deathstar9 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I was half joking when I said the GFS was due to score one of these hits, looks like it finally did but to a degree it was right for the wrong reason. This is a rare period historically to see big snow events here and you can see that on the daily snow records on 2/22 and 2/23, mostly all 6 inches or lower. It’s strange Feb 20-28/29 is weak for big storms even compared to March 1-20. Only one I can think of was the 2010 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lawnguyland Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: And yea Channel 4 was talking the big B word for you folks out on Eastern LI. I think they need to talk about it for the entire NYC Metro area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Rmine1 said: Starting to get concerned about the storm being too “tucked” for the immediate coast. We all know that may make at least a portion of the storm wet, not white For much of this forum, there's room for more tuck without mixing issues... and we are within 48 hours of go time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, TriPol said: I think they need to talk about it for the entire NYC Metro area. They will tomorrow night if need be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Metasequoia said: For much of this forum, there's room for more tuck without mixing issues... and we are within 48 hours of go time. but several forecasters are mentioning rain to start - very confusing situation and differences of opinion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: It's really difficult to get the sustained winds for the 3 hours but we will find out! Haha Only need gusts to at least 35 for 3 consecutive hours. There's a visibility parameter as well. That's why there can be blizzard conditions without a cloud in the sky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Jan 2016 dropped 33” at my house in Chester; I’m all in on this one. Let’s friggen get it! Edit: You never want to touch the money, but the trends on this, for all models over the past 24, I’m sold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, NEG NAO said: but several forecasters are mentioning rain to start - very confusing situation and differences of opinion I don't think the rain at the front end is about a close approach. It's about a marginally cold airmas coupled with light precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Highest recorded snowfall by me in Montville, NJ (Morris County, NJ) was about 27 inches in the March 2018 storm. Would love to experience that again. And a fun fact…there has never been 30 inches of snow ever officially recorded in NJ. 29.7 is the record in 1947. Do you think we will ever see 30+ inches, especially with today’s seemingly deeper strengthening storms? . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: Highest recorded snowfall by me in Montville, NJ (Morris County, NJ) was about 27 inches in the March 2018 storm. Would love to experience that again. And a fun fact…there has never been 30 inches of snow ever officially recorded in NJ. 29.7 is the record in 1947. Do you think we will ever see 30+ inches, especially with today’s seemingly deeper strengthening storms? . There has been officially 30"+ in NJ. Boxing Day storm was one and so was January 1996. I think probably the most recent was January 2016. Had 31" in southeast Morris County. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Metasequoia said: I don't think the rain at the front end is about a close approach. It's about a marginally cold airmas coupled with light precip. Correct. Whatever hundredths of QPF we lose to a mix won't matter once the storm gets going. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. T. Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: Highest recorded snowfall by me in Montville, NJ (Morris County, NJ) was about 27 inches in the March 2018 storm. Would love to experience that again. And a fun fact…there has never been 30 inches of snow ever officially recorded in NJ. 29.7 is the record in 1947. Do you think we will ever see 30+ inches, especially with today’s seemingly deeper strengthening storms? . Mount Holly Snow Totals for Brick NJ during Boxing Day Blizzard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: I don't think the rain at the front end is about a close approach. It's about a marginally cold airmas coupled with light precip. blizzard of 2006 had hours of rain at the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: Highest recorded snowfall by me in Montville, NJ (Morris County, NJ) was about 27 inches in the March 2018 storm. Would love to experience that again. And a fun fact…there has never been 30 inches of snow ever officially recorded in NJ. 29.7 is the record in 1947. Do you think we will ever see 30+ inches, especially with today’s seemingly deeper strengthening storms? . I believe there was numerous 30+ recordings in the Blizzard of 96'. I had over 30 in Bloomfield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: but several forecasters are mentioning rain to start - very confusing situation and differences of opinion there could be some white rain south and east of let's say Bergen county for a two hour period but it won't be the heavy precip so it won't really matter that much. Honestly i think we snow the whole time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, David-LI said: blizzard of 2006 had hours of rain at the start that was a different setup, it was heavy rain to heavy snow. completely different setup. we're not raining guys come on here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NsWx516 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, David-LI said: blizzard of 2006 had hours of rain at the start So did the Blizzard of 1888 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The storm isn’t hugging the coast and turning people to rain guys lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxingdayblizzard Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 32 minutes ago, [email protected] said: This is 2010 Boxing Day redux! hence the username I have, one of the best storms I've experienced in my life time! Let's see how this one pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Jan 2016 dropped 33” at my house in Chester; I’m all in on this one. Let’s friggen get it! Edit: You never want to touch the money, but the trends on this, for all models over the past 24, I’m sold. You think neighbor? I’m thinking 5-8” at the moment for MMU; significantly increasing as you head east. Think someone on the island sees 20+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The storm isn’t hugging the coast and turning people to rain guys lol. We'll see how things go over the next day but I like areas west of us to see the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: then as soon as the sun goes down the fun begins - and this could be more difficult to remove then the last storm because it will mainly fall overnight Nothing is tougher to remove than sleet, especially when it falls at 15F and freezes solid if people didn't remove it soon enough (I did, but many friends didn't). This won't be a picnic though, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: We'll see how things go over the next day but I like areas west of us to see the most snow. So you’re thinking Li isn’t jackpot zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: We'll see how things go over the next day but I like areas west of us to see the most snow. you're literally in the most perfect spot for this storm. I like Plum Island as the Jackpot for this storm! Why because there'll be ocean enhanced snow with those gusty winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 A few things and about temps with this storm 1) An occluding low is becoming vertically stacked, so you need to worry less about the surface low having a good track, but getting skunked by an 850mb low 150 miles west of you flooding the region with warm air 2) The precipitation will be very, very heavy so it will naturally cool the column 3) The deeper the low, the more the pressure gradient force overwhelms the coriolis force resulting in a more direct high->Low wind direction. In other words, winds will be more northerly than one would expect from a low in that position 4) The low eventually will lose northward momentum and pinwheel eastward, so whatever push of warm air there may be (which there wont really) will be gone The big thing I'd be worried about if this thing keeps coming north is a big-ol wedge of dry air just being hurled northward into somewhere over eastern LI/southern New England 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 So you’re thinking Li isn’t jackpot zone?Cmon don’t you know.. Monmouth county jackpot incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: We'll see how things go over the next day but I like areas west of us to see the most snow. Long Island looks to be in the jackpot zone on the models but we know that bands usually set uo elsewhere than where the models have it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: We'll see how things go over the next day but I like areas west of us to see the most snow. Any particular reasoning for your thinking? I'm personally more worried about areas north jackpotting relative to LI than west. Theres only so far this thing can go west given the location and orientation of the upper level features Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, MJO812 said: Long Island looks to be in the jackpot zone on the models but we know that bands usually set uo elsewhere than where the models have it. Long Island and Jersey shores or just inland are prime spots for thundersnow for this storm in my opinion! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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