weatherpruf Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 people are in denial; it will miss us, still a chance this will be nothing; its only at the shore, its only boston yada yada. people do not want to believe it; years of busts remembered but no one remembers 5 years ago or ten years ago......i can't believe the things i'm hearing from people, likewise i can't wrap my head around what i'm seeing here; this isn't just some snow, this is serious damn business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T5403CG Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Nam is going to be bigUnderstatement... Yikes!Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, deathstar9 said: Wind and drifting might be a bigger story than the massive snow totals. Not sure the last time we had such insane wind. Boxing Day 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 https://x.com/WxRiskGrains/status/2025278590648987850 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Boxing Day 2010. True but this one gets it much further inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xeimonas Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 high end amount increased 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Xeimonas said: high end amount increased Lmao what in the world 3-20” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 hours ago, NJwx85 said: The globals are under modeling the snow totals. It’s time to focus on the short term high res models to see where the best banding will be. The track and intensity at this point should be locked in. This happens all the time. The globals always come in dry leading up to big snowstorms, seen it happen many times. Time to focus more on the mesos now that we're almost 24 hours away. 12" seems like the floor for most of us considering how intense this system will be, of course there will be subsidence somewhere so some might get shafted but this is a big one for just about all of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 19 minutes ago, TriPol said: Dude - every model agrees with the NAM. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: people are in denial; it will miss us, still a chance this will be nothing; its only at the shore, its only boston yada yada. people do not want to believe it; years of busts remembered but no one remembers 5 years ago or ten years ago......i can't believe the things i'm hearing from people, likewise i can't wrap my head around what i'm seeing here; this isn't just some snow, this is serious damn business. That happened for Sandy too. People were in denial. We knew what was going to happen two weeks out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Dear GFS, We owe you an apology. When you first showed this blizzard days ago, we laughed, doubted you, and even called you “Goofus.” Turns out… you saw it coming before the rest of us. The snow is piling up, and you were right. Respectfully, A very humbled crew 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3k 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: That happened for Sandy too. People were in denial. We knew what was going to happen two weeks out. yup i remember. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxingdayblizzard Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 3k Wow, those snow bands it’s depicting, all the way into NE Jersey. What a beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 https://townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/p/weather-model-run-times.html Just so everyone has the ability to see this. It's a bit old and doesn't include the 6z and 18z times of the EURO as well as the run times of the AI versions of the GFS and EURO, but it's still somewhat helpful: Quote GFS (out to 384 hours) 0z: 10:30pm 6z: 4:30am 12z: 10:30am 18z: 4:30pm NAM (out to 84 hours) 0z: 8:35pm 6z: 2:35am 12z: 8:35am 18z: 2:35pm CMC (out to 180 hours) 0z: 12:00am 12z : 12:00pm UKMET (out to 72 hours) 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm ECMWF (EURO) (out to 240 hours) 0z: 1:30am 12z: 1:30pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 18z NAM 3k Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 Snow 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The GFS was terrible with Sandy. The Euro nailed it 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 3k all-timer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NsWx516 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, TriPol said: That happened for Sandy too. People were in denial. We knew what was going to happen two weeks out. I was here lurking at the time. I went out and bought two generators and enough gas to ride out the storm comfortably. I remember reading on here then seeing that there was going to be a full moon and thought….holy sh*t….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Wow so many new pages, been playing top golf with fire dept. Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 18z NAM 3k Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 Snow 10:1 Definitely more realstic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 GFS is the new King! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 ICON better phase and more amped. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, winterwarlock said: Definitely more realstic It's insane that a "realistic" scenario for NYC is two feet of snow. I love it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: GFS is the new King! Congrats, man. You've been wanting this storm for a while. Hope you enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, TriPol said: It's insane that a "realistic" scenario for NYC is two feet of snow. I love it. Because its more in line with majority of models not the 2-3 ft gfs and nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EW9616 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 It's insane that a "realistic" scenario for NYC is two feet of snow. I love it.All hard to believe with it being almost 50 today. One of the nicest days in a while with tons of snow melt. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Latest OKX AFD explains it all Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 338 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Blizzard warnings are now in effect for the entire area except Orange and Putnam counties where a winter storm warning remains in effect. The warnings start at 1pm Sunday Snowfall amounts have been increased slightly && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An intense coastal storm will bring heavy snowfall and strong winds from Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon. Blizzard conditions are expected across much of the area with near-blizzard conditions across Orange and Putnam counties Sunday night into the first half of Monday. 