The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

57 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Highest recorded snowfall by me in Montville, NJ (Morris County, NJ) was about 27 inches in the March 2018 storm. Would love to experience that again.

And a fun fact…there has never been 30 inches of snow ever officially recorded in NJ. 29.7 is the record in 1947.

Do you think we will ever see 30+ inches, especially with today’s seemingly deeper strengthening storms?


.

It's happened several times. 

[bluewave]

On 2/19/2026 at 11:03 AM, jconsor said:

This article speaks more about skill of AI models in medium range (beyond day 5), but I believe same applies in the 3-4 day range - AIFS ensemble has superior skill to EPS and other physics-based ensembles.  AI-GEFS has superior skill to GEFS but isn't as skillful as AIFS ensemble.

https://x.com/Brady_Wx/status/2021333729088585882

Given that GEFS and GEPS are closer than the EPS to AIFS ensemble (as well as AI-GEFS) in terms of more amplified trough initially over Ohio Valley/Great Lakes with more downstream ridging, and deeper upper low closer to the mid-Atlantic coast, I would weight them more than EPS in this setup. All models shifted in that direction (when compared to yesterday's 0z run) after ingesting a new batch of upper air data from recon.

It appears to me that the EPS under-amplification bias may be at play here and it is most likely playing catch-up here, like the AI summary that Sacrus posted intimated happens sometimes in NE US winter storms.

Excellent article. Thanks very much for posting. The AIFS single was really amplified with this system since later last weekend.

I like that it corrects the OP Euro and ensembles suppression tendency we have often seen since the Euro upgrade around 2015 with coastal storms along the East Coast.

Open Snow also put out the best seasonal long range winter forecast that I have seen for this winter back in November. Although the write-up didn’t mention it, wonder if they have an experimental in house AI seasonal forecast tool which they didn’t want to mention yet?
 

https://opensnow.com/news/post/november-update-2025-2026-winter-forecast-preview

Skilful global seasonal predictions from a machine learning weather model trained on reanalysis data

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01198-3

[nycsnow]

[T5403CG]

Most of our posters benchmark is different from New England's benchmark.  Nyc and Nj's bm is east of AC.  Also the west trend on the models hasn't stopped. 

Got ya... but every model is tracking this SE of 40/70... that is not conducive to NYC and west having the best dynamics... it screams Long Island and Eastern New England...

Just trying to understand where the thought process is that the track will be inside 40/70 (That's where Boxer Day storm tracked)?

Need some education so I can see what I am missing here...

Thanks...

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[boxingdayblizzard]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

every single model shows a back bent warm front over us in the mid levels except for the longer range rgem. i am very confident of 18+ for most of us

these comments don't come often from forky! that's when you know it's exciting...

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Most of our posters benchmark is different from New England's benchmark.  Nyc and Nj's bm is east of AC.  Also the west trend on the models hasn't stopped. 

Isnt our benchmark 40/70?

[Mail Man]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

That's nuts.

[boxingdayblizzard]

00Z NAM initializing...

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

Isnt our benchmark 40/70?

depends on how the low gets there

[jdj5211]

NAM is running! Here we go. Buckle up!


.

[T5403CG]

these comments don't come often from forky! that's when you know it's exciting...

This may be stupid, but what's a bent warm front and what levels can you see it?

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[EasternLI]

Looked at the 00z HRRR for the hell of it. Was already on board with an amped solution too lol

[Rjay]

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Yep that's the shift the models have made last 24 hours 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Ridge pumping nicely out west on the nam and in the perfect location

[BoulderWX]

I don’t expect 00z to be as good as 18z since that was a near perfect depiction, I’m just looking for it to have a similar idea. This far out with the NAM it’s all we can ask for. 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Looked at the 00z HRRR for the hell of it. Was already on board with an amped solution too lol

Yes it was. 

[MANDA]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

depends on how the low gets there

For my area of NW NJ I like an eventual track to near Block Island to across the Cape Cod Canal.

[cleetussnow]

54 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

A few things and about temps with this storm

1) An occluding low is becoming vertically stacked, so you need to worry less about the surface low having a good track, but getting skunked by an 850mb low 150 miles west of you flooding the region with warm air

2) The precipitation will be very, very heavy so it will naturally cool the column

3) The deeper the low, the more the pressure gradient force overwhelms the coriolis force resulting in a more direct high->Low wind direction. In other words, winds will be more northerly than one would expect from a low in that position

4) The low eventually will lose northward momentum and pinwheel eastward, so whatever push of warm air there may be (which there wont really) will be gone

The big thing I'd be worried about if this thing keeps coming north is a big-ol wedge of dry air just being hurled northward into somewhere over eastern LI/southern New England

 

oh yeah Miller As dry slots suck

[EasternLI]

Nam a bit more amped plus less confluence out ahead...

[jm1220]

49 minutes ago, Rjay said:

No I don't. Well maybe Nassau. Again we are kinda far out for this though.  Nnj down to the Jersey shore, nyc and lower HV would be my guess right now but that could easily change over the next 24-36 hours.  

I think as long as the 500/700/850 lows are all closed off and go SE of us we’re fine in terms of mixing being an issue. If we start seeing those trend to tracking over us we have a problem. 

[Rjay]

You want the mid-level lows to travel through this slot like the gfs shows

 

 

[Rjay]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I think as long as the 500/700/850 lows are all closed off and go SE of us we’re fine in terms of mixing being an issue. If we start seeing those trend to tracking over us we have a problem. 

Mixing wont be an issue imo

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I don’t expect 00z to be as good as 18z since that was a near perfect depiction, I’m just looking for it to have a similar idea. This far out with the NAM it’s all we can ask for. 

Same here but then again everything today has surpassed my expectations.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, T5403CG said:

Got ya... but every model is tracking this SE of 40/70... that is not conducive to NYC and west having the best dynamics... it screams Long Island and Eastern New England...

Just trying to understand where the thought process is that the track will be inside 40/70 (That's where Boxer Day storm tracked)?

Need some education so I can see what I am missing here...

Thanks...

Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk


 

Boxing Day jackpotted west of NYC since it tracked west of the benchmark and brushed Cape Cod.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Meteorology12262010

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Just now, Rjay said:

Mixing wont be an issue imo

Do you Think start as rain with a quick change over is possible?

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

oh yeah Miller As dry slots suck

If the 700/850 low tracks over you sure. Again too soon to know where the best banding sets up but that’s what I’m really watching. That and how soon they close off. When you see the closed 700/500mb lows and deepening low not occluded yet you have a great feed of moisture into a healthy CCB. 

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Same here but then again everything today has surpassed  my expectations.

I think shades of NEMO and BDB haunt me. I was on the wrong side of both by 20-35 miles 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, bluewave said:

Boxing Day jackpotted west of NYC since it tracked right across Cape Cod.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Meteorology12262010

As long as it's a strong, dynamic system then I prefer a very tucked in track maybe 50-75 miles SE of ACY

[David-LI]

King NAM is running