2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll have a blog update within the next few days, followed by an ENSO update next week.

[raindancewx]

July now looks a bit like July 2012 nationally, near average/cool West/South undercutting a very warm East/north. Sort of the summer version of how a +WPO often looks in early winter. The look is forecast to flip in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods almost to the exact opposite. I don't expect any of the big indices to remain locked in for the winter. For June, all the big Pacific drivers were of similar sign and magnitude to June 2012 - PNA, WPO, EPO. The Atlantic stuff (AO/NAO) opposite.

Wetter, warmer 2012-13, with blocking is my ceiling for the winter nationally. It's pretty cold for most of the US for brief periods, just not consistently.

You can see for right now when 2012 looked like a weak, east centered El Nino, the Pacific is similar. Atlantic is opposite.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Severe Weather Weenie Europe really beating the disturbed PV drum for next winter.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've come up with 6 Solar analogs and 5/6 averaged positive NAO in the seasonal mean (one was very slightly negative), 3/6 had at least one month between DJFM that averaged -NAO and it looks as though the strongest signal is March.

My money is on Chuck's formula shifting more positive from here on out, but I don't expect it to be an overwhelming signal, like last year.

Last year was okay up top. My thought was because the sun was so active it acted more like a peaking solar cycle even being technically past the peak as on the way up is generallybetter than down. Maybe it's already been mentioned by another(s) on or off this Board idk. Just a hunch. If correct, an active sun might give a better result....just a weenie WAG!

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

July now looks a bit like July 2012 nationally, near average/cool West/South undercutting a very warm East/north. Sort of the summer version of how a +WPO often looks in early winter. The look is forecast to flip in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods almost to the exact opposite. I don't expect any of the big indices to remain locked in for the winter. For June, all the big Pacific drivers were of similar sign and magnitude to June 2012 - PNA, WPO, EPO. The Atlantic stuff (AO/NAO) opposite.

Wetter, warmer 2012-13, with blocking is my ceiling for the winter nationally. It's pretty cold for most of the US for brief periods, just not consistently.

You can see for right now when 2012 looked like a weak, east centered El Nino, the Pacific is similar. Atlantic is opposite.

This goes along with the blocky March theme that I just mentioned....

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Last year was okay up top. My thought was because the sun was so active it acted more like a peaking solar cycle even being technically past the peak as on the way up is generallybetter than down. Maybe it's already been mentioned by another(s) on or off this Board idk. Just a hunch. If correct, an active sun might give a better result....just a weenie WAG!

Yea, last year was still close enough to the max that geomagnetic energy, which lags max by a couple of years and is most highly correlated with +NAO, hadn't really kicked in yet. My solar composite (top right) looked like the rest of my composites last year, which resembled the ultimate pattern.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Severe Weather Weenie Europe really beating the disturbed PV drum for next winter.

With +QBO? El Nino by itself does disturb the Stratosphere PV

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

 After researching this carefully, the following CFSv2 forecast map that JB posted for 2027 actually may not be the coldest population weighted CFSv2 JFM forecast overall for the U.S. on the site predicted in summer, which goes back to the progs for JFM of 2012:

 

  Regarding the following forecast, which was made in the summer of ‘13 for JFM of 2014, the U.S. overall may be colder than the above map on a population as opposed to geographically weighted basis because the most heavily populated NE to upper Midwest is significantly colder despite the warmer S:

 

 JB was specifically referring to pop. weighted this far out as he said: “ Population Weighted, CFSV2 with Coldest JFM in hits archive

I went back thru all CFSV2 forecasts since 2012 on its site.

This is the coldest JFM it has ever shown from this far out“

Now, regarding a JFM prog made at anytime of year, which JB wasn’t talking about, this one made in early Jan for 2013 appears to be the coldest of any I found on either a pop or geo wted basis:

 

 Interestingly, the aforementioned recent forecast for JFM 2027 is not that much colder than the following one also made in summer for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold):

 

 The above summer of ‘15 prog for JFM ‘16 ended up failing miserably for most of the country as this is what actually happened:

 This miserable failure, itself, doesn’t exactly bode well for those like me hoping the cold on the JB posted CFS for JFM ‘27 will verify well since we’re  again going into a super-Nino.

Do you have the September or October 2015 prediction for JFM 2016?

That JFM 2014 prediction was spot on, lol.

[snowman19]

1997 is the best analog for this event, by far. It’s uncanny. This Nino is going to be stronger however


 

 

[GaWx]

56 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Do you have the September or October 2015 prediction for JFM 2016?

That JFM 2014 prediction was spot on, lol.

 CFS Oct 1-10 mean prog for JFM ‘16:

Actual: fairly close N tier but too cold S 1/2:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

1997 is the best analog for this event, by far. It’s uncanny. This Nino is going to be stronger however


 

 

Biggest difference I see is in the central-subsurface. That could mean two things:

1) The event trends more basin wide than east-based going forward (which seasonal models have)

2) There may not be a major La Nina snap-back for 27-28

[Jebman]

On 7/14/2026 at 10:59 AM, csnavywx said:

We're at the point where this event catches up to '97 and passes it handily.