2) Potential for widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding and dune erosion/overwashes Sunday night. Additional coastal flooding is possible on Monday. 3) Low pressure and a cold front will bring another chance for precipitation during mid next week. Temperatures rising into the 40s by the end of the week will allow for snow melt. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Major winter storm impacts the Tri-State Sunday into Monday. Model guidance has continued to converge on the evolution, track, and intensity of the system. Low pressure will quickly develop off along the North Carolina coast Sunday morning and rapidly intensify Sunday evening into Monday morning as it slowly lifts north-north east towards the 40N/70W bookmark. There have been some minor fluctuation within the guidance on the exact location of the low and whether it passes just inside, over, or just east of the benchmark. However, little change to the overall impacts would occur in these scenarios. Ensemble solutions that were passing much further offshore with a graze scenario are continuing to look less and less likely. Model guidance shows pressures rapidly falling Sunday night with the low deepening around 970 mb as it nears the benchmark. Some guidance even has it a few mb lower. The low occludes and gets captured by the upper low with deepening ending and the low beginning to level off as it lifts NE to off the Cape Monday night. Light snow, or a mix of rain and snow, may develop Sunday morning, but steadier snow should begin overspreading the area from south to north in the afternoon and evening. Surface temperatures initially will be above freezing so little to no impact from any snow expected through early afternoon. Once the precip intensity increases mid to late Sunday afternoon, accumulations should begin more efficiently on colder surfaces, and then roadways Sunday evening as temperatures drop below freezing. Since there will be little to no impact in the morning, the start time of the Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings have been moved to 1pm Sunday. This may still be a bit early, but overall conditions will deteriorate as the evening approaches. The explosive development of the low pressure will aid in the expansion of snow well north and west of the low center. Bands of moderate to heavy snow will rotate from the southeast to the northwest during the evening into the overnight as the cyclone rapidly deepens. These bands of moderate to heavy snow will continue into Monday morning withing the comma head of the storm (typically to the N and W of the center of low pressure). These lingering bands will diminish as the low pulls away Monday afternoon. The system is now getting within the range of the high res guidance and we are beginning to see notable trends of an uptick in QPF. These changes may move around a bit in the next 24 hours, but overall the trend supports increasing snowfall totals from the previous forecast. Total snowfall ranges from 12-16 inches inland and S CT to around 15-20 inches closer to the coast. There is a reasonable worse case for around 2 ft+ of snow. The chance for these amounts may be closer to the coast/Long Island, but cannot entirely rule this out even inland if heavier bands shift further NW away from the low center. There are still several ECMWF-EPS ensemble members that are very likely skewing the overall distribution of the probabilistic snow. These members have started trending up with the latest 12z EPS, lending more confidence that the low end amounts are unlikely to be correct. Intense dynamics are expected with this storm including strong difluence and intense frontogenesis all lead to heavy banding potential and heavy snowfall rates Sunday night into Monday morning. The cold conveyor belt late Sunday night and Monday morning appears to sit right on top of the area which will help the bands remain in place for a while and generally snow themselves out as the storm starts departing. Snowfall rates increase Sunday evening, becoming 1-2" per hour with locally up to 3 inches per hour at times. Several major winter storms in recent history have produced large heavy snow bands in the deformation zone with rates locally as high as 4" per hour. This cannot be ruled out given the type of storm being depicted by the models. There is also a chance of a few lightning strikes in the heavier banding Sunday night into Monday morning. Have not included thunder in the forecast yet, but cannot ruled this potential out. Winds will also be quite strong with this storm. Model soundings show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 45 to 55 mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and southeast CT up to 60 or 65 mph. Inland areas will be weaker, but could still see frequent gusts 35 to 45 mph. The highest winds will occur Sunday night into the first half of Monday. The blizzard warnings were expanded to higher confidence in considerable falling snow, strong winds, and poor visibility well away from the coast. Near-blizzard conditions are possible outside the blizzard warning. The snowfall character will start wet and then gradually become drier as the event matures Sunday night into Monday. Ratios likely average around 10:1 early on, possibly lower Sunday afternoon, before averaging around 11-13:1 overnight Sunday into Monday morning. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into Monday morning. Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories. .KEY MESSAGE 3... There may be a few frontal systems that move across in a mostly zonal flow mid to late next week. Precip chances have come up a bit late in the week with mostly rain expected at this point. Temperatures Tuesday range from the upper 20s to low 30s. Temperatures then trend closer to normal the rest of the week. This will allow for snowmelt each day and with mostly sub- freezing temperatures at night into early morning, subsequent refreeze of snow melt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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