Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[wasnow215]

13 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

Or everything else is "finding" a storm that isn't there… We shall see

Euro -"what storm" seems to be the right solution

[mitchnick]

Can't believe the blizzard at the end of the Gfs run got no mention.  It was even loading up at the end of the Euro run....NO, NO, don't shoot!!! Lol

[CAPE]

The vort max interactions are just a bit too discombobulated, and phase a little too late thus offshore low development.

GFS is the still the closest to a good outcome among the deterministic guidance, and nothing is etched in stone at this juncture. 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The vort max interactions are just a bit too discombobulated, and phase a little too late thus offshore low development.

GFS is the still the closest to a good outcome among the deterministic guidance, and nothing is etched in stone at this juncture. 

It seemed to me that the southern stream system, which was hanging back in the decent outcomes, shot east and then there wasn't enough left for the northern stream vort to ignite. Which, if correct, there's still a slim shot if the southern energy moves east quicker, preferably leaving something behind. All speculation by me, of course.

[WxUSAF]

Seems the most common theme on guidance for Sunday is an inverted trough somewhere through the region as a focus for precip (snow or rain). Those are notoriously tricky to locate well in advance but can give some lucky people a nice event if the stars align. Even the AI models have this IVT to some degree. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems the most common theme on guidance for Sunday is an inverted trough somewhere through the region as a focus for precip (snow or rain). Those are notoriously tricky to locate well in advance but can give some lucky people a nice event if the stars align. Even the AI models have this IVT to some degree. 

That usually ends up working out for places further north.

[MillvilleWx]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems the most common theme on guidance for Sunday is an inverted trough somewhere through the region as a focus for precip (snow or rain). Those are notoriously tricky to locate well in advance but can give some lucky people a nice event if the stars align. Even the AI models have this IVT to some degree. 

Yeah, that was a big take away for me this morning when interrogating like I normally do once I get settled in. The afternoon package yesterday started giving me hints of this being a sloppier phase, or phasing a bit too late leading to a more eastern solution, or weaker and south. I think the major bomb solutions are relatively off the table, but there is still some time for adjustment. So long as the vort ejection gets sheared to the west before any phasing, we will not be looking at any massive outputs, but we can still score something in this setup. It's not completely dead yet........

[mitchnick]

6z EuroAI still showing a "storm" with similar accumulations to the 0z run. All I have is TT to go off of, so no snowfall map is available to me.

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z EuroAI still showing a "storm" with similar accumulations to the 0z run. All I have is TT to go off of, so no snowfall map is available to me.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z AI EURO

[Ji]

Euro has snow again

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Euro has snow again

Weird output but it’s a start 

 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro has snow again

 

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Weird output but it’s a start 

 

What is that some sort of dual low where the primary low transfers to the coastal?  And the middle kinda gets screwed in the process.  I am sure the screw zone will move around a bit.  

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro has snow again

The northern vort is igniting what's hanging off the coast. See my post above. It ain't over until...

[mitchnick]

Just now, BristowWx said:

 

What is that some sort of dual low where the primary low transfers to the coastal?  And the middle kinda gets screwed in the process.  I am sure the screw zone will move around a bit.  

Inverted trough. See WxUSAF post above.

[mitchnick]

Seems like the AI is the broad brush, best case scenario of the operational. 

[Ji]

The northern vort is igniting what's hanging off the coast. See my post above. It ain't over until...

We are tracking a much different event now but we can still get a moderate snow

[aldie 22]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro has snow again

In a specific location lol

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Weird output but it’s a start 

 

There’s your IVT

49 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That usually ends up working out for places further north.

Yup, they tend to move north and east with shorter leads.