CSNavyWx, are you saying here that this particular Nino event is now getting stronger than the 97-98 Nino?

I remember N VA getting so damn much rain that winter!

What could this possibly mean for south central Texas? Man WE ARE ALREADY 33 INCHES FOR THE YEAR! This is only mid-July! Aren't Nino summers supposed to be hot and dry, especially in Texas?

I'd be fairly quick to run for the Mountains, but Record Mega Nino-induced orographic rains are NOT THE ANSWER!

Although the rains may not be the problem this winter in the mountains, especially the high Sierra. Places like Mammoth Ski Resort may get completely buried ALIVE in meters and meters and meters of wet Sierra Cement! Even the gondola pylons may be buried under about 200 feet of snow.

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Biggest difference I see is in the central-subsurface. That could mean two things:
1) The event trends more basin wide than east-based going forward (which seasonal models have)
2) There may not be a major La Nina snap-back for 27-28

This is a decidedly east-based (EP) event. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline strongly supports an extremely east-based event like 1997 was. The difference is that this one is going to be stronger than 1997-98….In fact, likely the strongest one in history

@LakePaste25

 

 

 

 

 

[George001]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Biggest difference I see is in the central-subsurface. That could mean two things:

1) The event trends more basin wide than east-based going forward (which seasonal models have)

2) There may not be a major La Nina snap-back for 27-28

I’m skeptical that we don’t get a major La Niña snap back after a Godzilla El Niño. There is a good chance this El Niño becomes the strongest event since the industrial era.

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is a decidedly east-based (EP) event. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline strongly supports an extremely east-based event like 1997 was. The difference is that this one is going to be stronger than 1997-98….In fact, likely the strongest one in history

@LakePaste25

 

 

 

 

 

He's not talking about right now, but that it will trend more basin wide as supported by subsurface and is depicted on seasonal models. Models apparently seeing westerly anomalies weakening during the fall allowing trades to move the warmth in the esst back west. 

[snowman19]

@Mitchnick Which models are you looking at that always show the trade winds coming back? Because you’ve been saying that for quite awhile now and all we’ve seen are record breaking WWBs, westerlies and a complete trade wind reversal

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

May was the month in 1998..it went from moderate nino to modeate nina in a month.

This could be the first event that is still a super El Niño into March using Nino 3.4

 

[TriPol]

Don't weenie tag me but, boy if we can get a phase between the the polar jet stream and what's sure to be an extremely active subtropical jet stream this winter, it could really get a historic snowstorm.

[EastonSN+]

21 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Don't weenie tag me but, boy if we can get a phase between the the polar jet stream and what's sure to be an extremely active subtropical jet stream this winter, it could really get a historic snowstorm.

I have been thinking the same thing. 1983 and 2016 shows the potential that super ninos bring. 97/98 is the feared example, however, the west PAC water temps are different this year which can help offset the E PAC warmth in terms of MJO. 

I am actually looking forward to the potential.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

With +QBO? El Nino by itself does disturb the Stratosphere PV

They are touting the pattern in the composite of Super El Nino events as being comparable to the precursor pattern in SSW events, which when combined with W QBO favors a warming in January or February. While I agree that any warming will be during the second half, I can't help but question why we haven't actually seen any SSW during super El Nino events, despite the similarity to the precursor pattern....then don't address that. They are also focusing on the low arctic sea ice as a big factor to predisposing the PV to disruption.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Mitchnick Which models are you looking at that always show the trade winds coming back? Because you’ve been saying that for quite awhile now and all we’ve seen are record breaking WWBs, westerlies and a complete trade wind reversal

Clearly my early hunch was wrong, as is often the case.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

He's not talking about right now, but that it will trend more basin wide as supported by subsurface and is depicted on seasonal models. Models apparently seeing westerly anomalies weakening during the fall allowing trades to move the warmth in the esst back west. 

Maybe it eventually becomes more east-based given how far east the warm pool is relative to other events, but right now at the surface this is clearly basin-wide and not as east-based as 1997. I have posted the weekly figures. It's similar to 2015. Do I think that this really matters? No, there is so much warm water throughout the ENSO basin. This all screams "variable pattern that is warm in the seasonal mean" to me.

[csnavywx]

8 hours ago, Jebman said:

CSNavyWx, are you saying here that this particular Nino event is now getting stronger than the 97-98 Nino?

I remember N VA getting so damn much rain that winter!

What could this possibly mean for south central Texas? Man WE ARE ALREADY 33 INCHES FOR THE YEAR! This is only mid-July! Aren't Nino summers supposed to be hot and dry, especially in Texas?

I'd be fairly quick to run for the Mountains, but Record Mega Nino-induced orographic rains are NOT THE ANSWER!

Although the rains may not be the problem this winter in the mountains, especially the high Sierra. Places like Mammoth Ski Resort may get completely buried ALIVE in meters and meters and meters of wet Sierra Cement! Even the gondola pylons may be buried under about 200 feet of snow.

