Stormlover74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Northof78 said: There are forecasts for as little as 6 - 12" for W NJ, S NY State, chances are most of these areas are getting 15" - 25", NAM had near 20" to Harrisburg and Albany...they got to up quick Too many models not going with the huge amounts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Basically a hurricane 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Too many models not going with the huge amounts Dynamics tell the story. Ride it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Too many models not going with the huge amounts This People need to acknowledge there are several models vs NAM/GFS where the 8-16 forecast makes good sense The higher amounts could verify..or not. There will still be time to bump them tomorrow if warranted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Hey whats the analog here? 96 seems to be it at least with this NAM run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Someone in your region will get 24-36” depending where the h7 band ends up. Really jealous. Should get like 6-10” here in Philly, but your region is primed imo. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 18 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: yea but if they miss they dont count! lol I’ve never heard of 1996 mentioned as a triple phaser. Classic ones I have remember were 1993, Ohio Valley super bomb of 1978 and great Appalachian blizzard of 1950. All of those got down to 955-960. Dont think 1996 even got below 980. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 28 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Forget monday travel east coast And Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Can start to see the semblance of a weenie band setting up from West Point southwest to West Milford down to my area near Long Valley. For us northern folks, that outer max band always brings the goods; hope I end up under it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Hey whats the analog here? 96 seems to be it at least with this NAM run. In 96 snow started in the city with temperatures in the mid teens. Very different in that respect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, deathstar9 said: I’ve never heard of 1996 mentioned as a triple phaser. Classic ones I have remember were 1993, Ohio Valley super bomb of 1978 and great Appalachian blizzard of 1950. All of those got down to 955-960. Dont think 1996 even got below 980. No 96 was not a super LP like that. I am kinda stumped to analog this. We might logging the analog so to speak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 hi amwx'ers. i will (most likely) be relocating back to san diego in the beginning of next year. will be doing a back and forth between sd and albany (2 months sd, one month albs). i am beyond ecstatic to not live in the nyc metro (sorry) but what a send off for winter we're about to have. lets all cash in here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, deathstar9 said: I’ve never heard of 1996 mentioned as a triple phaser. Classic ones I have remember were 1993, Ohio Valley super bomb of 1978 and great Appalachian blizzard of 1950. All of those got down to 955-960. Dont think 1996 even got below 980. Appreciate that. Rare beasts. 2001 was sort of, but not in the classical sense. Very rare and lets see the verification. Players on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 12z Summary Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 NYC / Snow 10:1 NYC SREF: 1/8 / 17.1 NAM: 2.5 / 24.1 NAM 3k: 2.2 / 21.6 ICON: 1.4 / 13.9 RGEM: 1.3 / 13.1 Updated with ICON and RGEM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Updated with ICON and RGEM 10-20 localized 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Crazy to still have fairly large differences in QPF/snow forecasts 24 hours till game time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Can start to see the semblance of a weenie band setting up from West Point southwest to West Milford down to my area near Long Valley. For us northern folks, that outer max band always brings the goods; hope I end up under it. What are you thinking for us neighbor? All in or still cautious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Updated with ICON and RGEM All look great however that is a large difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 96 southern stream came out of the gulf and I thought it pulled in the western and northern streams if I am using the right terms... Could be wrong but regardless.... this is an equal powerhouse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Appreciate that. Rare beasts. 2001 was sort of, but not in the classical sense. Very rare and lets see the verification. Players on the field. You don’t need a triple phaser to get low 960’s though. Boxing Day and Jan 2018 did it with no triple phase. Feb 1978 was probably the best wind snow storm in the last 100 years and it was only around 980 with a 1040 high nearby giving it a huge gradient. 1996 also had an impressive high nearby and a tight gradient. With this one looks like a 1050 high but it’s further afield in central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Gfs rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 11 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Can start to see the semblance of a weenie band setting up from West Point southwest to West Milford down to my area near Long Valley. For us northern folks, that outer max band always brings the goods; hope I end up under it. Last night I thought I would be happy with 12”. Now I want 18” or bust. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Mesos will have more weight than globals soon. This is a very extreme storm. A sub 970 storm south of LI is no joke 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: 96 southern stream came out of the gulf and I thought it pulled in the western and northern streams if I am using the right terms... Could be wrong but regardless.... this is an equal powerhouse... I’m no expert! Thought it was overrunning than transfer with a normal phase. Storm never got sub 980 but had very solid winds due to the close in arctic high creating a tight gradient. If this tucks in winds should be higher than 1996 but doubt we get as high or sustained as 1978. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, deathstar9 said: You don’t need a triple phaser to get low 960’s though. Boxing Day and Jan 2018 did it with no triple phase. Feb 1978 was probably the best wind snow storm in the last 100 years and it was only around 980 with a 1040 high nearby giving it a huge gradient. 1996 also had an impressive high nearby and a tight gradient. With this one looks like a 1050 high but it’s further afield in central Canada. Totally agree. Its a nice to have, not a need to have. For this one, it could be the stick of dynamite that gets us to 960s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 16 minutes ago, Heisy said: Someone in your region will get 24-36” depending where the h7 band ends up. Really jealous. Should get like 6-10” here in Philly, but your region is primed imo. I think you hit 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: What are you thinking for us neighbor? All in or still cautious? My forecast as of now for my location is 10-15”. Trying to stay reasonable. Banding and extent of NW push will tell the tale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East of the Parkway Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Mesos will have more weight than globals soon. This is a very extreme storm. A sub 970 storm south of LI is no joke Contextually concerning when you look at Sandy being 940. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, MANDA said: My forecast as of now for my location is 10-15”. Trying to stay reasonable. Banding and extent of NW push will tell the tale. I’m bumping mine to 8-14 for MMU 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, East of the Parkway said: Contextually concerning when you look at Sandy being 940. If the Nam verifies we're all getting a blizzard and there will be major coastal flooding. Strong winds well inland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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