Rjay Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: legit possibility. can't forecast more than 12" for the city as it stands this second but there is certainly 18-24" upside Ofc. It's too far out. Def looking HECy af tho 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 wow - I am only getting 4 - 8 inches now ! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 9 minutes ago, bncho said: Track is trending NW but big totals are shifting SW... Borrowed from MA forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: wow - I am only getting 4 - 8 inches now ! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: wow - I am only getting 4 - 8 inches now ! According to Steve D.. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 wow - I am only getting 4 - 8 inches now !That was released earlier today, before the models went gangbusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Ofc. It's too far out. Def looking HECy af tho yeah this resembles every HECS we have had. textbook 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: wow - I am only getting 4 - 8 inches now ! He'll have 20" in his backyard and still call it a successful forecast 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said: That was released earlier today, before the models went gangbusters . it says 2:40 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: wow - I am only getting 4 - 8 inches now ! Noticed how he jackpots himself again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Borrowed from MA forum. The inverted trough seems to be merging into the larger area of snow too. I remember something similar in the Feb 2013 storm where that similar kind of feature rotated east and gave us all heavy snow for hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 EPS coming in hot. More west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah this resembles every HECS we have had. textbook If it follows that playback then amounts will keep going up until start time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Did The Mouth Of the South release a snow map yet ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 So the EURO AI joins the GFS and NAM 12+ GFS NAM EURO AI 6 to 12 EURO UKMET ICON About 6 RGEM Good to see 1 non us model join the 12 plus. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: So the EURO AI joins the GFS and NAM 12+ GFS NAM EURO AI 6 to 12 EURO UKMET ICON About 6 RGEM Good to see 1 non us model join the 12 plus. I think the euro AI had 1.4" liquid for nyc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If it follows that playback then amounts will keep going up until start time i mean... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: wow - I am only getting 4 - 8 inches now ! I saw that and wanted to punch someone! Rain to snow in all zones, really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 EPS 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I've never seen such a yuge disparity between the high end and low end Upton forecasts. Not even close! High End: 24-30" Low End: 0.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Did The Mouth Of the South release a snow map yet ? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Rjay said: I think the euro AI had 1.4" liquid for nyc one thing to note at the beginning of the event the ratio's will be lower than 10 :1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Eps shifted more west. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 KEY MESSAGE 2... Confidence has increased enough to warrant winter storm watch issuance for the entire CWA. Latest 12Z guidance coming into better agreement on potent northern stream shortwave energy diving SW from wrn Canada and the northern Plains into the plains and mid Mississippi valley by Sunday morning, phasing with southern stream coming out of the SW states and Mexico to carve out a deep closed low aloft over the Mid Atlantic and induce rapid cyclogenesis off the Mid Atlantic coast, with the surface low bombing out from from 1008 mb off the N Carolina coast Sunday morning to 970-975 mb near 38-39N/71W by Monday morning, then passing just outside the 40N/70W benchmark Monday afternoon, GFS still more intense and closer to the coast than the ECMWF, with its heaviest snow bands directly over the area as opposed to just offshore. NAM and SREF have both trended toward a heavier snowfall scenario as well, which has been a good signal in past heavy snowfall events. Snow should start Sunday morning, and may mix with rain at times especially in the NYC metro area, NE NJ and western Long Island. Then as precip intensity picks up later in the day Sunday p-type should become all snow throughout. Heaviest snow looks to fall from late day Sunday into Monday morning, then snow tapers off Monday afternoon. Greatest likelihood of seeing 6+ inches will be along the coast, especially eastern Long Island where up to a foot of accumulation is possible. Winds will also be strong Sunday night into Monday morning especially along the coast as the sfc low deepens, with blowing and drifting snow and some downed tree limbs as winds gust to at least 40-45 mph, and possible blizzard conditions in Suffolk, and near blizzard conditions elsewhere along the coast including NYC. NAM/GFS both signal potential for wind gusts to 60 mph late Sunday night into Monday morning, though these winds can sometimes be overdone in heavy snow events. If trends for heavy snow and strong winds continue to increase and expand northward, the potential for blizzard conditions could encompass all coastal areas. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into Monday morning. Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: one thing to note at the beginning of the event the ratio's will be lower than 10 :1 It's honestly nothing to note at all 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Eps shifted more west. And north!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Rjay said: It's honestly nothing to note at all Yeah lol, there’ll be bands with 3-4” per hour easy in this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: I think the euro AI had 1.4" liquid for nyc The best part is the models seem to be still trending towards the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now