The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[nycwinter]

20 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

my point and click for sayreville is 11-22 total.. Dani beckstrom on Channel 7 still had the 8-12 map up from last night...smh

accuweather forecasts are the worst and their even worse on the radio side where they have 3-6 inches as of last night..

[messier77]

54 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Do able but it will be snowing at that point. And even landing at 1:40pm you’ll have snow falling.

Thanks, I’m hoping that they’ll be willing to land in light snow.  As for making it back to NJ if we land, I guess I’ll leave my life in the hands of the Uber gods.

[Mail Man]

2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Just wild to think of where we were at and what the models were showing ( besides the GFS )  48 hours ago and where we are right now 

I was about to give up Thursday afternoon but the GFS refused to let it go.

[NsWx516]

1 minute ago, Mail Man said:

I was about to give up Thursday afternoon but the GFS refused to let it go.

I honestly think everyone was except the Gfs

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, Mail Man said:

I was about to give up Thursday afternoon but the GFS refused to let it go.

never give up good morning, i see some

of my posts were deleted.

 

I think this is just a sign that the westerly trend is over and the models will correct back to around where the GFS is. Remember all models trended towards the GFS yesterday 80% models had nothing. We will see by tomorrow but I honestly still think the euro is the most overrated model there is, icon may be better at this point! We'll see but to me it just looks like the west trend is over and they'll just wobble back and forth between GFS and maybe Euro AI solution!

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, NsWx516 said:

I honestly think everyone was except the Gfs

Agreed I think only Anthony and Weathergeek might have been the only 2 humans to want that to continue - I told my son " I just wish the one weather model that is holding out will cave so I can get some sleep and just end this slow pain "

[JonClaw]

I see Upton has blessed the title of this thread. 

Excellent 

[WeatherGeek2025]

we pretty much have consensus here, i think it's between nam euro and gfs at this point it's safe to say 10-20 inches are a lock NYC and east, with blizzard winds blowing and drifting definitely a concern! What happens west of Bergen county is still in question and will be ironed out today!

[Blizzardo]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

we pretty much have consensus here, i think it's between nam euro and gfs at this point it's safe to say 10-20 inches are a lock NYC and east, with blizzard winds blowing and drifting definitely a concern! What happens west of Bergen county is still in question and will be ironed out today!

18-24 NYC and west with 24+ NYC and east is my call...lol

[EasternLI]

6z AI EPS is a banger

[bluewave]

I like the model blend idea of a Monmouth and Ocean County NJ to Suffolk County jackpot going potentially 18”+ in those areas. The storm track near or just east of the 40/70 benchmark usually favors this scenario. Most other areas are looking like a solid 12”+. The blizzard conditions will make measurement a challenge and there will be the best drifting potential in years. 

[Allsnow]

 

[EasternLI]

What an impressive NMB to see. And this is the more conservative experimental version 5.0

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Good morning New York City.

Blizzard is on its way but today will be a beautiful day to run your errands before the storm hits. 

 

Currently 34 degrees with the beautiful sunrise coming up. It's going to be a relatively warm day today with a high of 47 light and variable winds. 

 

Tonight the temperature drops to around 34 degrees as the clouds roll in by sunrise. 

 

Sunday: we have a blizzard warning here with expected snow during the day around 2-4 inches during the day. 

 

Sunday night blizzard conditions, dangerous wind  up to 70 mph in highest gusts, possible thundersnow and heavy wet snow with a low of 26 degrees with 10-14 inches of snow. 

 

Monday: Blizzard conditions in the morning with heavy snow, tapering down to light snow showers by early afternoon and ending west to east by 3pm high of 34 very windy. 3-6 inches of additional snow. 

Total storm snow accumulations of 15 to 24 inches possible. 

Monday Night: Cold and windy night low of 22

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

How have you been doing? Everyone has been asking about you. Really glad you are back. 

[TJW014]

NBM is 28.1" of snow for here. Would be biggest storm since Boxing Day. 

Going with 18" for here. 

[Yanksfan]

Anyone have the 6z EURO liquid total map? It was 0.7 for NYC at 00z.

