 – 17.7"

Feb 19, 1979 – 12.7"

Feb 11–12, 1983 – 17.6"

Mar 13–14, 1993 – 10.6"

Feb 11, 1994 – 12.8"

Feb 4, 1995 – 10.8"

Jan 7–8, 1996 – 20.2"

Feb 16–17, 1996 – 10.7"

Dec 30, 2000 – 12.0"

Feb 16–17, 2003 – 19.8"

Dec 5–7, 2003 – 14.0"

Jan 27–28, 2004 – 10.3"

Jan 22–23, 2005 – 13.8"

Feb 11–12, 2006 – 26.9"

Dec 19–20, 2009 – 10.9"

Feb 10, 2010 – 10.0"

Feb 25–27, 2010 – 20.9"

Dec 26–27, 2010 – 20.0"

Jan 26–27, 2011 – 19.0"

Feb 8–9, 2013 – 11.4"

Jan 21–22, 2014 – 11.5"

Feb 13–14, 2014 – 12.5"

Jan 22–24, 2016 – 27.5"

Dec 16–17, 2020 – 10.5"

Jan 31–Feb 3, 2021 – 17.4"

Jan 25–26, 2026 – 11.4"

@SACRUS was Jan 26–27, 2011 (– 19.0") the storm that shut down parts of Monmouth/Ocean County with totals around 30 inches?

[My notes show 17.75 inches, here in Perth Amboy.]

@weatherpruf @RU848789 Do you guys remember it? My sister lived in Bradley Beach and could not get out of her property for days.

[Prue11]

4 minutes ago, UKWeatherGeek. said:

Measurement will be tricky but think most are being conservative here. Models often struggle with detail of bands, that combined with 1:11-1:12 ratios, the 12-18” estimations for metro are underdone. I’d say 16-22” is more accurate.

I believe 12-15” is a good call for nyc itself 

[WeatherGeek2025]

[Prue11]

Places will bust low and places will bust high. Get under the right band and you’ll do good

[BoulderWX]

Anyone have a good national or regional radar 

[NsWx516]

3 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

I believe 12-15” is a good call for nyc itself 

I think 18”-22” is a better call for Nyc. The NWS is predicting 20” and I think they might be playing it slightly conservative. I think Nyc is going to score on this one

[Freezing Drizzle]

Current - the 32 F isotherm line roughly runs from western Passaic County westward to the Poconos.