Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[wasnow215]

13 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

Or everything else is "finding" a storm that isn't there… We shall see

Euro -"what storm" seems to be the right solution

[mitchnick]

Can't believe the blizzard at the end of the Gfs run got no mention.  It was even loading up at the end of the Euro run....NO, NO, don't shoot!!! Lol

[CAPE]

The vort max interactions are just a bit too discombobulated, and phase a little too late thus offshore low development.

GFS is the still the closest to a good outcome among the deterministic guidance, and nothing is etched in stone at this juncture. 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The vort max interactions are just a bit too discombobulated, and phase a little too late thus offshore low development.

GFS is the still the closest to a good outcome among the deterministic guidance, and nothing is etched in stone at this juncture. 

It seemed to me that the southern stream system, which was hanging back in the decent outcomes, shot east and then there wasn't enough left for the northern stream vort to ignite. Which, if correct, there's still a slim shot if the southern energy moves east quicker, preferably leaving something behind. All speculation by me, of course.

[WxUSAF]

Seems the most common theme on guidance for Sunday is an inverted trough somewhere through the region as a focus for precip (snow or rain). Those are notoriously tricky to locate well in advance but can give some lucky people a nice event if the stars align. Even the AI models have this IVT to some degree. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems the most common theme on guidance for Sunday is an inverted trough somewhere through the region as a focus for precip (snow or rain). Those are notoriously tricky to locate well in advance but can give some lucky people a nice event if the stars align. Even the AI models have this IVT to some degree. 

That usually ends up working out for places further north.

[MillvilleWx]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems the most common theme on guidance for Sunday is an inverted trough somewhere through the region as a focus for precip (snow or rain). Those are notoriously tricky to locate well in advance but can give some lucky people a nice event if the stars align. Even the AI models have this IVT to some degree. 

Yeah, that was a big take away for me this morning when interrogating like I normally do once I get settled in. The afternoon package yesterday started giving me hints of this being a sloppier phase, or phasing a bit too late leading to a more eastern solution, or weaker and south. I think the major bomb solutions are relatively off the table, but there is still some time for adjustment. So long as the vort ejection gets sheared to the west before any phasing, we will not be looking at any massive outputs, but we can still score something in this setup. It's not completely dead yet........

[mitchnick]

6z EuroAI still showing a "storm" with similar accumulations to the 0z run. All I have is TT to go off of, so no snowfall map is available to me.

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z EuroAI still showing a "storm" with similar accumulations to the 0z run. All I have is TT to go off of, so no snowfall map is available to me.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z AI EURO

[Ji]

Euro has snow again

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Euro has snow again

Weird output but it’s a start 

 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro has snow again

 

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Weird output but it’s a start 

 

What is that some sort of dual low where the primary low transfers to the coastal?  And the middle kinda gets screwed in the process.  I am sure the screw zone will move around a bit.  

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro has snow again

The northern vort is igniting what's hanging off the coast. See my post above. It ain't over until...

[mitchnick]

Just now, BristowWx said:

 

What is that some sort of dual low where the primary low transfers to the coastal?  And the middle kinda gets screwed in the process.  I am sure the screw zone will move around a bit.  

Inverted trough. See WxUSAF post above.

[mitchnick]

Seems like the AI is the broad brush, best case scenario of the operational. 

[Ji]

The northern vort is igniting what's hanging off the coast. See my post above. It ain't over until...

We are tracking a much different event now but we can still get a moderate snow

[aldie 22]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro has snow again

In a specific location lol

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Weird output but it’s a start 

 

There’s your IVT

49 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That usually ends up working out for places further north.

Yup, they tend to move north and east with shorter leads. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

12 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

In a specific location lol

You're new here aren't you?  Lol

[snowfan]

27 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Weird output but it’s a start 

 

Its really the same idea as the GFS. Need to add on caveats that it is unlikely to accumulate that much w marginal temps during daylight hours. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

don’t think I’ve ever seen an inverted trough over Shenandoah national park! I expect that to move closer to the coast. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There’s your IVT

Yup, they tend to move north and east with shorter leads. 

The next time one of those works out for us out here will be the first time. 

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

We are tracking a much different event now but we can still get a moderate snow

It's called salvaging chicken salad from chicken shiat!

Big improvement on Eps over 0z too.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

This kind of “fail” is much more palatable than our typical miller b nyc or Boston blizzard.  Maybe we can still reel in a nice moderate snowfall. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It's called salvaging chicken salad from chicken shiat!

Big improvement on Eps over 0z too.

That’s nice 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's called salvaging chicken salad from chicken shiat!

Big improvement on Eps over 0z too.

Oh hey that looks pretty good! 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just now, dailylurker said:

I mean.. they work all the time. In 47 years I've experienced one lol. 

That makes your batting average like Ted Williams compared to us.  Lol

[LeesburgWx]

Yea, if we can get 4-6” of broad brush wet snow where every branch and nook is covered,  I’ll take it in a heartbeat. There have been so many 12-20” outputs this year that I can’t even bother getting excited anymore in the extreme solutions.

[aldie 22]

17 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

You're new here aren't you?  Lol

Time to break your curse man i brought a 30" snowstorm to freaking Nokesville in 2016 I've had good luck in Leesburg and Aldie...the turd is turning out here hang in there