Snowlover11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Is that stuff in central pa hitting the ground? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 14 minutes ago, WeatherFox said: Snowfall rates can jackpot with thunder snow. Though I have seen it go either way. Either heavy snow, or a change to sleet! 12/30/00 was sure as hell no change to sleet and that must've been 4" per hour when it was the once I heard thundersnow. Was literally blinding heavy snow. The rain line wasn't too far east in Suffolk County, Long Beach lucked out for once that day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Sref is very consistent much lower in certain areas especially the ocean county coast VS. the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: much lower in certain areas especially the ocean county coast VS. the NAM Nam is too aggressive imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: much lower in certain areas especially the ocean county coast VS. the NAM Idk anyone who thinks this will drop 40 inches but 20"+ is certainly a decent possibility. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Latest NBM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Upton hedging with 3-23" lol Mt. Holly has a crazier 1-25" for Philadelphia "I'm playing both sides that way I always end up on top" Sent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 What are current NWS forecasts for the contest sites? I will put those into the contest (30 entries, now closed). Never mind, I found the map ... 17.1" NYC, (est 18" LGA) ... 20.3" ISP ... 19.3" JFK, 17.1" EWR ... I am sure I saw higher values earlier so they have cut back slightly. They don't specify LGA so I took a map interpolation for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 hours ago, TriPol said: I thought the story was that he died of natural causes. I checked with three different AI programs, ChatGPT, perplexity, and Grok and two of three say official cause was natural causes. ChatGPT which I originally used without checking the others did have the suicide story but apparently that's incorrect. Should have known better than to trust one source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 HRRR drops 25 inches on nyc 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: HRRR drops 25 inches on nyc How? Weather balloon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 15 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: What are current NWS forecasts for the contest sites? I will put those into the contest (30 entries, now closed). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Thanks, Don, I found an earlier version that was a bit less aggressive. Will use your later one instead. What would you say for LGA (they don't specify) ... I will say 21.5" given the other data. These were the earlier ones 17.1" NYC, (est 18" LGA) ... 20.3" ISP ... 19.3" JFK ... 17.1" EWR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Thanks, Don, I found an earlier version that was a bit less aggressive. Will use your later one instead. What would you say for LGA (they don't specify) ... I will say 21.5" given the other data. These were the earlier ones 17.1" NYC, (est 18" LGA) ... 20.3" ISP ... 19.3" JFK ... 17.1" EWR Seems reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Nam shifted those huge bands from NJ to Long Isand which gets into NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Wow Upton 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Band rotates over the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Upton was close to our contest consensus earlier and is now about 3" higher in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaysoner Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 All of NJ is now under blizzard warnings, which extend well into PA. So is all of the Upton forecast area. The total area covered must be about 25,000 sq mi.. from Delmarva tip, to border of Maine. Anyone remember the last time there were such extensive blizzard warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Has the gov't of New Jersey issued any stay off the roads warnings yet? Around late afternoon or evening I could imagine a lot of people getting stranded in life-threatening conditions on those wide open freeways. The only storm I can recall with three feet of snow and 65 mph wind gusts was Blizzard of 78 in eastern MA, or any given mega-squall event in Great Lakes region. And I know of cases where people were trapped for 24-36 hours in vehicles and after rescue locally were then stranded in community centers for 5-7 days. I wouldn't expect it to go on that long in NJ but it would be at least Wednesday before there's any semblance of normal mobility if some of this guidance is correct. Long Island won't be much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Blizzard warnings were just extended into Orange and Putnam county in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Insane run for our area 10:1 and Kuchera 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Has the gov't of New Jersey issued any stay off the roads warnings yet? Around late afternoon or evening I could imagine a lot of people getting stranded in life-threatening conditions on those wide open freeways. The only storm I can recall with three feet of snow and 65 mph wind gusts was Blizzard of 78 in eastern MA, or any given mega-squall event in Great Lakes region. And I know of cases where people were trapped for 24-36 hours in vehicles and after rescue locally were then stranded in community centers for 5-7 days. I wouldn't expect it to go on that long in NJ but it would be at least Wednesday before there's any semblance of normal mobility if some of this guidance is correct. Long Island won't be much different. Sherrill began repeated stating "stay off the roads" yesterday. Technically, there is no legislation in the state of NJ to outright ban travel, as was attempted during the covid crud. Most people will head warnings, as the term "blizzard" has been in everyone's life for nearly 24 hours now. Regardless of warnings, youll always have a certain percentage of folks that will attempt to travel. Luckily, Sunday afternoon and night is not a common heavy-traffic period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NsWx516 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 It’s amazing to me how so many model runs have only gotten better as the event gets closer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Blizzard warning upgraded here to 16-20 inches. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I would be worried for people returning from weekends away, let's say up to Vermont or upstate NY, w PA etc, who might not have heard about the impending blizzard and will be driving into the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: I would be worried for people returning from weekends away, let's say up to Vermont or upstate NY, w PA etc, who might not have heard about the impending blizzard and will be driving into the storm. Will always be some who are impacted during travel. Unavoidable. This may be one of the VERY FEW benefits of a world engulfed by social media, though. Id be very surprised if anyone on the east coast hasnt been bombarded by blizzard-talk. I have relatives from both Oklahoma and Texas calling and asking me about the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Look at all that QPF. Good grief 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T5403CG Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Look at all that QPF. Good grief Insane... never saw that ever for where I live (South Shore Long Island)...Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3k Nam is alot less than the 12k Nam but still impressive totals in LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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