[coastalplainsnowman]

7 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

A few important aspects to keep in mind:
- There is no human intervention in that dataset. The underlying NWS NDFD forecast is applied to the WPC super ensemble data and does adjust the statistical spectrum a bit, but this is done automatically.

- There may be time lagging affecting the low end members of the super ensemble, with various inputs possibly being earlier model cycles.

- The above being said, given the extreme top end of the spectrum which we can see with the GFS (and many GEFS members) and NAM, those top end 90th percentile amounts are physically plausible, and again, automatically derived (with a ratio applied I believe).

- There is certainly a good deal less spread now than earlier today, but you'll still have some ensemble members that have much lower QPF at this range (and some of these may be from earlier cycles, as noted above). For this reason, the 10th percentile low end amount undeniably seems ridiculous given the extreme top end amounts, but in this case, the 10th percentile is not completely unreasonable. As spread decreases, that will most certainly come up on subsequent runs.

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk
 

This is great info, thank you.  I was going to just click the Thanks emoji as I did and leave it that since I had nothing meaningful to contribute, except to say that I noticed this morning that as of the latest update the High End was kept in the update, but the Low End was dropped entirely.  I'm guessing that's out of concern that whatever it might have currently shown,  people will see that and not t take this seriously, in an update where 'take this seriously' is rightly the whole point.

[nycsnow]

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

How have you been doing? Everyone has been asking about you. Really glad you are back. 

All is well, @bluewave

Thank you for asking. I hope all is well with you. I missed/look forward to reading your weather posts 

[EasternLI]

QPF 6z euro and 6z EPS standard version

[North and West]

.

[Allsnow]

Just now, North and West said:

.

Classic lol

[ForestHillWx]

Euro moving every so slightly west was telegraphed on last nights ensemble. Tip was of the opinion, as of yesterday afternoon, that it’s not done trending west; to be determined. 

I’m not overly concerned about the qpf projections up here in northwest NJ; the 700 fronto that’s been depicted is phenomenal. 

Letting the weenie flag fully fly: I can’t wait to see the developed ccb as this thing churns toward the cape. 

[njwx7]

15 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

SREF continues to get more bullish. Crazy 

[RU848789]

Personally I'm good with the NWS going with the "average" model camp (8-12" NW of 95, 12-16" near/along 95 and 16-20" for the coast) from a public safety/trust perspective, since going with the low end model average and having something near the high end verify would have people not quite ready for an historic storm. They can easily bump down from the average camp if things trend that way before the storm starts and easily bump up towards something historic (the 10% high case) if the low end models bump up significantly. I am a bit surprised their 10% low end case is so low - that implies they still think there's a worst credible case for the system to go back to the Euro 2 days ago. That would kind of suck.

[Heisy]

All is well, [mention=564]bluewave[/mention]
Thank you for asking. I hope all is well with you. I missed/look forward to reading your weather posts 

No more Philly discord?!

NAM usually follows the NMB member so expect the 12z NAM to be pretty tucked imo

[TJW014]

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Personally I'm good with the NWS going with the "average" model camp (8-12" NW of 95, 12-16" near/along 95 and 16-20" for the coast) from a public safety/trust perspective, since going with the low end model average and having something near the high end verify would have people not quite ready for an historic storm. They can easily bump down from the average camp if things trend that way before the storm starts and easily bump up towards something historic (the 10% high case) if the low end models bump up significantly. I am a bit surprised their 10% low end case is so low - that implies they still think there's a worst credible case for the system to go back to the Euro 2 days ago. That would kind of suck.

2-29 inches. What a spread lmao

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

No more Philly discord?!

NAM usually follows the NMB member so expect the 12z NAM to be pretty tucked imo

I stepped away from everything 

 

Tell tombo I said hello 

[hinyho]

If you look closer at the map above, the snowfall total range is from 1" to 36" at Toms River NJ.  Meaning all or nothing. lol.  I guess they are covering themselves to say they predicted every possible outcome.  I think temperatures will be from 0 to 100 degrees tomorrow.  oh, and the GFS is correct and has been all week.