2026-2027 Super El Nino

[LakePaste25]

16 minutes ago, roardog said:

You could say that this year is its own oddball so far. A record El Niño for this time of year with a still strongly -PDO with a -PDO type of North American pattern. It just makes me leery that we’re suddenly going to see a flip to 1997 across North America. No doubt much of the rest of the globe is and will continue to look very Ninoish. 

We will see. I don’t deny that there could be *some* destructive interference. I’m just arguing that the event will be so strong and well-coupled that it won’t have a significant outcome that diverges from the canonical El Niño winter pattern (GOA low, strong southern stream, above normal N Tier, and wet S tier). 97-98 likely had constructive interference. 

[GaWx]

26 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I’m towards the “it’ll be a canonically coupled event” camp. And for the record I disagreed with takes during 24-25 and 25-26 that we’ll see predominate RNA pattern (we didn’t). So i’m not just saying it because I want it to be warm. 

Per NOAA in DJF (my def. of neutral PNA is between -0.25 and +0.25)

1. 2024-5 was, indeed, very +PNA with a whopping 72 of 90 days being +PNA vs 18 neutral PNA and zero -PNA! That’s amazing for La Niña! Going back to 1949-50, the only other DJF without a single -PNA day was 2002-3!

2. 2025-6 was actually a more typical La Niña with more -PNA than +PNA: 49 -PNA, 14 neutral PNA, and 27 +PNA.

 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

[jaxjagman]

We had a -PDO in the strong NINO of 57-58,we just had some good North Atlantic blocking,it was quite cold in the TnValley,maybe Global warming is a player now which seems possible,but that was quite unusual when you see waterways in Mid Tn freeze up in J/F,it that happens agin who knows

[TheClimateChanger]

I made this nifty graph to track the ongoing push for what could become the hottest month on record for the contiguous United States.

Through July 10, PRISM had the national temperature anomaly at roughly +2.12°F relative to 1991–2020. Based on observed temperatures and the current NBM forecast, my provisional estimate rises to around +2.60°F through July 21. Obviously, that figure remains subject to change as observations come in and forecasts evolve.

The historical significance would be difficult to overstate. July 1936 still holds the national record at +2.38°F and represents the oldest surviving warm-month temperature record in U.S. weather history. July 2012 came extraordinarily close at +2.34°F, but fell just short.

So this is not merely a run at another monthly record. It is a serious challenge to one of the most famous and durable benchmarks in the American climate record—one that has stood for 90 years.

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I made this nifty graph to track the ongoing push for what could become the hottest month on record for the contiguous United States.

Through July 10, PRISM had the national temperature anomaly at roughly +2.12°F relative to 1991–2020. Based on observed temperatures and the current NBM forecast, my provisional estimate rises to around +2.60°F through July 21. Obviously, that figure remains subject to change as observations come in and forecasts evolve.

The historical significance would be difficult to overstate. July 1936 still holds the national record at +2.38°F and represents the oldest surviving warm-month temperature record in U.S. weather history. July 2012 came extraordinarily close at +2.34°F, but fell just short.

So this is not merely a run at another monthly record. It is a serious challenge to one of the most famous and durable benchmarks in the American climate record—one that has stood for 90 years.

Except the United States just celebrated 250 years and your graph only goes back to 1900, soooo....

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Except the United States just celebrated 250 years and your graph only goes back to 1900, soooo....

It says hottest month "on record" - official NOAA/NCEI records date to 1895.

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It says hottest month "on record" - official NOAA/NCEI records date to 1895.

Irrelevant then. Wrong forum anyway.