Leaning towards it getting even stronger than the 1877-78 event, much less the 97/98 one, but that depends on whether or not we get any sort of pause in the WWB train/standing wave. That event was exotically warm across most of North America through the vast majority of the winter. In fact, farmers were planting their crops in Minnesota in February (yes, really).

Article covering that from Mark Seeley out of the University of Minnesota: 1878 El Niño saw crops planted in February

Texas itself was mild (relative to normal at the time) and very wet into the fall and especially winter. The current event you're suffering through is a side effect of a persistent rossby wave train that has set up in (at least in part) due to the response to the forcing induced by the developing Nino, but ENSO relationships in the summer are weaker and it's also partly just bad luck.

 

 

[GaWx]

57 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Leaning towards it getting even stronger than the 1877-78 event, much less the 97/98 one, but that depends on whether or not we get any sort of pause in the WWB train/standing wave. That event was exotically warm across most of North America through the vast majority of the winter. In fact, farmers were planting their crops in Minnesota in February (yes, really).

Article covering that from Mark Seeley out of the University of Minnesota: 1878 El Niño saw crops planted in February

Texas itself was mild (relative to normal at the time) and very wet into the fall and especially winter. The current event you're suffering through is a side effect of a persistent rossby wave train that has set up in (at least in part) due to the response to the forcing induced by the developing Nino, but ENSO relationships in the summer are weaker and it's also partly just bad luck.

 

 

 However in the SE US, as has often been the case with super El Niño winters, 1877-8, was actually near normal (mild Dec, cold Jan, and NN Feb). For example, Asheville was mild in Dec but then had a cold and snowy Jan (8.5” from 2 storms) followed by a NN Feb. DJF averaged NN.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=gsp

 

Also, Augusta and Savannah averaged NN.

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe it eventually becomes more east-based given how far east the warm pool is relative to other events, but right now at the surface this is clearly basin-wide and not as east-based as 1997. I have posted the weekly figures. It's similar to 2015. Do I think that this really matters? No, there is so much warm water throughout the ENSO basin. This all screams "variable pattern that is warm in the seasonal mean" to me.

The variability we have been getting into mid-July is more a function of the mid-latitude wave pattern doing its own thing relative to the tropics through mid-July with the strong -PDO +AMO summer 2020s background pattern.

It’s a first for the developing super El Niño composite including 2023, 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972. 

The current forcing from 150E to 30W is more impressive than both 2015 and 1997 combined.

This doesn’t rule out intervals of IO to MC forcing into the winter. But it could be an early sign than the -PDO +AMO mid-latitude enhanced ridge pattern could overlap with the super El Niño composite going into the winter. 
 

 

 

[GaWx]

More on the not mild 1877-8 in much of the E US:

NYC using 1869-1900 for normals

Dec 37.4 (+3.2) AN

Jan 29.9 (-0.4) NN

Feb 32.3 (+1.2) NN

So, DJF +1.3 NN with only Dec warmer than normal and even it wasn’t a torch

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

@csnavywx

[csnavywx]

Here's the continental composite using the 1861-1900 average to detrend. Note that a simple detrend, while helpful, still assumes that SST changes since then will scale linearly in terms of forcing (almost certainly not going to be the case). Nevertheless, the overall pattern makes it clear that the continent will mostly suffer from high frequency intrusion of downslope events, enhanced by anomalous moisture transport and a surplus moist static energy.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This could be the first event that is still a super El Niño into March using Nino 3.4
 

With the last 3 super El Niños, (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16), the last region to go back to ENSO neutral was region 1+2. That region stayed in a strong El Niño until spring in all 3, while the other regions went back to neutral first

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Here's the continental composite using the 1861-1900 average to detrend. Note that a simple detrend, while helpful, still assumes that SST changes since then will scale linearly in terms of forcing (almost certainly not going to be the case). Nevertheless, the overall pattern makes it clear that the continent will mostly suffer from high frequency intrusion of downslope events, enhanced by anomalous moisture transport and a surplus moist static energy.

This map agrees with many of the official SE station temps being NN (and even BN in FL as Jacksonville and other official temps confirm). It also shows that the torch was centered in the Midwest and Plains with no torch near the E coast (ex: NYC was ~+1.3F, not a torch). Much of NE coast was only 1-2 F AN per the city by city official temps.

[LakePaste25]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

More on the not mild 1877-8 in much of the E US:

NYC using 1869-1900 for normals

Dec 37.4 (+3.2) AN

Jan 29.9 (-0.4) NN

Feb 32.3 (+1.2) NN

So, DJF +1.3 NN with only Dec warmer than normal and even it wasn’t a torch

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

@csnavywx

I mean this goes into the discussion with @40/70 Benchmark that past super Ninos were not torches for the Northeast due to “clean forcing” as in, less competing Nina-like convection in the Maritime Continent. It used to be more of a torch signal for the upper Midwest. Only modern super Ninos have been torchy in the NE.